Derby Over Analysis, One Step at a Time

With just one Kentucky Derby prep race left, the over analysis of the potential field can really begin and I'll start off with a relatively easy analysis.

Sometimes the simplest way to analyze at a race is to look at the information that is right in front of you. The Daily Racing Form publishes a set of speed figures, Beyers (named for their inventor Andy Beyer), and they give you a quick and easy look at how fast a horse ran in a particular race.

(If you want a little more info on the Beyer Speed Figures click http://drf.com/flash/drf_pp_tutorial.html)

For those who believe in the Beyer Speed Figures, there are only three horses who have broken through the 100 barrier.

Eskendereya, the likely 2-1 favorite, is the number king as he racked up a 109 in last week's Wood Memorial and 106 in the Fountain of Youth back in February.

Next on the list is Santa Anita Derby winner Sidney's Candy. The horse, who is named for weight loss giant Jenny Craig's late husband Sidney, scored a 100 last week.

The only other horse inside the Top 20 who has a landed a triple digit figure might surprise you. (It surprised me.) Endorsement, who won the Sunland Park Derby on March 28, earned a 101. And before you dismiss the Sunland Park Derby, it produced a little horse named Mine That Bird.

The only major horse who hasn't cracked 100 is 2-year-old champion Lookin at Lucky. One would imagine he might have if didn't get sideswiped in the Santa Anita Derby but he is widely considered to be one of the horses to beat in less than three weeks.

What do these numbers mean? Quite possibly nothing but at the very least you see, at a glance, who merits your attention.

There will be plenty of other ways to analyze the field of 20 but we'll take it slow and pass on additional insight as we countdown to the Derby.