Showing posts with label Lookin at Lucky. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lookin at Lucky. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Wednesday's Breeders' Cup Classic Notes

Zenyatta – The undefeated, reigning queen of Thoroughbred racing had her first gallop over the Churchill Downs track at about 9 a.m. on Wednesday, one day after arriving from California. A large crowd, including owners Jerry and Ann Moss, followed Zenyatta to the track and watched her gallop under regular exercise rider Steve Willard. Prior to the gallop, she was led to the back of the mile chute and allowed to stand and relax before her gallop.
“She did fine,” said trainer John Shirreffs with big smile on his face. “She seems very happy and really got over the track good.  They say that the Churchill track is a lot like the Oaklawn track. That’s what I’ve heard, but I’m from California. She seems to like it just fine.”
“I love seeing all the people come out to see her,” said Shirreffs. “I think that’s what makes her so special and how she will be remembered. Everyone that sees her becomes a fan. We’ve all become her fans.”
“She's terrific,” added Willard. “She couldn't be training any better. She loves the dirt. I knew it two years ago and I knew it going into Hot Springs (for the Apple Blossom at Oaklawn Park). She drives off it. It doesn't have the trampoline effect like the synthetics. The crowd was great. They were mostly quiet, a couple yelled, but for the most part very accommodating.”
 Zenyatta will school in the paddock with the horses running in the second race Wednesday.

Lookin At Lucky – The nation’s top 3yo contender got his first tour of the Churchill Downs track under exercise rider Jorge Alvarez on Wednesday morning after the renovation break, and Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert declared it a “super good” trip.
“There’s ‘good,’ and then there’s ‘super good’,” Baffert said around 8:30 a.m., as the Smart Strike colt galloped once around. “I like it when it’s super good. He looks so different on dirt; he looks like he’s happier, he enjoys himself. He moves so much smoother over the dirt than he does on synthetics. He’s doing well.”
In spite of a sixth-place finish in the May 1 Kentucky Derby in his last visit to Churchill Downs, Lookin At Lucky has stamped his credentials in the division with his latest win in the Oct. 2 Indiana Derby, a score in the Haskell Invitational, and a Preakness victory earlier this spring. According to Baffert, he’s still going strong in the second part of the year.
“The Indiana Derby showed a dimension we didn’t know he had, of really having the worst of it and still coming through in such an easy manner,” Baffert said. “I thought for sure down the backside that he was finished, you know, there’s no way he’s going to run the way the track was playing that day. And he went around there and came back like it was nothing for him. Even in the Kentucky Derby after getting wiped out, he still was trying to get there. And that’s the thing about this horse – he has so much determination. So it’s exciting to come into the race the way he’s doing right now.”
Lookin At Lucky arrived at Churchill on the same Tex Sutton charter flight that brought the unbeaten Zenyatta. He’ll tangle with older horses for the first time in the Classic.   
“I think a lot of us trainers, we’re all in the same boat, none of us have ever faced this kind of competition before,” Baffert said of taking on Zenyatta. “But it’s still worked out to be one of those Breeders’ Cup Classics where all the good horses have shown up, and it’s going to be a good race. It’s hard to get really excited about it because the mare’s in there, so I don’t want to get too excited. I just want to see a good run. Turning for home, I’d like to be in a spot to get a good run because every time he gets a chance to get in a good run, he wins.”

Quality Road – The third betting choice on the morning line went out for a leisurely gallop Wednesday morning, and trainer Todd Pletcher said he was much more concerned by his star’s post position (1) than the memory of last year’s starting gate issues that resulted in a late scratch from the Classic.
“We haven’t seen any indications it will be a problem,” Pletcher said. “I would say as far as disappointments go you could rank that one pretty high, but he’s been great ever since. When we laid out a program last fall this is what we had in mind this year.  Other than finishing a head short in the Whitney, everything has gone exactly the way we planned.”
The son of Elusive Quality has lost twice at the Classic distance of 1 ¼ m, but Pletcher doesn’t believe his 4yo has distance limitations.
           
“This is the kind of race where you worry about everything,” he said. “If you watch his race in the Donn and the Florida Derby, I can’t see a mile-and-a-quarter being an issue as strong as he finished his mile-and-an-eighth races. Even at a mile and an eighth, you’d be concerned just with the quality of the field. There’s no margin for error. I think you have to be ready to run your best race.”

Pletcher said he has never lost confidence in the colt.

“We felt like all along we’ve got the best horse in training,” said Pletcher, who have the rare opportunity of winning the Kentucky Derby (Super Saver)  and Classic at Churchill in the same year. “I think the Donn is the strongest race any horse has run this year.”

Blame – The 9-2 second choice for the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic took to the track Wednesday morning for an easy jog. Trainer Al Stall Jr. said everything was as it should be with the 4yo son of Arch, who will make the final start of his career against Zenyatta on Saturday before being retired to stud at Claiborne Farm.
Blame’s last work was turned in on Monday, an effortless 4f in 49 4/5 under jockey Garrett Gomez.

Espoir CityJockey Tetsuzo Sato breezed the 5yo horse 4f in 49 3/5 Wednesday morning.
Rather than using the Japanese style of breaking off at the finish line and working around the first turn, as he had done Sunday, trainer Akio Adachi had Sato work the two-time Group 1 winner to the wire, the conventional approach in North America.
“Today was sort of the final touch-up,” he said through interpreter Mikki Tsuge, West Coast Representative for the Japan Racing Association, who has been serving as the connections’ liaison at Churchill Downs. “We had the jockey on him. There were no instructions, no specific fractions requested. I just wanted the jockey to feel how the horse was.” 
            Adachi was pleased with the work. 
“I’m quite satisfied,” he said, adding the son of Gold Allure can handle whatever develops in the Classic. 
 Espoir City is quite versatile,” he said. “No instructions will be given to the jockey. We will leave it to him. If he breaks well, he can settle wherever. If he doesn’t break well, he can cover ground. I’m not concerned.” 
The Japan Cup Dirt and February Stakes winner drew post 11 in the 12-horse field. 
“I actually like it,” Adachi said. 
The trainer said his horse can deal with the American style of racing, with a quick early pace.
            “In his recent races, he has been up front,” he said. “I’m quite certain that he has the speed to keep up with the pace here. Also, I’m not concerned with the distance. This will be his first time going a mile-and-a-quarter, but I’m quite confident that he will handle the distance as well. I really don’t have any major concerns.”

Etched – The 5yo son of Forestry arrived at Barn 40 on the Churchill Downs backstretch at 3:30 Wednesday morning after leaving his Greentree Training Center in Saratoga Springs, N.Y. at 1 p.m. Tuesday. 
“Everything went well,” said trainer Kiaran McLaughlin from his Belmont Park base. “He just walked this morning and will train tomorrow.” 
Etched, who has won both his starts this year, will be making his Grade 1 debut while taking on Zenyatta and 10 other males in the Classic. 
“We have never run against Zenyatta. I have a great deal of respect for her. Obviously she’s the one to beat,” McLaughlin said. “It would be great for racing if she could retire undefeated, but for my family, I’d like to beat her. But if we don’t win, I’d hope she does win. If we do win, I can tell you I won’t feel bad for long.”
Alan Garcia has the mount on Etched.

First Dude/ Paddy O’Prado – First Dude galloped 1 ½ m on Wednesday and was then made to stand on the track “to get a good look at Zenyatta.”
The Dale Romans-trained First Dude enters the Classic off a runner-up finish in the Pennsylvania Derby and Romans feels that race was key to him finally reaching a level of maturity.
“He just needed the time to mature and I think he’s finally coming around,” said Romans. “I honestly believe he thinks he won that race because ever since that race, he’s been real cocky. He’s never been like that before." 
Paddy O' Prado, the El Prado colt who finished third in the Kentucky Derby, galloped 1 1/2 m over the main Churchill track on Wednesday in preparation for his return to dirt in the Classic after three wins and a second on turf.
“He's never trained better than he did this morning,” said Romans. “Both my horses are coming around at the right time. We're definitely not going to have any excuses if we lose.”
Both First Dude and Paddy O'Prado will gallop up to the Classic. 

Fly Down – The 3yo son of Mineshaft galloped 1 1/2m at Churchill Downs Wednesday morning under exercise rider Carlos Correa.
Fly Down, who broke his maiden at Churchill Downs last fall, has demonstrated a strong late kick that has powered him to victory in the Dwyer and second-place finishes in the Belmont Stakes and the Travers Stakes, which he lost by just a nose to Afleet Express.
“It’ll be an interesting race. I just hope the horses that are supposed to go…go, for our horse,” said Zito, obviously hoping that Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Haynesfield, Woodward victor Quality Road and others will set a strong early pace to complement his colt’s late-running effort. Zito acknowledged that Zenyatta would also be a beneficiary of a solid early pace.
“Naturally all eyes are on Zenyatta,” Zito said. “You are what your record is, and she has a perfect record. Obviously, this is her biggest test, win, lose, or draw.”
Julien Leparoux will be aboard Fly Down for the first time.

Haynesfield – In Saturday’s Classic, Turtle Bird Stable’s Haynesfield will attempt to become the first New York-bred to capture a Breeders’ Cup race. He has nine wins on his resume from 13 starts, with four of those coming against restricted company, but in his final start of 2009 the connections realized they might have something special. 
“His win in the Discovery last year showed us what he could be,” Asmussen said. “His Suburban victory this year, and in his Jockey Club (Gold Cup) after that, he showed us that he’s a top class horse.” 
Haynesfield has traditionally done his best running on the lead, or from just off the pace. A dry track that’s tough to close over would work to his advantage.   
“Speed holds if you’re fast,” Asmussen joked. “It’s a very fair racetrack. The track was very slow opening day (Sunday), but with racing the next few days, it should tighten up a bit.”

Musket Man – The 4yo colt stretched his legs with a 1m jog over the Churchill Downs main track Wednesday morning, going out for the first time since arriving late Tuesday. 
Trainer Derek Ryan, who arrived in Louisville at midnight, was on hand to supervise the colt’s training. Musket Man is stabled in Barn 41, in the same stall he occupied when he ran third in the 2009 Kentucky Derby and third in the Churchill Downs Stakes on Derby Day this year. Musket Man found traffic trouble in both races or he might have fared better. 
“He seems to get into trouble here,” Ryan said, “but he finds trouble everywhere. We need a clean trip in this race.”
This year, the son of Yonaguska, owned by Eric Fein and Vic Carlson, has won just once in six starts, with three seconds and two thirds. He was second to Quality Road in the Metropolitan Handicap and third behind Blame and Quality Road in the Whitney Handicap. 
Last out, Musket Man was the 1-2 favorite in the Monmouth Cup, but was beaten a neck by Etched, another Classic rival. 
“He should have won that race,” Ryan said. “I said he would only go to the Breeders’ Cup if he won, but I know he was much the best that day and unlucky to lose by a neck. I know he’ll run well here.” 
Musket Man gets another change of riders for the Classic, with Rajiv Maragh taking over again. Maragh rode the colt in the Whitney, when he was closer to the pace than usual. 
“Rajiv knows the horse,” Ryan said, explaining the switch from last out.  “He chased the speed in the Whitney because he didn’t want Quality Road to steal the race on the lead.”

Pleasant Prince – The 3yo son of Indy King galloped 1 1/2m on the main track after the mid-morning break and trainer Wesley Ward continues to be encouraged about the colt owned by Kenneth and Sarah Ramsey.           
“He’s been training awesome for quite a while, and that’s why Mr. Ramsey paid the $100,000 to nominate him for the Classic,” Ward said Wednesday morning. “He’s just doing awesome and I think he’s going to run big enough to warrant that extra fee.”           
Pleasant Prince drew post 9 at Tuesday’s post-position draw, but Ward said he’s not concerned about that. “He’ll get good position up fairly close,” the trainer said.

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Tuesday's Breeders' Cup Headlines/Notes

 Today's Breeders' Cup headlines and notes, courtesy of the Breeders' Cup...


  • Arrivals Tuesday: A Tex Sutton charter from California arrived before noon in Louisville Tuesday with 11 horses that are scheduled to compete in the Breeders’ Cup. Included on the flight was the unbeaten defending Breeders’ Cup Classic champion Zenyatta for trainer John Shirreffs, along with Classic contender and leading 3-year-old Lookin At Lucky, trained by Bob Baffert.  
Also aboard the chartered flight were A Z Warrior (JF) and Gabby’s Golden Gal (FMS) for Baffert; Champ Pegasus (T) and Crown of Thorns (DM) for Richard Mandella; Awesome Gem (Mar) and Tropic Storm (TS/DM) for Craig Dollase; Unzip Me (TS) for Martin Jones; Jaycito (J) for Mike Mitchell; and J P’s Gusto (J) for David Hofmans.
Classic entrant Musket Man boarded a van in New Jersey at 3:30 a.m. Tuesday for the approximately 12-hour ride from Monmouth Park to Churchill Downs and was expected to arrive late in the afternoon.

Trainer Derek Ryan had horses entered at Parx Racing Tuesday and said he would drive to Louisville after the races at the Philadelphia track.

Musket Man, owned by Eric Fein and Vic Carlson, will be stabled in Barn 41 on the Churchill backside, taking the same stall he occupied when he ran third in the 2009 Kentucky Derby and third in the Churchill Downs Stakes this year on Derby Day.

Etched is taking the scenic route to Churchill Downs and the Classic, being shipped by van from his Greentree Training Center in Saratoga Springs, N.Y. Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin decided it was the best mode of transportation for the “difficult” Classic contender.

“It would have been a four-hour ride to Long Island, another hour at the airport and then the flight,” McLaughlin said. “He can be a bit difficult and he’s a very large horse, so it’s just better for him to head down there on a van.

McLaughlin estimated that Etched will arrive at Churchill Downs at 5 or 6 a.m. Wednesday after being loaded onto the van at 1 p.m. Tuesday.

Etched’s stablemate Soldat, a Juvenile Turf contender stabled at Belmont Park, was scheduled for a quicker form of transportation to Louisville Tuesday aboard a Tex Sutton chartered flight from JFK International due at approximately 5:30 p.m.
The American-based horses from Godolphin arrived safe and sound from New York and had settled down in their stalls in Barn 36 at Churchill Downs on Tuesday morning after an uneventful van ride from Belmont Park.
Assistant trainer Henry Spiller said Breeders’ Cup Sprint contender Girolamo, Dirt Mile contenders Gayego and Vineyard Haven, and Filly & Mare Sprint starter Sara Louise all shipped well and will go to the track Wednesday morning at 6 a.m. to gallop 1 1/4m in preparation for their respective starts. Godolphin’s main assistant, Rick Mettee, is scheduled to arrive in Louisville Tuesday evening, while head trainer Saeed bin Suroor will arrive Thursday.
Winchester, winner of the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at Belmont last time out, will accompany stablemate and Mile starter Gio Ponti on the last Tex Sutton chartered flight from New York to Louisville Tuesday. The pair of turf specialists will be bedded down in Barn 40. Trainer Christophe Clement will arrive on Friday.

On Tuesday, Gio Ponti’s connections announced that the 5yo son of Tale of the Cat will bypass the Classic, which was listed as first preference in the pre-entries.

“He came out of the Shadwell Mile in great order. I’m very excited to run him in the Breeders’ Cup Mile,” Clement said Tuesday.
Also new on the grounds was Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf contender Fancy Point, who vanned in late Monday from trainer Will Phipps’ base in Ocala, Fla. The 2yo daughter of Point Given will jog 1m, gallop 1m, and school in the paddock Wednesday morning

The European horses were released from quarantine Tuesday morning with Goldikova (IRE) leading the way to the track for a first look at Churchill Downs.
   
The 5yo mare, trained by Freddy Head, is seeking an unprecedented third straight victory in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. She jogged over the main track Tuesday morning, just stretching her legs.

Other Europeans getting their first exercise on the dirt track Tuesday included Debussy (IRE), Dangerous Midge and Behkabad (FR), all entered in the Turf, and Filly & Mare Turf runners Midday (GB) and Plumania (GB).

  • Epsom Derby and Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner Workforce (GB) is to be entered in the Emirates Airline Breeders’ Cup Turf, but a decision on whether he will actually run will be made later in the week, with the hope of rain softening the turf course.

Head lad Stuart Messenger sent both Workforce and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf contender Dux Scholar to the track  for the first time on Tuesday morning, and after they jogged for a bit, gave them each an gallop on the turf.

With the lack of rain in Kentucky, firmness of the course has been a concern and heading back to the barn, a grim-faced Messenger said “It’s very firm. We’re going to have a very serious discussion on whether we will run.”

Messenger phoned trainer Michael Stoute, who was about to fly to the United States from his Newmarket base in England, and they decided to enter the horse and then monitor the course condition the rest of the week.

Workforce, by King’s Best, could return to run as a 4yo, which is a factor in the decision. It’s possible that Dux Scholar would also scratch if Workforce does.

  • Trainer Akio Adachi said Espoir City (JPN) will work Wednesday morning at approximately 8:45 a.m. following the renovation break.

Jockey Tetsuzo Sato will be aboard for the breeze, which will likely be five or six furlongs, beginning at the finish line. Adachi said it was a typical training schedule for the horse, which has won 10 of 13 starts, including the Japan Cup Dirt and the February Stakes since being switched from turf to dirt in August 2008.

Espoir City worked 4f Sunday and will stay on his usual schedule with a second breeze the week of the race.
  
“It’s basically the style. Of course it depends on the individual horse,” Adachi said through interpreter said Mikki Tsuge, West Coast Representative for the Japan Racing Association who has been serving as the connections’ liaison at Churchill Downs. “With him, it’s pretty much sticking to his routine.”

Adachi said the horse will walk Thursday and jog Friday.

  • Tuesday Workouts:

Pashito the Che - In his final major preparation for Saturday's Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Sprint, Tuna Stable LLC and Off the Hook LLC's Pashito the Che worked 4f over a fast main track in 51 3/5.

With exercise rider Jennifer Stisted aboard, the 4yo son of Flatter ran splits of 14, 26 3/5, 38 3/5 and he galloped out in 1:07 2/5.

"The work was a little slower than I wanted, but I told my wife (Stisted) I'd rather have him go slow than fast," trainer Scott Lake said. “He passed another horse in the stretch and finished out good. He came back great. It's all systems go."

·         Tuesday Declarations:

Major Gain – Gary and Mary West’s son of More Than Ready came up with a temperature Tuesday morning and will not be entered in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf.

“He will be fine in a few days but will not be well enough to run on Saturday,” trainer Wayne Catalano said. “It is disappointing, but these things happen sometimes.” 

Saturday, August 28, 2010

One Hit Wonder?

When the Kentucky Derby rolls around on the first Saturday in May, there are high hopes that a star will emerge and become one of the sport's best athletes in a business that so desperately needs them. This year, Super Saver, trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Calvin Borel, took center stage as he rolled to a 2 1/2-length victory over the fast closing Ice Box.

But, in a matter of 14 days, those hopes faded very quickly. In fact, since May 1, Super Saver has become one of racing's biggest disappointments. In the Preakness, he followed the Derby win with an eighth place finish after being in second place during the early part of the race. Pletcher decided to skip the Belmont and wait for the two big summer races for the three-year-olds, the Haskell and Travers.

In the Haskell, Super Saver looked like he might be coming around as he ran fourth to Preakness winner Lookin at Lucky. But on Saturday, Super Saver regressed again and beat only one horse in the Travers as he finished 10th in the 11-horse field.

After the race, Todd Pletcher had little explanation.

"We were tracking in a good, fast spot but just came up empty."

In fact, Super Saver never was closer than eighth at any time during the race which saw a stirring stretch run as Afleet Express nosed out Fly Down.

To add insult to injury, Ice Box, the Derby runner-up has finished ninth, sixth and eighth since the "Run for the Roses." In fact, he finished nearly 14 lengths ahead of Super Saver in Saturday's Travers despite running eighth.

What's next for Super Saver? Your guess is as good as mine. He has one more shot at redemption in November when the Breeders' Cup returns to Churchill Downs, assuming Pletcher decides to tackle the best horses in the world.

If Super Saver could find a way to knock off stars such as Blame, Quality Road (who is also trained by Pletcher) and the undefeated filly Zenyatta in the Breeders' Cup Classic, a lot of his luster would be restored but otherwise, the Derby winner will join a long list of "one hit wonders."

Saturday, June 12, 2010

Strong Top Tier

Now that the Triple Crown is behind us, we start to turn our attention to the best horses in the country.

That's not a sleight against the top sophomores like Lookin at Lucky, Super Saver and Drosselmeyer. But the Triple Crown race winners are still growing and developing while the older horses are in their prime.

On Saturday, we saw some of those stars in action in Kentucky and California.

Blame stamped himself as one of the elite when he wore down the regally bred Battle Plan in the Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs. The win was Blame's fourth in a row and now has seven wins in 10 starts.

Battle Plan meanwhile suffered his first loss in his last five tries but should still be a force in the second half of the season.

Earlier in the day at Churchill Downs, defending Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra (right) reminded everyone she's still a super filly as she obliterated the Fleur de Lis by 10 1/2 lengths.

Her 108 Beyer Speed Figure from Saturday is identical to her record victory in last year's Kentucky Oaks and Preakness. Her record now stands at 12 wins from 17 starts. Not too shabby.

At Hollywood Park, Rail Trip pronoucned himself as the top male on the West Coast as he easily captured the California Handicap. He's now 2-for-2 this year and has won eight of 11 career starts. His only question mark for later in the year is will he duplicate his fantastic form on traditional dirt as all his victories have come in California.

On Sunday, Zenyatta, the undefeated superwoman, will likely stay perfect when she runs in the Vanity at Hollywood Park. (Post time - 7:37 EDT)

The only other horse to watch might be the best of them all. Quality Road, who captured the Met Mile on Memorial Day, has been super since he turned four. He is unbeaten in three starts this year and his win in the Donn Handicap produced the highest Beyer Speed Figure of the year - 121. In fact, Quality Road has two of the four best Beyers of 2010.

And, by the way, Todd Pletcher trains Quality Road, Battle Plan and Super Saver. Talk about a loaded barn.

The summer racing season should be fantastic and culminating with the Breeders' Cup at Churchill Downs in November.

Photo courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire - www.eclispsesportswire.com

Sunday, May 16, 2010

Preakness Numbers & Thoughts

Here's just a few interesting stats and tidbits from Saturday's middle leg of the Triple Crown.

The Daily Racing Form's Beyer Speed Figures from the Preakness:

Lookin at Lucky 102
First Dude 101
Jackson Bend 101
Yawanna Twist 99
Dublin 93
Paddy O'Prado 85
Caracortado 85
Super Saver 84
Schoolyard Dreams 83
Aikenite 79
Pleasant Prince 73
Northern Giant 68

The horses listed in BOLD FACE are possible for the Belmont Stakes. Of that group, only First Dude is the most likely. The Belmont will have Kentucky Derby runner-up Ice Box and he should be one of the favorites for the 1 1/2 miles marathon.

This will be the second time in five years that neither the Derby or Preakness winner will venture to New York for the final leg of the Triple Crown. In 2006, the ill-fated Derby winner Barbaro, who suffered an near fatal injury in the Preakness before succumbing to his wounds months later, and Preakness winner Bernardini skipped the Belmont.

Trainer Bob Baffert's Preakness win now gives him nine Triple Crown victories which is tied for fifth best all-time. D. Wayne Lukas, who could send Dublin to the Belmont, is tied for the lead with 13.

Baffert tied Lukas for most wins in the Preakness with five. The all-time leader is R. Wyndham Walden with seven victories.


The list of Belmont contenders outside of the Preakness runners: Drosselmeyer, the talented colt who will have a new jockey; Fly Down, the Nick Zito trained winner of the Dwyer; Game on Dude, winner of the Lone Star Derby for Baffert; Make Music For Me, 4th in the Kentucky Derby; New MadridSetsuko, who was excluded from the Derby for insufficient Graded Stakes Earnings; Stately VictorStay Put; and Uptowncharlybrown, who is now in the barn of trainer Kiaran McLaughlin; 

On the under card, Blame took a big step in becoming one of the top horses in country when he made a successful debut in 2010 in the William Schaefer. His effort yielded him an 101 Beyer Speed Figure. His next race is expect to be the Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs next month.

Saturday, May 15, 2010

Finally.....

BALTIMORE - No sport may be more dependent on luck than racing and Lookin at Lucky didn't have much go right for him in the last six weeks. On Saturday, the aptly named horse finally had everything go his way and captured the 135th Preakness Stakes.

Early in the week, trainer Bob Baffert, who now has five Preakness victories, elected to change riders on the Lookin at Lucky for the first time. Garrett Gomez was given the boot and 25-year-old Martin Garcia, a former cook at a Northern California deli, got the assignment.

Garcia looked like a calm, cool veteran as he kept the colt out of trouble the entire race and guided him to the front as they turned for home. Then Garcia kept after "Lucky" nearly the entire stretch run and held off a stubborn pacesetter First Dude.

"He knows I have confidence in him," Baffert said. "I think the jockey knows that a trainer has confidence in him, you click...I think we've been clicking. I sent him all over the States. I just hope he shows up Monday to work my horses."

The irony of the Preakness is that Gomez, who got a new riding assignment aboard Dublin, got into trouble right from the start and dropped back to last. Dublin made a nice run and finished fifth.

As for Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver, it just appeared he was tired. Jockey Calvin Borel kept Super Saver close to the front and the early taxing fractions took their toll as he started to fade before the final run down the home stretch.

"When they went to the far turn, you can see that Calvin was squeezing and asking him to get that horse (First Dude) and just couldn't do it," trainer Todd Pletcher said. "He hung in there. He kept fighting. He tried hard. It was back a little quick for him. Now we've got time to come back for a big summer."

Also, big credit to First Dude as he ran a gutty effort to hold on for second. He set a quick early pace and held off late challenges from Jackson Bend and Yawanna Twist.

The sad part for racing is that the Belmont Stakes will probably not get either Super Saver or Lookin at Lucky as both trainers seemed really uncertain about moving on to the toughest leg of the Triple Crown.

Looks like the most prominent horse at the Belmont will be Derby runner-up Ice Box. First Dude might also move on but that's still up in the air.

But it was great to see the best horse win as Lookin at Lucky proved that he still is one of the best 3-year-olds in the country.

Preakness Odds Update - 5:50 pm

Last update before the race:

1) Aikenite - 30-1 (down from 35-1)

2) Schoolyard Dreams - 14-1 (was as low as 12-1)

3) Pleasant Prince - 22-1 (bouncing between 22-1 and 23-1)

4) Northern Giant - 25-1

5) Yawanna Twist - 15-1

6) Jackson Bend - 11-1

7) Lookin at Lucky - 5-2 (up from 2-1)

8) Super Saver - 9-5 (down from 2-1)

9) Caracortado - 18-1 (down from 19-1)

10) Paddy O'Prado - 7-1 (down from 8-1)

11) First Dude - 25-1

12) Dublin - 9-1

Preakness Odds Update - 5:25 pm

1) Aikenite - 35-1 (been steady at that #)

2) Schoolyard Dreams - 13-1 (was as low as 12-1)

3) Pleasant Prince - 23-1 (was down to 22-1)

4) Northern Giant - 25-1

5) Yawanna Twist - 15-1

6) Jackson Bend - 11-1 (up from 12-1)

7) Lookin at Lucky - 5-2 (up from 2-1)

8) Super Saver - 9-5 (down from 2-1)

9) Caracortado - 18-1 (down from 19-1)

10) Paddy O'Prado - 8-1 (up from 7-1)

11) First Dude - 25-1

12) Dublin - 9-1 (first time in single digits today - could be 3rd choice)

Preakness Odds Update - 4:55 pm

1) Aikenite - 35-1

2) Schoolyard Dreams - 14-1 (bounced between 16 and 14 in the last couple of minutes)

3) Pleasant Prince - 25-1

4) Northern Giant - 25-1

5) Yawanna Twist - 15-1

6) Jackson Bend - 12-1 (up from 11-1)

7) Lookin at Lucky - 2-1

8) Super Saver - 2-1 (up from 9-5)

9) Caracortado - 19-1

10) Paddy O'Prado - 7-1

11) First Dude - 25-1

12) Dublin - 10-1 (still bouncing between 10-11)

Preakness Odds Update - 4:20 pm

1) Aikenite - 35-1

2) Schoolyard Dreams - 15-1

3) Pleasant Prince - 25-1

4) Northern Giant - 25-1

5) Yawanna Twist - 15-1

6) Jackson Bend - 11-1

7) Lookin at Lucky - 2-1

8) Super Saver - 9-5

9) Caracortado - 19-1 (down from 20-1)

10) Paddy O'Prado - 7-1

11) First Dude - 25-1

12) Dublin - 10-1 (down from 11-1 - still bouncing between 10-11)

Preakness Odds Update - 3:50 pm

1) Aikenite - 35-1

2) Schoolyard Dreams - 15-1

3) Pleasant Prince - 25-1

4) Northern Giant - 25-1

5) Yawanna Twist - 15-1

6) Jackson Bend - 11-1

7) Lookin at Lucky - 2-1

8) Super Saver - 9-5

9) Caracortado - 19-1 (down from 20-1)

10) Paddy O'Prado - 7-1

11) First Dude - 25-1

12) Dublin - 11-1 (up from 10-1 - been bouncing between 10-11)

Horse By Horse Look at the Preakness

Here's a quick look at the Preakness Dozen.

1) Aikenite (Career Record 8-1-2-2) - Trainer Todd Pletcher's "other" entrant's only win came last August at Saratoga. He usually puts in a good effort but appears a little overmatched here.

2) Schoolyard Dreams (Career Record - 6-2-2-1) - Do you remember Musket Man from last year? This horse has the same owner and trainer and should be close to the front. He hasn't run since finishing fourth to Eskendereya in the Wood Memorial but you should expect him to be in the thick of it down the stretch.

3) Pleasant Prince (Career Record - 9-1-2-2) - Expect him to be last early on and then make one big run as they turn for home. His best effort was a second place finish to Kentucky Derby runner-up Ice Box. If he's too far back, he may not be able to catch up.

4) Northern Giant (Career Record - 9-1-2-2) - He was on target for a run in the Derby before his last place finish in the Arkansas Derby last month. That effort is a big concern and may just be a little worn down after five races this year.

5) Yawanna Twist (Career Record - 4-2-2-0) - He has gotten better with each start but failed as the favorite in last month's Illinois Derby. His breeding suggests he won't want to go the Preakness distance but his trainer won this race a couple of years ago with Big Brown. His current odds are a little too short though.

6) Jackson Bend (Career Record - 10-5-4-0) - You can just throw out his performance in the Kentucky Derby (finished 12th). Now that he's back on a dry track, he should run much better. Not sure he will relish the Preakness distance but should be in the mix coming down the home stretch.

7) Lookin at Lucky (Career Record - 9-6-1-1) - He has been anything but lucky. The fact that he finished 6th in the Kentucky Derby despite getting bounced around like a pinball early in the race is remarkable. He has a new jockey, 25-year-old Martin Garcia, and that is bit of a concern but there is no questioning the horse's talent. He may be due for smooth sailing.

8) Super Saver (Career Record - 7-3-2-1) - The Kentucky Derby winner is out to prove to the world that his win two weeks ago wasn't a fluke. He will need to show the world that he can win away from Churchill Downs and also on a dry track. If "rockstar" jockey Calvin Borel can keep him clear of trouble again, he'll have a great shot to keep Triple Crown hopes alive and back up Borel's Triple Crown Guarantee.

9) Caracortado (Career Record -7-5-0-1) - He was destined to run in the Kentucky Derby until his 4th place finish last month in California. The key for him is to prove he can run on a normal dirt track. His biggest victories have come on the "artificial" dirt in California. If you like him, you will get great odds.

10) Paddy O'Prado (Career Record - 7-1-2-3) - His 3rd place finish in the Kentucky Derby was the best race of his life but now he has to prove, like Super Saver, that he can run well on a dry track away from Churchill Downs. The big question is whether he will be near the front early or drop back like he did in the Derby.

11) First Dude (Career Record - 6-1-3-1) - Trainer Dale Romans "other" horse comes off a third place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes last month. He's a horse with a lot of talent and Romans was really hoping he would have enough earnings to get into the Kentucky Derby. Another horse that will be a really good price. He's a live longshot.

12) Dublin (Career Record - 9-2-1-2) - The D. Wayne Lukas trained colt gets a new rider in Garrett Gomez. Depending on who you talk to, that's either a good or a bad thing. Gomez's experience and winning big races should help as Dublin also got into trouble in the Kentucky Derby. Although he hasn't won a race this year, this horse has been one of the most consistent. Definitely a horse to watch carefully.

Preakness Odds Update - 3:20 pm

1) Aikenite - 35-1

2) Schoolyard Dreams - 15-1

3) Pleasant Prince - 25-1

4) Northern Giant - 25-1 (down from 30-1)

5) Yawanna Twist - 15-1

6) Jackson Bend - 11-1

7) Lookin at Lucky - 2-1

8) Super Saver - 9-5

9) Caracortado - 20-1

10) Paddy O'Prado - 7-1 (down from 8-1)

11) First Dude - 25-1

12) Dublin - 10-1 (down from 11-1)

Preakness Odds Update - 2:50 pm

1) Aikenite - 35-1

2) Schoolyard Dreams - 15-1 (down from 16-1)

3) Pleasant Prince - 25-1

4) Northern Giant - 30-1 (up from 25-1)

5) Yawanna Twist - 15-1

6) Jackson Bend - 11-1

7) Lookin at Lucky - 2-1

8) Super Saver - 9-5

9) Caracortado - 20-1

10) Paddy O'Prado - 8-1

11) First Dude - 25-1

12) Dublin - 11-1 (up from 10-1)

Preakness Odds Update - 2:20 pm

1) Aikenite - 35-1

2) Schoolyard Dreams - 16-1

3) Pleasant Prince - 25-1

4) Northern Giant - 25-1

5) Yawanna Twist - 15-1

6) Jackson Bend - 11-1

7) Lookin at Lucky - 2-1

8) Super Saver - 9-5

9) Caracortado - 20-1

10) Paddy O'Prado - 8-1

11) First Dude - 25-1

12) Dublin - 10-1

Friday, April 30, 2010

Early Kentucky Derby Odds

Some great values in this Kentucky Derby:

1) Lookin at Lucky 9-1

2) Ice Box 11-1

3) Noble’s Promise 21-1

4) Super Saver 7-1

5) Line of David 15-1

6) Stately Victor 16-1

7) American Lion 25-1

8) Dean’s Kitten 18-1

9) Make Music For Me 25-1

10) Paddy O’Prado 11-1

11) Devil May Care11-1

12) Conveyance 25-1

13) Jackson Bend 22-1

14) Mission Impazible 24-1

15) Discreetly Mine 41-1

16) Awesome Act 13-1

17) Dublin 21-1

18) Backtalk 20-1

19) Homeboykris 17-1

20) Sidney’s Candy 11-1

Monday, April 12, 2010

Derby Over Analysis, One Step at a Time

With just one Kentucky Derby prep race left, the over analysis of the potential field can really begin and I'll start off with a relatively easy analysis.

Sometimes the simplest way to analyze at a race is to look at the information that is right in front of you. The Daily Racing Form publishes a set of speed figures, Beyers (named for their inventor Andy Beyer), and they give you a quick and easy look at how fast a horse ran in a particular race.

(If you want a little more info on the Beyer Speed Figures click http://drf.com/flash/drf_pp_tutorial.html)

For those who believe in the Beyer Speed Figures, there are only three horses who have broken through the 100 barrier.

Eskendereya, the likely 2-1 favorite, is the number king as he racked up a 109 in last week's Wood Memorial and 106 in the Fountain of Youth back in February.

Next on the list is Santa Anita Derby winner Sidney's Candy. The horse, who is named for weight loss giant Jenny Craig's late husband Sidney, scored a 100 last week.

The only other horse inside the Top 20 who has a landed a triple digit figure might surprise you. (It surprised me.) Endorsement, who won the Sunland Park Derby on March 28, earned a 101. And before you dismiss the Sunland Park Derby, it produced a little horse named Mine That Bird.

The only major horse who hasn't cracked 100 is 2-year-old champion Lookin at Lucky. One would imagine he might have if didn't get sideswiped in the Santa Anita Derby but he is widely considered to be one of the horses to beat in less than three weeks.

What do these numbers mean? Quite possibly nothing but at the very least you see, at a glance, who merits your attention.

There will be plenty of other ways to analyze the field of 20 but we'll take it slow and pass on additional insight as we countdown to the Derby.

Saturday, April 10, 2010

Winners and Losers

The continuing and ever changing Kentucky Derby picture got even a little more crazy on Saturday afternoon after big upsets in the Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby.

The only constant on Saturday was who is still the horse to beat in just under three weeks. According to Churchill Downs morning line oddsmaker, Eskendereya will likely be a 2-1 favorite for the Derby and Sidney's Candy and Lookin at Lucky will be the second and third choices.

After a topsy turvy Saturday. here's a look at Saturday's winners and losers:

WINNERS

Stately Victor - A horse that wasn't considered a serious Derby contender at any point this year vaulted himself from a no name to #9 on the Derby Graded Stakes earnings list after capturing the Blue Grass Stakes with a record win payoff of $82.20. The son of Ghostzapper now gives Churchill Downs based trainer Mike Maker two Derby starters (the other - Dean's Kitten).

Paddy O'Prado - Seemingly trainer Dale Romans' last hope for a Derby starter, the gray colt delivered with a solid runner-up finish in the Blue Grass. Paddy O'Prado moved into 19th on the Earnings List and will give two-time Derby winning rider Kent Desormeaux a shot at a Roses "hat trick."

Interactif - His fourth place finish in the Blue Grass may seem insignificant but the $37,500 in earnings he pocketed put him in 17th place and all but locked up a spot in the Derby starting gate. Trainer Todd Pletcher said that neither of horses in the Blue Grass cared for the artificial Polytrack but nonetheless, he still managed a good effort to pick up needed money.

Line of David - Trai
ner John Sadler, who already had a major contender with Sidney's Candy, added one more after Line of David led nearly every step of the way in an upset victory in the Arkansas Derby. The son of 2004 Derby runner of Lion Heart won his third straight and is tied with Eskendereya for fifth on the Earnings list.

Jon Court
- The jockey, who spent many years at Churchill Downs, now has a cha
nce to return home with one of the hottest horses in the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Super Saver - Even though he narrowly lost the Arkansas Derby, his effort was significant for the following:

Calvin Borel - One of the most beloved and well known jockeys in the past few years secured another ride in the Derby after he guided Super Saver to his 2nd place effort. Borel will be seeking his third victory in four years, which would be a remarkable achievement.

WinStar Farm - This well known Kentucky farm locked up their fourth Derby contender with Super Saver's finish. They could add a fifth if Drosselmeyer runs and wins next week's Coolmore Lexington Stakes. Drosselmeyer is currently 36th on the Earnings list and the Lexington victory is essential is he wants run on the first Saturday in May.

Todd Pletcher - The future Hall of Fame trainer, who is 0-for-24 in the Derby, now has six horses slated to "Run for the Roses" led by Eskendereya.

LOSERS

Jackson Bend - Even though he has been runner-up to Derby favorite Eskendereya two consecutive times, the Nick Zito trained colt slipped from #17 to #22 on the Earnings list after Saturday's Derby Prep upsets. The only shot he has to make it into the Derby field is with two defections. Zito's lone Derby hope is now with Florida Derby winner Ice Box.

Pleasant Prince - After finishing second in the Florida Derby, it seemed that he was all but a lock to make the Derby. But after it became apparent that he wasn't going to have enough money to get it, his connections elected to run him in the Blue Grass. That moves backfired as he finished seventh and now sits 29th on the Earnings List.

Odysseus - In the middle of March, he was the talk of racing after pulling off an improbable victory in the Tampa Bay Derby. Since that was his only Graded Stakes race, he was going to need no worse than a third place finish in the Blue Grass to move on to the Kentucky Derby. Things looked promising early as he was on the lead but he tired quickly on the final and finished last. He's now 26th on the list.

Aikenite/Todd Pletcher - The only bad news from Saturday for Pletcher was with Aikenite's subpar performance knocked him down 24th on the Earnings List. The Preakness might be next for him.

Make Music For Me - Trainer Alexis Barba has a small stable of horses and she was really hoping to have her first Derby starter but after his sixth place finish in the Blue Grass, he went from 20th to 25th on the Earnings List.

Backtalk - Even though he didn't run this weekend, he slipped out of the Top 20. He dropped form 18th to 23rd and all trainer Tom Amoss can do is wait and hope for defections.

Photos courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire

Updated Derby Bucks

In the ever changing Graded Stakes money picture for the Kentucky Derby, here's the list computer by yours truly with just one prep race left.

# Horse Trainer $$$$$$$
1 Lookin at Lucky Bob Baffert $1,480,000
2 Noble's Promise Ken McPeek $738,000
3 Rule Todd Pletcher $645,000
4 Sidney's Candy John Sadler $630,000
t-5 Eskendereya Todd Pletcher $600,000
t-5 Line of David John Sadler $600,000
7 Mission Impazible Todd Pletcher $485,934
8 Ice Box Nick Zito $457,500
9 Stately Victor Mike Maker $451,112
10 Endorsement Shannon Ritter $400,000
11 Conveyance Bob Baffert $386,000
12 American Lion Eoin Harty $378,000
13 Dublin D. Wayne Lukas $373,208
14 Super Saver Todd Pletcher $363,832
15 Discreetly Mine Todd Pletcher $355,000
16 Dean's Kitten Mike Maker $326,475
17 Interactif Todd Pletcher $307,950
18 Awesome Act Jeremy Noseda $285,000
19 Paddy O'Prado Dale Romans $250,950
20 Homeboykris Richard Dutrow $250,500
21 Uh Oh Bango Kory Owens $237,952
22 Jackson Bend Nick Zito $230,000
23 Backtalk Tom Amoss $225,916
24 Aikenite Todd Pletcher $221,750
25 Make Music For Me Alexis Barba $218,750
26 Odysseus Tom Albertrani $183,750
27 A Little Warm Tony Dutrow $180,000
27 Setsuko Richard Mandella $180,000
29 Pleasant Prince Wesley Ward $166,250
30 Tempted to Tapit Steve Klesaris $156,000
31 Caracortado Mike Machowsky $153,000
32 Connemara Todd Pletcher $138,500
33 Schoolyard Dreams Derek Ryan $137,500
34 Northern Giant D. Wayne Lukas $132,000
35 First Dude Dale Romans $97,500
36 Drosselmeyer Bill Mott $94,500

Sunday, April 4, 2010

The Money List - 4/4/10

Here is the Kentucky Derby Graded Stakes Earnings list as I have compiled it. (Churchill Downs will release its Official List during the week.) I have not included another of the fillies and Breeders' Cup Juvenile champ Vale of York since they appear unlikely to run but this should give you a good idea where everyone stands with less than a month to go.


Horse Trainer Graded Earnings Record

1 Lookin At Lucky Bob Baffert $1,480,000 8-6-1-1
2 Noble's Promise Ken McPeek $708,000 7-3-3-1
3 Rule Todd Pletcher $645,000 7-4-1-2
4 Sidney's Candy John Sadler $630,000 6-4-1-0
5 Eskendereya Todd Pletcher $600,000 6-4-1-0
6 Ice Box Nick Zito $457,500 7-3-0-0
7 Mission Impazible Todd Pletcher $473,434 5-2-1-1
8 Endorsement Shannon Ritter $400,000 4-2-1-0
9 Conveyance Bob Baffert $386,000 5-4-1-0
10 American Lion Eoin Harty $378,000 6-3-1-1
11 Discreetly Mine Todd Pletcher $355,000 8-2-3-1
12 Dean's Kitten Michael Maker $326,475 11-3-1-2
13 Awesome Act Jeremy Noseda $285,000 8-2-2-2
14 Dublin D. Wayne Lukas $273,208 7-2-1-1
15 Interactif Todd Pletcher W $270,450 7-3-2-1
16 Homeboykris Rick Dutrow $250,500 6-2-1-0
17 Jackson Bend Nick Zito R $230,000 9-5-4-0
18 Backtalk Tom Amoss $225,916 7-4-0-1
19 Aikenite Todd Pletcher $218,000 6-1-1-2
20 Make Music for MeAlexis Barba $215,000 7-1-2-1
21 Mendip Saeed bin Suroor $200,000 4-3-1-0
22 Radiohead (GB) Rick Dutrow $196,332 9-3-2-1
23 Uh Oh Bango Kory Owens $187,952 6-2-3-0
t24 A Little Warm Tony Dutrow $180,000 7-2-4-0
t24 Odysseus Tom Albertrani $180,000 4-3-1-0
t24 Setsuko Richard Mandella $180,000 8-1-4-2
27 Super Saver Todd Pletcher $163,832 5-2-1-1
28 Pleasant Prince Wesley Ward $162,500 7-1-2-1
29 Tempted to Tapit Steve Klesaris $156,000 6-1-3-1
30 Caracortado Mike Machowsky $153,000 7-5-0-1
31 Connemara Todd Pletcher $138,500 5-3-1-1
32 Schoolyard Dreams Derek Ryan $137,500 6-2-2-1
33 Northern Giant D. Wayne Lukas $127,000 8-1-2-2
34 Paddy O'Prado Dale Romans $100,950 5-1-1-2
35 Drosselmeyer Bill Mott $94,500 7-2-2-2