Derby Over Analysis, One Step at a Time

With just one Kentucky Derby prep race left, the over analysis of the potential field can really begin and I'll start off with a relatively easy analysis.

Sometimes the simplest way to analyze at a race is to look at the information that is right in front of you. The Daily Racing Form publishes a set of speed figures, Beyers (named for their inventor Andy Beyer), and they give you a quick and easy look at how fast a horse ran in a particular race.

(If you want a little more info on the Beyer Speed Figures click http://drf.com/flash/drf_pp_tutorial.html)

For those who believe in the Beyer Speed Figures, there are only three horses who have broken through the 100 barrier.

Eskendereya, the likely 2-1 favorite, is the number king as he racked up a 109 in last week's Wood Memorial and 106 in the Fountain of Youth back in February.

Next on the list is Santa Anita Derby winner Sidney's Candy. The horse, who is named for weight loss giant Jenny Craig's late husband Sidney, scored a 100 last week.

The only other horse inside the Top 20 who has a landed a triple digit figure might surprise you. (It surprised me.) Endorsement, who won the Sunland Park Derby on March 28, earned a 101. And before you dismiss the Sunland Park Derby, it produced a little horse named Mine That Bird.

The only major horse who hasn't cracked 100 is 2-year-old champion Lookin at Lucky. One would imagine he might have if didn't get sideswiped in the Santa Anita Derby but he is widely considered to be one of the horses to beat in less than three weeks.

What do these numbers mean? Quite possibly nothing but at the very least you see, at a glance, who merits your attention.

There will be plenty of other ways to analyze the field of 20 but we'll take it slow and pass on additional insight as we countdown to the Derby.

Winners and Losers

The continuing and ever changing Kentucky Derby picture got even a little more crazy on Saturday afternoon after big upsets in the Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby.

The only constant on Saturday was who is still the horse to beat in just under three weeks. According to Churchill Downs morning line oddsmaker, Eskendereya will likely be a 2-1 favorite for the Derby and Sidney's Candy and Lookin at Lucky will be the second and third choices.

After a topsy turvy Saturday. here's a look at Saturday's winners and losers:

WINNERS

Stately Victor - A horse that wasn't considered a serious Derby contender at any point this year vaulted himself from a no name to #9 on the Derby Graded Stakes earnings list after capturing the Blue Grass Stakes with a record win payoff of $82.20. The son of Ghostzapper now gives Churchill Downs based trainer Mike Maker two Derby starters (the other - Dean's Kitten).

Paddy O'Prado - Seemingly trainer Dale Romans' last hope for a Derby starter, the gray colt delivered with a solid runner-up finish in the Blue Grass. Paddy O'Prado moved into 19th on the Earnings List and will give two-time Derby winning rider Kent Desormeaux a shot at a Roses "hat trick."

Interactif - His fourth place finish in the Blue Grass may seem insignificant but the $37,500 in earnings he pocketed put him in 17th place and all but locked up a spot in the Derby starting gate. Trainer Todd Pletcher said that neither of horses in the Blue Grass cared for the artificial Polytrack but nonetheless, he still managed a good effort to pick up needed money.

Line of David - Trai

ner John Sadler, who already had a major contender with Sidney's Candy, added one more after Line of David led nearly every step of the way in an upset victory in the Arkansas Derby. The son of 2004 Derby runner of Lion Heart won his third straight and is tied with Eskendereya for fifth on the Earnings list.

Jon Court - The jockey, who spent many years at Churchill Downs, now has a cha

nce to return home with one of the hottest horses in the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Super Saver - Even though he narrowly lost the Arkansas Derby, his effort was significant for the following:

Calvin Borel - One of the most beloved and well known jockeys in the past few years secured another ride in the Derby after he guided Super Saver to his 2nd place effort. Borel will be seeking his third victory in four years, which would be a remarkable achievement.

WinStar Farm - This well known Kentucky farm locked up their fourth Derby contender with Super Saver's finish. They could add a fifth if Drosselmeyer runs and wins next week's Coolmore Lexington Stakes. Drosselmeyer is currently 36th on the Earnings list and the Lexington victory is essential is he wants run on the first Saturday in May.

Todd Pletcher - The future Hall of Fame trainer, who is 0-for-24 in the Derby, now has six horses slated to "Run for the Roses" led by Eskendereya.

LOSERS

Jackson Bend - Even though he has been runner-up to Derby favorite Eskendereya two consecutive times, the Nick Zito trained colt slipped from #17 to #22 on the Earnings list after Saturday's Derby Prep upsets. The only shot he has to make it into the Derby field is with two defections. Zito's lone Derby hope is now with Florida Derby winner Ice Box.

Pleasant Prince - After finishing second in the Florida Derby, it seemed that he was all but a lock to make the Derby. But after it became apparent that he wasn't going to have enough money to get it, his connections elected to run him in the Blue Grass. That moves backfired as he finished seventh and now sits 29th on the Earnings List.

Odysseus - In the middle of March, he was the talk of racing after pulling off an improbable victory in the Tampa Bay Derby. Since that was his only Graded Stakes race, he was going to need no worse than a third place finish in the Blue Grass to move on to the Kentucky Derby. Things looked promising early as he was on the lead but he tired quickly on the final and finished last. He's now 26th on the list.

Aikenite/Todd Pletcher - The only bad news from Saturday for Pletcher was with Aikenite's subpar performance knocked him down 24th on the Earnings List. The Preakness might be next for him.

Make Music For Me - Trainer Alexis Barba has a small stable of horses and she was really hoping to have her first Derby starter but after his sixth place finish in the Blue Grass, he went from 20th to 25th on the Earnings List.

Backtalk - Even though he didn't run this weekend, he slipped out of the Top 20. He dropped form 18th to 23rd and all trainer Tom Amoss can do is wait and hope for defections.

Photos courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire

Updated Derby Bucks

In the ever changing Graded Stakes money picture for the Kentucky Derby, here's the list computer by yours truly with just one prep race left.

# Horse Trainer $$$$$$$

1 Lookin at Lucky Bob Baffert $1,480,000

2 Noble's Promise Ken McPeek $738,000

3 Rule Todd Pletcher $645,000

4 Sidney's Candy John Sadler $630,000

t-5 Eskendereya Todd Pletcher $600,000

t-5 Line of David John Sadler $600,000

7 Mission Impazible Todd Pletcher $485,934

8 Ice Box Nick Zito $457,500

9 Stately Victor Mike Maker $451,112

10 Endorsement Shannon Ritter $400,000

11 Conveyance Bob Baffert $386,000

12 American Lion Eoin Harty $378,000

13 Dublin D. Wayne Lukas $373,208

14 Super Saver Todd Pletcher $363,832

15 Discreetly Mine Todd Pletcher $355,000

16 Dean's Kitten Mike Maker $326,475

17 Interactif Todd Pletcher $307,950

18 Awesome Act Jeremy Noseda $285,000

19 Paddy O'Prado Dale Romans $250,950

20 Homeboykris Richard Dutrow $250,500

21 Uh Oh Bango Kory Owens $237,952

22 Jackson Bend Nick Zito $230,000

23 Backtalk Tom Amoss $225,916

24 Aikenite Todd Pletcher $221,750

25 Make Music For Me Alexis Barba $218,750

26 Odysseus Tom Albertrani $183,750

27 A Little Warm Tony Dutrow $180,000

27 Setsuko Richard Mandella $180,000

29 Pleasant Prince Wesley Ward $166,250

30 Tempted to Tapit Steve Klesaris $156,000

31 Caracortado Mike Machowsky $153,000

32 Connemara Todd Pletcher $138,500

33 Schoolyard Dreams Derek Ryan $137,500

34 Northern Giant D. Wayne Lukas $132,000

35 First Dude Dale Romans $97,500

36 Drosselmeyer Bill Mott $94,500

Top 10 Cons for Eskendereya

Now for those who don't like Derby favorites or just don't believe the hype of Eskendereya, this is for you. Here are 10 reasons to look at the other 19 horses in the Derby field.

CONS

10) Feeling Lucky? - Winning the Kentucky Derby involves a lot of luck and Eskendereya has been very fortunate in his races this year. The only time in his short career he had to overcome adversity was in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last November when he nearly got body checked early in the race and wound up finishing ninth. Every horse has the same obstacle in the Derby but when you are the favorite, that fortune or misfortune is magnified. Four leaf clover anyone?

9) Quality - One angle when trying to handicap the Derby is to figure out the quality of your previous competition. The Wood Memorial seems to have been a decent field but not very deep. In the race before, the Fountain of Youth, the competition was weaker. Only time will tell if he in fact beat good horses or not.

8) Road Weary - For a young horse, travelling a lot can be a concern. Eskendereya will not only be racing at his sixth different track in his career, but trainer Todd Pletcher elected to send his phenom back to Florida to train for two weeks before leaving for Kentucky. It seems like an unnecessary extra trip when you need every edge in a race like the Derby.

7) Out of Gas? - Although he won the Wood and Fountain of Youth easily, was it too much, too soon for the sophomore? It's very possible that he peaked with his eye opening victory in the Wood and to try and duplicate that in the Derby will take a special horse. He's not that yet.

6) Derby Chalk - After Lookin at Lucky's hard luck defeat in California, Eskendereya will be the choice on the first Saturday in May and being a Kentucky Derby favorite has proved to be a curse on many occasions. Although the percentage of favorite that have won the Derby (38%) is slightly higher than the industry average, it is somewhat surprising that more haven't won the "Run for the Roses." We've seen plenty of talented favorites come to Louisville and leave with nothing more than a long day at the track.

5) Road Never Traveled - History is on the side for Eskendereya after winning the Wood Memorial as it has produced 20 Derby victors. But the colt is trying to become the first horse to win the Fountain of Youth, Wood and Derby. It may seem to be a small thing but these little statistical anomalies seem to hold up over time.

4) No Guts, No Glory - Sometimes the measure of a great horse is how they win the close finishes. 1997 Derby winner Silver Charm became known for being one of the guttiest horses as he was battled tested time and again. In Eskendereya's four wins, he only once was asked for run and that was when he was on the lead against weak competition. In the Derby, he will be coming from behind and then likely have to turn back the country's best 3-year-old challengers.

3) Running Style - Based on what we've seen, the horses on the lead in the Derby should be moving at a pretty good clip and Eskendereya won't be far behind. That could soften him up and leave him vulnerable down the famous and long Churchill Downs stretch.

2) In The Saddle - Jockey John Velazquez is one of the top riders in the country but the "Run for the Roses" has eluded him. He is 0-for-11 and that's the sixth most Derby mounts without a win. It's his best chance for a victory but the pressure to win this event on a horse with huge expectations is tremendous. He's in a tough spot but none tougher than.....

1) Best Never To Win.... - It's a phrase we've heard many times in sports. Golfer Phil Mickelson was saddled with that title for years until he finally broke through and won The Masters. Trainer Todd Pletcher is in that very same position. Despite being one of the best in the business, he has come up empty with 24 horses in the Kentucky Derby. After this Derby is in the books, he will have had the second most Derby entrants in history, trailing only his mentor D. Wayne Lukas.

To his credit, he does have a Belmont Stakes victory but winning the Derby is THE benchmark. He is by far the leader with most starters in the Derby without winning. He will be peppered with questions over the next three weeks about that and he has said this colt is his best shot to end his Derby Drought. If Eskendereya doesn't win, it will be a long 364 days until Derby 137.

Top 10 Pros for Eskendereya

Over the next couple of days, we'll take a look at the Top 10 reason to love or hate likely Kentucky Derby favorite Eskendereya.

We'll kick it off on a positive note and give you plenty of ammo to back up your love for what could be one of the best 3-year-olds we've seen in a few years.

10) The Golden Path - The Wood Memorial has produced more Derby winners (20) that any other prep race. The race has also produced the most Triple Crown winners - six. Not to say that Eskendereya will be accomplish something that no equine athlete has done in 32 years but just a little food for thought.

9) The Pilot - John Velazquez has been of the better riders in the country but the "Run for the Roses" has eluded him. Of the elite jockeys in the country, he is one of the few left that hasn't won a Derby. He is 0-for-11 but that should benefit to him since the Derby is unpredictable and experience is crucial.

8) Great Frequent Flyer - For a young horse, the travel around the country hasn't seemed to bother him. When he runs in the Derby, it will be his sixth different track in seven races.

7) Just the Right Number of Races - Since 1937, only nine horses have won the Derby racing just twice as a 3-year-old. Granted, the last three have succeeded with just two races before the Derby but the magic formula has nearly always been three.

6) Lineage - On the surface, there is no question that Eskendereya's family is outstanding. For starters, his Grandfather, Seattle Slew, won the Triple Crown in 1977 and his father, Giant's Causeway, was one of the best horses in the world in 2000. What makes his bloodlines even better is that his parents and Grandfather liked the Churchill Downs racing surface. Giant's Causeway was second in the Breeders' Cup Classic, his mother trained at Churchill during her brief racing career and, of course, Slew won the Derby.

5) Well Rested - Pletcher has not overraced this colt in 2010. He gave Eskendereya six weeks off after winning the Fountain of Youth in mid-February and now will have a month break before the Kentucky Derby. That rest will undoubtedly come in handy as the Derby will be the longest race of his career.

4) En Fuego - Along with Sidney's Candy, there has been no hotter 3-year-old. His back-to-back wins are the best we've seen this year and he seems to getting better with each start which isn't good news for the rest of the field. He has won three in a row and his margin of victory in those triumphs has gotten bigger and bigger despite the competition getting tougher.

3) Triple Figures - For those that believe in them, his last two
Beyer Speed Figures (106, and 109) are tough to ignore. What's even more remarkable is he achieved those figures an d wasn't even asked to exert himself. The last horse to put up these lofty figures in his previous two races before the Derby was Smarty Jones in 2004 and he went on to w in the Derby and Preakness.

2) Head Coach - Trainer Todd Pletcher, one of the best in the business, was uncharacteristically heaping praise on his pupil after winning the Wood. It has been well documented that he is 0-for-24 in the Derby but even he was happy to concede on Saturday that this is by far his best chance to capture Roses. And, it goes without saying that he is overdue.

1) Dirt is Good - Unlike a handful of other Derby hopefuls, Eskendereya has never lost on traditional dirt tracks (4-for-4). In fact, his best races have been on dirt and, for those who don't know, Churchill Downs has a dirt surface. With the proliferation of the artificial dirt courses, it is becoming more and more rare to find a horse who has quality experience on traditional dirt tracks.

Photos courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire

The Money List - 4/4/10

Here is the Kentucky Derby Graded Stakes Earnings list as I have compiled it. (Churchill Downs will release its Official List during the week.) I have not included another of the fillies and Breeders' Cup Juvenile champ Vale of York since they appear unlikely to run but this should give you a good idea where everyone stands with less than a month to go.

Horse Trainer Graded Earnings Record

1 Lookin At Lucky Bob Baffert $1,480,000 8-6-1-1

2 Noble's Promise Ken McPeek $708,000 7-3-3-1

3 Rule Todd Pletcher $645,000 7-4-1-2

4 Sidney's Candy John Sadler $630,000 6-4-1-0

5 Eskendereya Todd Pletcher $600,000 6-4-1-0

6 Ice Box Nick Zito $457,500 7-3-0-0

7 Mission Impazible Todd Pletcher $473,434 5-2-1-1

8 Endorsement Shannon Ritter $400,000 4-2-1-0

9 Conveyance Bob Baffert $386,000 5-4-1-0

10 American Lion Eoin Harty $378,000 6-3-1-1

11 Discreetly Mine Todd Pletcher $355,000 8-2-3-1

12 Dean's Kitten Michael Maker $326,475 11-3-1-2

13 Awesome Act Jeremy Noseda $285,000 8-2-2-2

14 Dublin D. Wayne Lukas $273,208 7-2-1-1

15 Interactif Todd Pletcher W $270,450 7-3-2-1

16 Homeboykris Rick Dutrow $250,500 6-2-1-0

17 Jackson Bend Nick Zito R $230,000 9-5-4-0

18 Backtalk Tom Amoss $225,916 7-4-0-1

19 Aikenite Todd Pletcher $218,000 6-1-1-2

20 Make Music for MeAlexis Barba $215,000 7-1-2-1

21 Mendip Saeed bin Suroor $200,000 4-3-1-0

22 Radiohead (GB) Rick Dutrow $196,332 9-3-2-1

23 Uh Oh Bango Kory Owens $187,952 6-2-3-0

t24 A Little Warm Tony Dutrow $180,000 7-2-4-0

t24 Odysseus Tom Albertrani $180,000 4-3-1-0

t24 Setsuko Richard Mandella $180,000 8-1-4-2

27 Super Saver Todd Pletcher $163,832 5-2-1-1

28 Pleasant Prince Wesley Ward $162,500 7-1-2-1

29 Tempted to Tapit Steve Klesaris $156,000 6-1-3-1

30 Caracortado Mike Machowsky $153,000 7-5-0-1

31 Connemara Todd Pletcher $138,500 5-3-1-1

32 Schoolyard Dreams Derek Ryan $137,500 6-2-2-1

33 Northern Giant D. Wayne Lukas $127,000 8-1-2-2

34 Paddy O'Prado Dale Romans $100,950 5-1-1-2

35 Drosselmeyer Bill Mott $94,500 7-2-2-2

The Derby Dollars

Now that there are just three major Kentucky Derby preps left, the chances to earn that crucial money to make it into the starting gate are evaporating quickly.

Three talented horses that were on the "money bubble." took care of business on Saturday. Most notably, Eskendereya's (left) eye opening 9 3/4-length win in the Wood vaulted him to $600,000 in Graded Stakes earnings. According to my unofficial tally, that's #5 on the list.

The wire-to-wire Santa Anita Derby victory for Sidney's Candy (right) propelled him #4 ($630,000) on the list while American Lion rose to #10 ($378,000) after he captured the Illinois Derby.

Ironically, the runner-ups in the Wood and Santa Anita Derby could well be left out of the Derby. Jackson Bend, the Wood second place finisher, moved up to #17 with $230,000, but could easily be passed next weekend. Santa Anita Derby runner-up Setsuko, is in even more peril as he has $180,000 and is tied with two others (A Little Warm and Odysseus) at #24.

Others notables that are in even more trouble are:

#28 - Pleasant Prince - $162,500

Florida Derby runner-up may run one more time

#29 - Tempted to Tapit - $156,000

Trainer indicated that he may skip the Derby because of insufficient earnings

#30 - Caracortado - $153,000

Fourth in Santa Anita Derby and unlikely to run again before Derby

#31 - Connemara - $138,500

Todd Pletcher has not said if he will run again after finishing 3rd in Lane's End

#32 - Schoolyard Dreams - $137,500

Fourth in Wood Memorial and unlikely to run again before Derby

#35 - Drosselmeyer - $94,500

Third place finisher in Louisiana Derby likely to run in Coolmore Lexington

The money drama will continue over the next two weeks but three horses and their connections can rest easy.

Santa Anita Derby photo courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire

The New King of New York

Going into the Wood Memorial there were a lot of unanswered questions and chief among them was if Eskendereya was the real deal. It didn't take him long to silence a lot of his critics as he rolled to a 9 3/4-length victory over Jackson Bend.

On a foggy and unexpectedly chilly afternoon at Aqueduct, the well bred son of Giant's Causeway sat just off the lead and then rolled up on the outside on the far turn and cruised home to the easy and eye opening victory.

After the race, trainer Todd Pletcher, who is seeking his first Derby winner, was ecstatic after the race.

"It's amazing," he said. "The further he goes, the stronger he gets....We've never had a horse we know could handle the mile and a quarter and we've not had one put together a couple of preps like this one. We've had some good prep wins but none as impressive as these two."

Those are strong words from one of the bests trainer in America. And there certainly have been many, many horses who have come into the Derby with a lot of hype and failed to deliver but you rarely hear this kind of praise from Pletcher.

Rounding out the finish in the Wood was Awesome Act, Schoolyard Dreams, Carnivore and Most Happy Fella.

Only time will tell if he indeed beat a great field in the Wood Memorial. You should expect to see Jackson Bend and Awesome Act also move on to Louisville.

"These guys have to run against Muhammad Ali (Eskendereya)," said trainer Nick Zito, who conditioned Jackson Bend. "That's smokin' Joe Frazier (Jackson Bend). Eskendereya just proved himself a monster. For Jackson Bend, you can not give him enough credit. I am very proud of him...We're going to Kentucky and see what happens. Kentucky is a place for a horse to get good...One thing we do know - Eskendereya is in a class by himself."

"My horse was not suited by the pace," said Awesome Act's trainer Jeremy Noseda. "It was a great performance by the winner but for my horse the pace was wrong. He lost a shoe coming out of the gate, which didn't help. We'll move on to Kentucky and go from there."

The Wood has produced 20 Derby winners and the last won to capture both the Wood and Derby was Fusaichi Pegasus (2000). (Fusaichi Pegasus was sent off as the Derby favorite)

The bottom line is that at least for one day, we saw a horse with all the tools to win the "Run for the Roses" and should help Pletcher break his 0-for-Derby streak he would love to eradicate.