Derby Over Analysis, One Step at a Time

With just one Kentucky Derby prep race left, the over analysis of the potential field can really begin and I'll start off with a relatively easy analysis.

Sometimes the simplest way to analyze at a race is to look at the information that is right in front of you. The Daily Racing Form publishes a set of speed figures, Beyers (named for their inventor Andy Beyer), and they give you a quick and easy look at how fast a horse ran in a particular race.

(If you want a little more info on the Beyer Speed Figures click http://drf.com/flash/drf_pp_tutorial.html)

For those who believe in the Beyer Speed Figures, there are only three horses who have broken through the 100 barrier.

Eskendereya, the likely 2-1 favorite, is the number king as he racked up a 109 in last week's Wood Memorial and 106 in the Fountain of Youth back in February.

Next on the list is Santa Anita Derby winner Sidney's Candy. The horse, who is named for weight loss giant Jenny Craig's late husband Sidney, scored a 100 last week.

The only other horse inside the Top 20 who has a landed a triple digit figure might surprise you. (It surprised me.) Endorsement, who won the Sunland Park Derby on March 28, earned a 101. And before you dismiss the Sunland Park Derby, it produced a little horse named Mine That Bird.

The only major horse who hasn't cracked 100 is 2-year-old champion Lookin at Lucky. One would imagine he might have if didn't get sideswiped in the Santa Anita Derby but he is widely considered to be one of the horses to beat in less than three weeks.

What do these numbers mean? Quite possibly nothing but at the very least you see, at a glance, who merits your attention.

There will be plenty of other ways to analyze the field of 20 but we'll take it slow and pass on additional insight as we countdown to the Derby.

Top 10 Pros for Eskendereya

Over the next couple of days, we'll take a look at the Top 10 reason to love or hate likely Kentucky Derby favorite Eskendereya.

We'll kick it off on a positive note and give you plenty of ammo to back up your love for what could be one of the best 3-year-olds we've seen in a few years.

10) The Golden Path - The Wood Memorial has produced more Derby winners (20) that any other prep race. The race has also produced the most Triple Crown winners - six. Not to say that Eskendereya will be accomplish something that no equine athlete has done in 32 years but just a little food for thought.

9) The Pilot - John Velazquez has been of the better riders in the country but the "Run for the Roses" has eluded him. Of the elite jockeys in the country, he is one of the few left that hasn't won a Derby. He is 0-for-11 but that should benefit to him since the Derby is unpredictable and experience is crucial.

8) Great Frequent Flyer - For a young horse, the travel around the country hasn't seemed to bother him. When he runs in the Derby, it will be his sixth different track in seven races.

7) Just the Right Number of Races - Since 1937, only nine horses have won the Derby racing just twice as a 3-year-old. Granted, the last three have succeeded with just two races before the Derby but the magic formula has nearly always been three.

6) Lineage - On the surface, there is no question that Eskendereya's family is outstanding. For starters, his Grandfather, Seattle Slew, won the Triple Crown in 1977 and his father, Giant's Causeway, was one of the best horses in the world in 2000. What makes his bloodlines even better is that his parents and Grandfather liked the Churchill Downs racing surface. Giant's Causeway was second in the Breeders' Cup Classic, his mother trained at Churchill during her brief racing career and, of course, Slew won the Derby.

5) Well Rested - Pletcher has not overraced this colt in 2010. He gave Eskendereya six weeks off after winning the Fountain of Youth in mid-February and now will have a month break before the Kentucky Derby. That rest will undoubtedly come in handy as the Derby will be the longest race of his career.

4) En Fuego - Along with Sidney's Candy, there has been no hotter 3-year-old. His back-to-back wins are the best we've seen this year and he seems to getting better with each start which isn't good news for the rest of the field. He has won three in a row and his margin of victory in those triumphs has gotten bigger and bigger despite the competition getting tougher.

3) Triple Figures - For those that believe in them, his last two
Beyer Speed Figures (106, and 109) are tough to ignore. What's even more remarkable is he achieved those figures an d wasn't even asked to exert himself. The last horse to put up these lofty figures in his previous two races before the Derby was Smarty Jones in 2004 and he went on to w in the Derby and Preakness.

2) Head Coach - Trainer Todd Pletcher, one of the best in the business, was uncharacteristically heaping praise on his pupil after winning the Wood. It has been well documented that he is 0-for-24 in the Derby but even he was happy to concede on Saturday that this is by far his best chance to capture Roses. And, it goes without saying that he is overdue.

1) Dirt is Good - Unlike a handful of other Derby hopefuls, Eskendereya has never lost on traditional dirt tracks (4-for-4). In fact, his best races have been on dirt and, for those who don't know, Churchill Downs has a dirt surface. With the proliferation of the artificial dirt courses, it is becoming more and more rare to find a horse who has quality experience on traditional dirt tracks.

Photos courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire

The Derby Dollars

Now that there are just three major Kentucky Derby preps left, the chances to earn that crucial money to make it into the starting gate are evaporating quickly.

Three talented horses that were on the "money bubble." took care of business on Saturday. Most notably, Eskendereya's (left) eye opening 9 3/4-length win in the Wood vaulted him to $600,000 in Graded Stakes earnings. According to my unofficial tally, that's #5 on the list.

The wire-to-wire Santa Anita Derby victory for Sidney's Candy (right) propelled him #4 ($630,000) on the list while American Lion rose to #10 ($378,000) after he captured the Illinois Derby.

Ironically, the runner-ups in the Wood and Santa Anita Derby could well be left out of the Derby. Jackson Bend, the Wood second place finisher, moved up to #17 with $230,000, but could easily be passed next weekend. Santa Anita Derby runner-up Setsuko, is in even more peril as he has $180,000 and is tied with two others (A Little Warm and Odysseus) at #24.

Others notables that are in even more trouble are:

#28 - Pleasant Prince - $162,500

Florida Derby runner-up may run one more time

#29 - Tempted to Tapit - $156,000

Trainer indicated that he may skip the Derby because of insufficient earnings

#30 - Caracortado - $153,000

Fourth in Santa Anita Derby and unlikely to run again before Derby

#31 - Connemara - $138,500

Todd Pletcher has not said if he will run again after finishing 3rd in Lane's End

#32 - Schoolyard Dreams - $137,500

Fourth in Wood Memorial and unlikely to run again before Derby

#35 - Drosselmeyer - $94,500

Third place finisher in Louisiana Derby likely to run in Coolmore Lexington

The money drama will continue over the next two weeks but three horses and their connections can rest easy.

Santa Anita Derby photo courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire

Derby Trainer in Trouble?

Ed DeRosa at Thoroughbred Times wrote a story on trainer Jeff Mullins (pictured on far right) Sunday afternoon which alleges that Mullins attempted to administer an over-the-counter cough suppressant called Air Power to Gato Go Win. The horse was slated to run in the Bay Shore Stakes, part of the Wood Memorial Day card on Saturday at Aqueduct.

Giving a horse cough medicine certainly seems fairly innocuous and the story might be a little overblown. But if proved true by the New York Racing Stewards, shame on Mullins for being stupid enough to walk into a barn under surveillance with a syringe.

The Thoroughbred Times story was clear to point out that I Want Revenge, the likely Kentucky Derby favorite after winning the Wood Memorial, was not administered any medication on race day so he would appear to be in the clear.

The simple fact is that the last thing Thoroughbred Racing needs is another black eye. Racing has had a knack over the last few years to "take one step forward and then two steps back."

Mullins may have simply tried to give Gato Go Win cough medicine if he came down with an ailment. Let's hope that's the case.

The Derby is less than a month away and it's the one time of year where non-racing fans pay attention to the sport and a chance to garner more fans which the sport desperately needs. The last thing you want in the days and weeks leading up to the "Run for the Roses" are more and more questions about illegal medication and the perception that most trainers in the game cheat to win.

Those questions hounded Richard Dutrow, Jr. through the Triple Crown run of Big Brown last year as he's had a checkered reputation over the years. Now it appears that Mullins maybe in the media bulls eye if the allegations prove true.

Mullins, who has been busted in the past for equine drug positives needs to come out and tackle the issue head on. Anything short of that will leave a potential black cloud hanging over one of the greatest sporting events in the world.

(photo courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire)

Sunday Follow-up

The racing world is abuzz about I Want Revenge's win in Saturday's Wood Memorial. The visually impressive performance will make him the Kentucky Derby favorite pending a blowout by someone in next week's Toyota Blue Grass at Keeneland or the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn.

I Want Revenge (shown on far right) will get plenty of time to adjust to life under the Twin Spires as he leaves for Churchill Downs on Monday. Not that spending nearly a month training at Churchill Downs guarantees a victory but trainer Jeff Mullins is doing the right thing.

I Want Revenge has already made two round trips from Los Angeles to New York so limiting his travel is a smart move for a young horse. Be curious how many days trainer Jeff Mullins will spend in Louisville but he is not a Derby rookie.

"He came out of the race real well," Mullins said from Aqueduct this mornning. "We had him out this morning, went over him from head to toe and everything looks good."

For those who love numbers (like me), the Daily Racing Form has their trademarked Beyer Speed Figures. There haven't been many 3-year-olds on the Road the Derby with Beyer Figures over 100.

I Want Revenge ran a 113 in the Gotham last month so I wondered if he could top that lofty figure. Meanwhile, Pioneerof the Nile, who won Saturday's Santa Anita Derby, had never broken 100 in any race. After going to drf.com, here are the Beyer numbers for yesterday.

I Want Revenge's - 103
Pioneerof the Nile - 96

That's good news for both horses. The 96 for Pioneerof the Nile is his career best and I Want Revenge dropped 10 points from his Gotham victory but that should bode well for him in the Derby.

The interesting part to keep in mind is that Pioneerof the Nile and I Want Revenge went head-to-head twice in California and Pioneerof the Nile won both matchups. Keep in mind the racetracks in California are the artificial kind while Aqueduct and Churchill Downs have the
"traditional dirt."

When Pioneerof the Nile starts in the Derby, it will be his first start on "traditional dirt." That will bear close watching.

The mystery race of Saturday was Musket Man in the Illinois Derby. He is getting hot at the right time and quietly has posted an impressive career record of five wins in six starts. Win or lose in the Kentucky Derby, their owners got a bargain when they bought the colt at auction at Keeneland for just $17,000.

(Photo Courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire)

Super Impressive Win For I Want Revenge

Every once in a while at the track, you see a performance that takes your breath away and leaves you shaking your head saying to yourself "how did he do that?" Saturday at Aqueduct, I saw one of those incredible feats in horse racing.

I Want Revenge, the big favorite in the Wood Memorial, gave the field a nice head start as the race began but overcame the adversity at the starting gate (on the far right) and through a rough stretch run to win the $750,000 Kentucky Derby prep race in New York.

Most times when a horse is "left at the gate", the horse gets discouraged and doesn't run or the horse make his or her run and then tires. I Want Revenge's trainer, Jeff Mullins, summed it up perfectly.

"When he missed the break, I was already heading back to the barn at that point....I thought we were done. I didn't know we had a chance."

When you see the final margin of victory of 1 1/2 lengths and the final time of 1:49.49, it doesn't seem very impressive. But, much like a box score of a basketball game when a player doesn't score a lot of points but did all the intangibles to help the team win, jockey Joe Talamo and I Want Revenge did what they had to do to win and then some.

After falling behind at the start, Talamo guided I Want To Revenge along the inside and started to make up ground slowly and steadily. Then, as the field began its turn for home, I Want Revenge made his way to fifth and then had to wait for the wall of horses in front of him to clear. Once the hole opened, Talamo bulled his way through and took the lead just before the finish line.

An impressive win to be sure.

"He had every trouble you could have in a race and still overcome it," Mullins said. "It tells me he's a pretty nice horse. That's as good as it gets right there. We've got one more show to go and if he can win that one, he's a pretty special animal."

Also smiling after the race were owners David Lanzman and IEAH Stables. IEAH just purchased 50% of the horse earlier in the week and must have had a little "deja vu." IEAH was one of the owners of 2008 Kentucky Derby winner Big Brown when the colt overcame starting in the 20th position in the gate to post one of the most impressive wins in the Derby.

Oh by the way, in case you care, the complete order of finish for the Wood was: I Want Revenge, West Side Bernie, Just a Conicidence, Atomic Rain, Imperial Council, Cellar Dweller, Lord Justice and Lime Rickey.

The biggest disappointment of the day was Imperial Council's fifth place finish. Although the horse flipped over in the paddock before the race, trainer Shug McGaughey made no excuses and said "There's no chance he's going to the Kentucky Derby."

Looking at the overall Kentucky Derby picture, the list of legitimate contenders is shrinking rapidly. Pioneerof the Nile won the Santa Anita Derby but was not impressive. Musket Man captured the Illinois Derby but beat a very, very weak field.

This day belonged to I Want Revenge and he will be your Kentucky Derby favorite and my choice for the "Run for the Roses."

(photo courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire)

Countdown to the Wood Memorial

As we count down to the final minutes before the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, the paddock is chock full of people.

Imperial Council, the second betting choice in the race, has been very hard to handle by his people and seems really keyed up today.

The rest of the horses seem very calm and not bothered by the extra attention before the race.

Horses also that are close to the lead seem to have an advantage so watch closely as the Wood Memorial gets rolling

Saturday 1:00 p.m.

In the Aqueduct Press Box for Wood Memorial Day....a Press Box that is about three-quarters full in a nice and rare site. Normally, there is just a small group of people here.

Plus the dulcet tones of track announcer Tom Durkin, the best in the game, are back from his winter hiatus. New York racing is not the same without Durkin.

It is a windy day and the clouds do not appear to want to go away. But, after a cold winter, it's in the 50's so not a bad day.

All the horses in the big races around the country are still slated to run including the four stakes races here at Aqueduct.

Will be back later as the big races get rolling.

Friday Night

On the eve of the one of the biggest pre-Derby racing days, here's some things to look forward to tomorrow.

On my radio show (The Kentucky Winner's Circle with E.J. Clark and Molly Rosen), we will have Daily Racing Form's David Grening to talk about the Road to the Kentucky Derby and a close look at the horses running in the Wood Memorial in New York. If you are in Louisville, the show is this and every Saturday from 11:00 a.m. - 12 Noon and WKJK- AM (1080). Tune in.

All horses are a go for the big three races (Wood Memorial, Illinois Derby and Santa Anita Derby). The horses to watch in those races.

Wood Memorial - I Want Revenge and Imperial Council. For those betting on the race, don't take a very short price on I Want Revenge. He may well "bounce" after his dazzling win last month in the Gotham Stakes and Imperial Council needs the victory to assure himself a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate.

Illinois Derby - The whole field. Although Musket Man won the Tampa Derby last month, this group of 11 horses is very evenly matched and is not a very strong field. An upset here is likely and be wary of any horse who wins this race.

Santa Anita Derby - Pioneerof the Nile and The Pamplemousse. The two West Coast heavyweights have yet to meet head-to-head but they both have swept all the major 3-year-old races in Southern California. This should be a great race and a lot of people have knocked these horses in part because their times haven't been that fast and they are running on an "artificial surface" in SoCal .They should be taken seriously for the Derby if they live up to their billing Saturday.

And for those who following the road to the Kentucky Oaks, the sister race to the Derby, two of the big favorites are running this weekend.

Stardom Bound, the reigning 2-year-old champion, is the big favorite in Saturday's Ashland Stakes at Keeneland. Meanwhile, the white hot Rachel Alexandra scared off a lot her rivals as she only faces four others in the Apple Blossom at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas on Sunday. Not worth betting those races but should be fun to watch.

I will be at Aqueduct tomorrow and will be writing updates throughout the day.

Good night and "May the Horse Be With You."

Maiden Voyage

Welcome to my new blog. Before we get this race started, a quick introduction is in order for those who don't me. (If you already know me, please skip ahead a couple of paragraphs.)

My love of horse racing started when I was a kid watching racing at Aqueduct and Belmont in New York. I then moved my tack to Louisville to attend the University of Louisville's Equine Administration program. While finishing up my degree in 1996, I began an internship at Churchill Downs and landed a full-time job there upon graduation in 1997. While rounding the final turn of my Churchill tenure (ok, 2003), I began co-hosting the Kentucky Winners Circle Radio Show with E.J. Clark (for those in Louisville: Saturdays, 11am, WKJK-1080 on your AM dial).

I moved back to New York in November 2004 but my love of racing has endured. I still co-host the radio show and attend the races frequently.

Now that we've crossed the finish line on my bio to-date, it's on to the blog. It is my sincerest hope that the perspective and insights I have into the racing world are both informative and intriguing (and perhaps find you a winner for the betting windows).

To say this weekend is incredibly important for the Kentucky Derby contenders, is an understatement. The potential field is starting to take shape but it looks like more than 20 want to be in the starting gate.

And what complicates it even more is that one spot is already reserved for Mafaaz, the winner of the Kentucky Derby Challenge Stakes in England last month. So with only 19 spots left, and six major races before the Derby, the scramble for cash is on.

This week's race to keep a close eye on are:
Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in NY
Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita in Los Angeles
Illinois Derby at Hawthorne in Chicago

I will update the horses to watch and the crucial money chase on Thursday.

Stay tuned!