Top 10 Cons for Eskendereya

Now for those who don't like Derby favorites or just don't believe the hype of Eskendereya, this is for you. Here are 10 reasons to look at the other 19 horses in the Derby field.

CONS

10) Feeling Lucky? - Winning the Kentucky Derby involves a lot of luck and Eskendereya has been very fortunate in his races this year. The only time in his short career he had to overcome adversity was in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last November when he nearly got body checked early in the race and wound up finishing ninth. Every horse has the same obstacle in the Derby but when you are the favorite, that fortune or misfortune is magnified. Four leaf clover anyone?

9) Quality - One angle when trying to handicap the Derby is to figure out the quality of your previous competition. The Wood Memorial seems to have been a decent field but not very deep. In the race before, the Fountain of Youth, the competition was weaker. Only time will tell if he in fact beat good horses or not.

8) Road Weary - For a young horse, travelling a lot can be a concern. Eskendereya will not only be racing at his sixth different track in his career, but trainer Todd Pletcher elected to send his phenom back to Florida to train for two weeks before leaving for Kentucky. It seems like an unnecessary extra trip when you need every edge in a race like the Derby.

7) Out of Gas? - Although he won the Wood and Fountain of Youth easily, was it too much, too soon for the sophomore? It's very possible that he peaked with his eye opening victory in the Wood and to try and duplicate that in the Derby will take a special horse. He's not that yet.

6) Derby Chalk - After Lookin at Lucky's hard luck defeat in California, Eskendereya will be the choice on the first Saturday in May and being a Kentucky Derby favorite has proved to be a curse on many occasions. Although the percentage of favorite that have won the Derby (38%) is slightly higher than the industry average, it is somewhat surprising that more haven't won the "Run for the Roses." We've seen plenty of talented favorites come to Louisville and leave with nothing more than a long day at the track.

5) Road Never Traveled - History is on the side for Eskendereya after winning the Wood Memorial as it has produced 20 Derby victors. But the colt is trying to become the first horse to win the Fountain of Youth, Wood and Derby. It may seem to be a small thing but these little statistical anomalies seem to hold up over time.

4) No Guts, No Glory - Sometimes the measure of a great horse is how they win the close finishes. 1997 Derby winner Silver Charm became known for being one of the guttiest horses as he was battled tested time and again. In Eskendereya's four wins, he only once was asked for run and that was when he was on the lead against weak competition. In the Derby, he will be coming from behind and then likely have to turn back the country's best 3-year-old challengers.

3) Running Style - Based on what we've seen, the horses on the lead in the Derby should be moving at a pretty good clip and Eskendereya won't be far behind. That could soften him up and leave him vulnerable down the famous and long Churchill Downs stretch.

2) In The Saddle - Jockey John Velazquez is one of the top riders in the country but the "Run for the Roses" has eluded him. He is 0-for-11 and that's the sixth most Derby mounts without a win. It's his best chance for a victory but the pressure to win this event on a horse with huge expectations is tremendous. He's in a tough spot but none tougher than.....

1) Best Never To Win.... - It's a phrase we've heard many times in sports. Golfer Phil Mickelson was saddled with that title for years until he finally broke through and won The Masters. Trainer Todd Pletcher is in that very same position. Despite being one of the best in the business, he has come up empty with 24 horses in the Kentucky Derby. After this Derby is in the books, he will have had the second most Derby entrants in history, trailing only his mentor D. Wayne Lukas.

To his credit, he does have a Belmont Stakes victory but winning the Derby is THE benchmark. He is by far the leader with most starters in the Derby without winning. He will be peppered with questions over the next three weeks about that and he has said this colt is his best shot to end his Derby Drought. If Eskendereya doesn't win, it will be a long 364 days until Derby 137.