Wet Track Pointers

WEATHER FORECAST UPDATE: Good news is that worst of probably won't get going until mid-morning but it's still a bad forecast. Here's the latest from the National Weather Service.

Saturday: Periods of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 10am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 74. South wind between 10 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Saturday Night: Periods of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 66. South wind between 10 and 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

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The only certainty on Derby Day this year appears to be the weather which will be a rainy mess. Now the key is trying to figure out who will like the sloppy going on Saturday.

Here's some good info.

There are four horses that have already won on a wet track:

#4 Super Saver (Wet Track Record - 2-1-1-0) - His win on a sloppy track came at Belmont Park last year when he broke his maiden by seven lengths. His other wet track race came in his debut and he finished second to fellow Derby entrant Discreetly Mine. Plus, he has jockey Calvin Borel aboard and he has won two of the last three Derbys.

#11 Devil May Care (Wet Track Record - 1-1-0-0) - The filly enjoyed her only run in the slop when she debuted with a 4 3/4-length victory at Saratoga.

#15 Discreetly Mine (Wet Track Record - 2-1-0-0) - The Todd Pletcher-trained colt rolled to a 6 1/4-length win on a good track at Saratoga last August. He beat stablemate Super Saver in that race. His wet track loss came in early January when he finished fourth in the Spectacular Bid at Gulfstream Park.

#18 Backtalk (Wet Track Record - 2-2-0-0) - The son of 2004 Derby winner Smarty Jones won his career debut by 2 3/4-lengths on a good track. In February, he captured a minor stakes race at Delta Downs on a sloppy track.

Others to keep an eye on:

#2 Ice Box - He's never run on a wet track but his father, Pulpit, liked it. And one of trainer Nick Zito's Derby wins came on a sloppy track (Go For Gin).

#6 Stately Victor - In his career debut, he finished second on a "good" track at Saratoga.

#14 Mission Impazible - He finished third in last year's Kentucky Juvenile at Churchill on a "good" track and was second in a "sloppy" track allowance race at Gulfstream in January.

#17 Dublin - Don't let his fourth place finish to Backtalk last year at Churchill fool you. He had a tough trip in that race and his parents both ran well on wet tracks.