Derby Selections

Kentucky Derby Picks -

Ok...now that the talk is over, it's time to pick a winner.

Unfortunately, my initial selection, I Want Revenge came up with a injury this morning and was scratched.

Now, after spending hours looking over all the contenders again, here is who I settled on in finish order:

6) Friesan Fire - With the track still wet and the morning-line favorite out, the race sets up perfectly for him. He should be just off the front end early on, make his move near the final turn and hold off a host of fast closing horses. The win would give trainer Larry Jones his first Derby victory.

15) Dunkirk - Perhaps the most talented horse in the field will benefit from an expected fast pace early on. The colt, was sold for $3.7 million dollars at public auction, will be closing late and if he avoids trouble, will be very tough. Only question will be how he handles the wet track.

16) Pioneerof the Nile - Trainer Bob Baffert has won three Kentucky Derby's and this colt is on a roll after winning four straight. The big question about him is will he handle traditional dirt. He's only run on "artificial dirt" but his parents both loved running at Churchill Downs.

11) Chocolate Candy - Another horse who ran exclusively on "artificial dirt" has shown a lot of promise this year and was second to Pioneerof the Nile in his last start. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, nicknamed the "King of Northern California", will have his horse in mid-pack
Here's one last look at the Kentucky Derby contenders as we countdown to the "Run for the Roses"

3) Mr. Hot Stuff - The little brother of Colonel John will be another horse coming "from the clounds" down the stretch. Will be a huge price.

Others that have question marks but not picking: 2) Musket Man; 5) Hold Me Back; 7) Papa Clem; 12) General Quarters; 19) Desert Party

Derby Draw Analysis - Winners & Losers

Even with the late defection of Win Willy due to a leg injury Wednesday morning, the Kentucky Derby field still reached 20 with the late addition of Nowhere to Hide. Now with the Post Position Draw complete, let's take a look at the winners and losers during the draw.

WINNERS
15 - Dunkirk- The highly touted and talented colt will need a lot of breaks to go his way and his starting spot is a good start. The 15 post is great because this is the first gate in the Auxiliary Starting Gate. (The main starting gate holds just 14 horses.) As a result there is a nice space to his left that will give crucial room to maneuver early in the race. He will likely drop back early but it's good to have a little cushion right after the start.

16 - Pioneerof the Nile - Leave it to three-time Derby winning trainer Bob Baffert to put his colt (right) in spot that been successful over the last few years. As Dunkirk is likely to take advantage of the extra space to his left, Pioneer should benefit from that and stay outside and away from a lot of the traditional bumping that goes on at the start of the race. The key will be not getting pushed to far outside on the first turn.

6 - Friesan Fire - Although it isn't a tremendous victory for him, trainer Larry Jones put his horse in a pretty solid starting position. With his tactical speed, the colt should be able to get near the early lead and settle in a good spot to make his run around the far turn. The only danger for him could be is if he is squeezed by another horse to his inside. With the forecast for rain and his love for a sloppy track, this spot could win up being a huge plus in the end.

LOSERS

19 - Desert Party - A horse that appeared to be powerhouse owner Godolphin's best shot to win the Derby, drew the "short straw" by having a late selection. The result left him in a slot that no horse has won from in the 135-year history of the Derby. Since Desert Party likes to be near the lead, jockey Ramon Dominguez will have a tough decision to make: push his horse early to be near the lead and potentially use up some "gas" or take a chance in not pushing the pedal but could be pushed out wide on the first turn.

1 - West Side Bernie - A lot of times, being on the rail, in the No. 1 starting gate is a good thing. In the Derby, it's usually a death knell. Only one horse (Ferdinand, 1986) in the last 46 years has won for this spot. The inside spot will probably make West Side Bernie get near the lead early which is contrary to his running style of dropping back. If he doesn't move up early, he could get shut off and lose all chance early on.

20 - Flying Private - D. Wayne Lukas (right), a Hall of Famer and four-time Derby winning trainer, has been a master of getting a horse ready for a big race. But this 50-1 shot already had his work cut out for him but drawing the outside post might have sealed his fate. Only Big Brown, the 2008 Derby winner, has won from the starting position, and this horse is no Big Brown. He will be pushed outside on both turns which will likely use up most of his energy.

CAUTION

13 - I Want Revenge - Although the 3-1 Derby favorite isn't in a bad starting position, he has the potential of getting squeezed by General Quarters and Atomic Rain. The big advantage for I Want Revenge is that he overcame plenty of trouble in the Wood Memorial and has a very versatile running style. Young jockey Joe Talamo will be tested once again.

Photos courtesy of Eclipse Sports Wire

Tuesday Morning News

So much for being done with Derby horses being injured.

Square Eddie, one of the better 2-year-olds from last year, was pulled from the Kentucky Derby by trainer Doug O'Neill this morning after re-aggravating a shin injury that kept him on the sidelines most of the winter. The latest ailment doesn't appear to be serious but it certainly ends his hope for wearing roses on Saturday.

The workout of the morning came from Wood Memorial winner and likely Derby favorite I Want Revenge. With his regular jockey (and now TV star) Joe Talamo aboard, the son of Stephen Got Even, worked a half mile in :47.20 (fractional splits - 11.40 (1/8 mile), 23.20 (1/4 mile), 35 2/5 (3/8 mile) and finished out the work going 5/8 mile in 1:00. 80.

Most of the attention over the past few days had shifted away from I Want Revenge to other major contenders like Friesan Fire, Dunkirk and Pioneerof the Nile. But after his work on Tuesday morning, that should erase a lot of doubts if the Jeff Mullins-trained colt can handle the Churchill Downs surface.

Let's hope that Mullins' troubles are behind him for now and the attention does stay focused on the horse the rest of the week.

The other big news on Tuesday is that we will have the field for the Kentucky Oaks, the sister race to the Derby. Rachel Alexandra, who has been nearly untouchable this year, will be the prohibitive favorite.

There are also some great races slated for the race preceding the Oaks and we'll dive more into those later.

What You Might Have Missed Monday....

On a rainy day in Louisville, there wasn't a lot of Kentucky Derby news but there were a few highlights.

The field of horses wanting to run in the Derby shrunk to 23 but for those in the Top 20, now all but one is "definite."

The only horse that is on the fence is Advice, the Todd Pletcher-trained winner of Saturday's Coolmore Lexington at Keeneland. It would be surprising if the horse didn't run but a two week turn around is a little short. Pletcher pulled Take the Points from Derby consideration and is now likely to run in the Lone Star Derby.

The Derby jockey shuffle continued as Robby Albarado took the mount on the D. Wayne Lukas trained Flying Private.

Calvin Borel, who captured the 2007 Derby aboard Street Sense, picked up Mine That Bird.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Square Eddie is without a jockey after Edgar Prado chose Dunkirk and Rafael Bejarano stayed with Arkansas Derby winner Papa Clem. The best available riders that trainer Doug O'Neill could chose are: Alex Solis, Tyler Baze, David Flores and Javier Castellano. (My prediction - Baze).

Alan Garcia and Ramon Dominguez are slated to ride the Godolphin-owned duo of Desert Party and Regal Ransom. What hasn't been decided is which jockey will ride which horse. Frankie Dettori, who rode Desert Party in Dubai is not coming over for the Derby. Not a big vote of confidence.

As many as six Derby contenders are slated to work on Tuesday:

Pioneerof the Nile, I Want Revenge, Chocolate Candy, Win Willy, Mine That Bird and Atomic Rain.

One Trick Pony

Horse racing was searching for a good and heartwarming story after Jeff Mullins, who trains likely Kentucky Derby favorite I Want Revenge, was caught by New York racing officials giving a horse cough medicine. The search ended in Lexington as a man with just one horse, General Quarters, in his barn captured the $750,000 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland.

Tom McCarthy, a 75-year-old retired high school principal, acquired General Quarters for just $20,000 out of race at Churchill Downs last May. After a very ordinary 2008, the gray colt gave his owner/trainer the ultimate lottery ticket in 2009 - winning two of four starts including two major Kentucky Derby prep races.

And, oh by the way, the horse was earned $641,375 in his career. Not bad.

The racing world was introduced earlier this year to McCarthy when he won the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa on Valentine's Day. Now McCarthy and his one horse will take center stage in Louisville as one of the major contenders for the Run for the Roses.

The Blue Grass served another important purpose - eliminating some of the Derby pretenders. Looks like only three horses will move on to Louisville: General Quarters, Hold Me Back and Terrain. The big question mark is European import Mafaaz. He ran 8th but the owner and trainer were non-committal as to his next race. (Mafaaz has a guaranteed spot in the Derby as he won the Kentucky Derby Challenge Stakes in England last month.)

The Arkansas Derby proved to be a weak race as Old Fashioned, once on top of many Derby contender lists, couldn't hold off Papa Clem. The loss marked the second straight defeat for Old Fashioned after being rattling off four straights wins to begin his career.

The interesting side note to Papa Clem beat I Want Revenge in February at Santa Anita. Papa Clem is the second high profile Southern California based horse to make a successful transition from the artificial "pro ride" surface to conventional dirt.

Only one more prep race to go - The Coolmore Lexington next Saturday at Keeneland. A full field is expected headed by Derby contender Square Eddie.

Many Questions but any answers?

As the "Road to the Kentucky Derby" winds down, we have a solid group of five or six favorites led by Wood Memorial winner I Want Revenge. But will today's two major prep races, the Toyota Blue Grass and the Arkansas Derby help clear up the rest of potential field for the Derby?

The Blue Grass has always been good barometer of who is going to win the Kentucky Derby. The race has produced 23 winners but the caveat is that only two winners of the Blue Grass in the past 37 years have gone on to win the "Run for the Roses." It is important to note that Street Sense (2nd, 2007) and Thunder Gulch (1995, 4th) have gone on to the win Derby despite not winning the Blue Grass in the last 14 years.

Fast forward to this afternoon and is there a Derby winner amongst the field of 11? Hold Me Back is the legitimate early favorite as he has won three of four starts and never lost on the "artificial" dirt known as Polytrack. Keeneland has that same type of surface. But even if Hold Me Back wins today, does that make him a legitimate contender for the Derby?

Then, what do you with the horses who don't win the Blue Grass? A lot of them have an built-in excuse if they don't like the Polytrack.

In the Arkansas Derby, trainer Larry Jones tries to get Old Fashioned back into the winners' circle after his defeat at the hands of 56-1 longshot Win Willy. If Old Fashioned wins, then he jumps back into the uppper echelon of Derby contenders.

Jumping back into the Derby picture yesterday was Square Eddie. He was dismissed as a candidate for the Derby in January when he was injured but is expected to return to the races next Saturday at Keeneland in the Lexington Stakes, the final Derby prep.

So even though last week, it looked like we settled a solid top five or six horses for the Derby, today can muddy the waters quite a bit.

Derby Trainer in Trouble?

Ed DeRosa at Thoroughbred Times wrote a story on trainer Jeff Mullins (pictured on far right) Sunday afternoon which alleges that Mullins attempted to administer an over-the-counter cough suppressant called Air Power to Gato Go Win. The horse was slated to run in the Bay Shore Stakes, part of the Wood Memorial Day card on Saturday at Aqueduct.

Giving a horse cough medicine certainly seems fairly innocuous and the story might be a little overblown. But if proved true by the New York Racing Stewards, shame on Mullins for being stupid enough to walk into a barn under surveillance with a syringe.

The Thoroughbred Times story was clear to point out that I Want Revenge, the likely Kentucky Derby favorite after winning the Wood Memorial, was not administered any medication on race day so he would appear to be in the clear.

The simple fact is that the last thing Thoroughbred Racing needs is another black eye. Racing has had a knack over the last few years to "take one step forward and then two steps back."

Mullins may have simply tried to give Gato Go Win cough medicine if he came down with an ailment. Let's hope that's the case.

The Derby is less than a month away and it's the one time of year where non-racing fans pay attention to the sport and a chance to garner more fans which the sport desperately needs. The last thing you want in the days and weeks leading up to the "Run for the Roses" are more and more questions about illegal medication and the perception that most trainers in the game cheat to win.

Those questions hounded Richard Dutrow, Jr. through the Triple Crown run of Big Brown last year as he's had a checkered reputation over the years. Now it appears that Mullins maybe in the media bulls eye if the allegations prove true.

Mullins, who has been busted in the past for equine drug positives needs to come out and tackle the issue head on. Anything short of that will leave a potential black cloud hanging over one of the greatest sporting events in the world.

(photo courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire)

Sunday Follow-up

The racing world is abuzz about I Want Revenge's win in Saturday's Wood Memorial. The visually impressive performance will make him the Kentucky Derby favorite pending a blowout by someone in next week's Toyota Blue Grass at Keeneland or the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn.

I Want Revenge (shown on far right) will get plenty of time to adjust to life under the Twin Spires as he leaves for Churchill Downs on Monday. Not that spending nearly a month training at Churchill Downs guarantees a victory but trainer Jeff Mullins is doing the right thing.

I Want Revenge has already made two round trips from Los Angeles to New York so limiting his travel is a smart move for a young horse. Be curious how many days trainer Jeff Mullins will spend in Louisville but he is not a Derby rookie.

"He came out of the race real well," Mullins said from Aqueduct this mornning. "We had him out this morning, went over him from head to toe and everything looks good."

For those who love numbers (like me), the Daily Racing Form has their trademarked Beyer Speed Figures. There haven't been many 3-year-olds on the Road the Derby with Beyer Figures over 100.

I Want Revenge ran a 113 in the Gotham last month so I wondered if he could top that lofty figure. Meanwhile, Pioneerof the Nile, who won Saturday's Santa Anita Derby, had never broken 100 in any race. After going to drf.com, here are the Beyer numbers for yesterday.

I Want Revenge's - 103
Pioneerof the Nile - 96

That's good news for both horses. The 96 for Pioneerof the Nile is his career best and I Want Revenge dropped 10 points from his Gotham victory but that should bode well for him in the Derby.

The interesting part to keep in mind is that Pioneerof the Nile and I Want Revenge went head-to-head twice in California and Pioneerof the Nile won both matchups. Keep in mind the racetracks in California are the artificial kind while Aqueduct and Churchill Downs have the
"traditional dirt."

When Pioneerof the Nile starts in the Derby, it will be his first start on "traditional dirt." That will bear close watching.

The mystery race of Saturday was Musket Man in the Illinois Derby. He is getting hot at the right time and quietly has posted an impressive career record of five wins in six starts. Win or lose in the Kentucky Derby, their owners got a bargain when they bought the colt at auction at Keeneland for just $17,000.

(Photo Courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire)

Super Impressive Win For I Want Revenge

Every once in a while at the track, you see a performance that takes your breath away and leaves you shaking your head saying to yourself "how did he do that?" Saturday at Aqueduct, I saw one of those incredible feats in horse racing.

I Want Revenge, the big favorite in the Wood Memorial, gave the field a nice head start as the race began but overcame the adversity at the starting gate (on the far right) and through a rough stretch run to win the $750,000 Kentucky Derby prep race in New York.

Most times when a horse is "left at the gate", the horse gets discouraged and doesn't run or the horse make his or her run and then tires. I Want Revenge's trainer, Jeff Mullins, summed it up perfectly.

"When he missed the break, I was already heading back to the barn at that point....I thought we were done. I didn't know we had a chance."

When you see the final margin of victory of 1 1/2 lengths and the final time of 1:49.49, it doesn't seem very impressive. But, much like a box score of a basketball game when a player doesn't score a lot of points but did all the intangibles to help the team win, jockey Joe Talamo and I Want Revenge did what they had to do to win and then some.

After falling behind at the start, Talamo guided I Want To Revenge along the inside and started to make up ground slowly and steadily. Then, as the field began its turn for home, I Want Revenge made his way to fifth and then had to wait for the wall of horses in front of him to clear. Once the hole opened, Talamo bulled his way through and took the lead just before the finish line.

An impressive win to be sure.

"He had every trouble you could have in a race and still overcome it," Mullins said. "It tells me he's a pretty nice horse. That's as good as it gets right there. We've got one more show to go and if he can win that one, he's a pretty special animal."

Also smiling after the race were owners David Lanzman and IEAH Stables. IEAH just purchased 50% of the horse earlier in the week and must have had a little "deja vu." IEAH was one of the owners of 2008 Kentucky Derby winner Big Brown when the colt overcame starting in the 20th position in the gate to post one of the most impressive wins in the Derby.

Oh by the way, in case you care, the complete order of finish for the Wood was: I Want Revenge, West Side Bernie, Just a Conicidence, Atomic Rain, Imperial Council, Cellar Dweller, Lord Justice and Lime Rickey.

The biggest disappointment of the day was Imperial Council's fifth place finish. Although the horse flipped over in the paddock before the race, trainer Shug McGaughey made no excuses and said "There's no chance he's going to the Kentucky Derby."

Looking at the overall Kentucky Derby picture, the list of legitimate contenders is shrinking rapidly. Pioneerof the Nile won the Santa Anita Derby but was not impressive. Musket Man captured the Illinois Derby but beat a very, very weak field.

This day belonged to I Want Revenge and he will be your Kentucky Derby favorite and my choice for the "Run for the Roses."

(photo courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire)