The talk and the Triple Crown is just about over and the Belmont Stakes is at hand.
Here is a look at the field of 10 (and their record):
1) Chocolate Candy (10-4-2-1) - Been off since running fifth in the Kentucky Derby. Has the ability to be close to the lead which will be a big benefit with the speed holding at Belmont today. He's been training in NY for five weeks so he should be acclimated to the Belmont surface. Don't like the fact that he's just 8-1 to but if he likes "traditional dirt", he will be in the thick of it.
2) Dunkirk (4-2-1-0) - After disappointing (11th place) as the second choice in the Kentucky Derby, trainer Todd Pletcher appears to have the regally bred colt ready for this race. Jockey John Velazquez, Pletcher's regular rider, will ride him for the first time. Today he will look to validate his $3.7 million public auction price. Very dangerous here.
3) Mr. Hot Stuff (8-1-0-3) - The full brother to Colonel John has been a disappointment this year. He was 15th in the Derby in his first start on "real dirt" and will need a quick pace in front of his if he has any chance. The big plus for him is that he gets the services of Edgar Prado. Not likely to win here.
4) Summer Bird (4-1-0-1) - The "buzz horse" of Belmont Week is another horse who will be flying late. He also will need a quick pace in front of him but he has lots of talent and showed when he was third in the Arkansas Derby. He gets blinkers on for the first time which may move him closer to the lead and gets a big rider switch from Chris Rosier to Hall of Famer Kent Desormeaux. If he's closer early in the race, he has a big shot.
5) Luv Gov (11-1-3-1) - A horse the probably doesn't belong in the Belmont. Just one win and never beaten these kind of horses. Pass.
6) Charitable Man (4-3-0-0) - The value of the Belmont, the colt has never lost in three starts on "real dirt" and is 2-for-2 at Belmont Park. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin won this race in 2006 with Jazil and is very, very dangerous here.
7) Mine That Bird (10-5-2-0) - What more can you say about this colt? The Derby winner and Preakness runner-up has become such a great story continues to get better with each start. Jockey Calvin Borel is looking for racing immortality trying to win the Triple Crown on two different horses in the same year. The key will be is where Borel places the horse early in the race. He can't be to far back or to close. I would love to see him win and has a great shot to give Borel a "Calvin Crown."
8) Flying Private (12-1-4-0) - Trainer D. Wayne Lukas has won four Belmonts and turned this colt around after running last in the Derby. Was a troubled fourth in the Preakness but will need to improve more to be a factor here. Watch later in the year.
9) Miner's Escape (7-2-0-0) - Trainer Nick Zito has become the "Crown Killer" after stopping two Triple Crowns in the past five years. This horse's best shot will be to repeat what stablemate D'Tara did last year. Go to the front and steal the race. If he doesn't do that, he has no shot. But counting out Zito is tough in the Belmont is tough.
10) Brave Victory (9-2-2-1) - Zito's other horse in the Belmont will need a good trip to have any shot. Since he's on the outside, he will need to stay out of trouble and the best chance may be to drop back, like he did when he finished third to Charitable Man last month.
I will be rooting for Mine That Bird as it would be a great story in sports. Charitable Man is the best value of the race since he's 5-1.
Picks:
7) Mine That Bird
2) Dunkirk
6) Charitable Man
1) Chocolate Candy
Showing posts with label Chocolate Candy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Chocolate Candy. Show all posts
Saturday, June 6, 2009
Belmont Update - 3:45 p.m.
The first big upset of the day of Belmont day happened in the 7th race when champion female turfer Forever Together was upset by Diamondrella in the Just a Game.
The next race on the card, The Woody Stephens, will showcase some of the up and coming 3-year-olds that were not ready or good enough to make the Triple Crown. Horses to watch in the race include Munnings, who cost $1.7 million at auction two years ago, This Ones for Phil, trained by Rick Dutrow who is best known for Big Brown's Triple Crown run of last year, and the undefeated (3-for-3) Hull.
As for the Belmont odds, the only change is Chocolate Candy drifting up to 7-1.
Mine That Bird is still even money, Charitable Man is 5-1 and Dunkirk 6-1.
The big mystery is how Luv Gov is 20-1. A horse who is 1-for-11 lifetime was a well beaten eight in the Preakness should be at least 50-1.
The next race on the card, The Woody Stephens, will showcase some of the up and coming 3-year-olds that were not ready or good enough to make the Triple Crown. Horses to watch in the race include Munnings, who cost $1.7 million at auction two years ago, This Ones for Phil, trained by Rick Dutrow who is best known for Big Brown's Triple Crown run of last year, and the undefeated (3-for-3) Hull.
As for the Belmont odds, the only change is Chocolate Candy drifting up to 7-1.
Mine That Bird is still even money, Charitable Man is 5-1 and Dunkirk 6-1.
The big mystery is how Luv Gov is 20-1. A horse who is 1-for-11 lifetime was a well beaten eight in the Preakness should be at least 50-1.
Belmont Update - 3 p.m.
With a 3 1/2 hours to go before the
The son of 2004
Second choice is Charitable Man - 5-1. I thought he might be a shorter price since he has never lost at
A pair of horses are tied for third choice at 6-1;
The interesting next one on the list is Summer Bird. He is 11-1 and is become the “buzz horse” of Belmont Week. Before you get sold on him, remember he has only won one race in his career and is going to be far back early.
Saturday, May 2, 2009
Derby Selections
Kentucky Derby Picks -
Ok...now that the talk is over, it's time to pick a winner.
Unfortunately, my initial selection, I Want Revenge came up with a injury this morning and was scratched.
Now, after spending hours looking over all the contenders again, here is who I settled on in finish order:
6) Friesan Fire - With the track still wet and the morning-line favorite out, the race sets up perfectly for him. He should be just off the front end early on, make his move near the final turn and hold off a host of fast closing horses. The win would give trainer Larry Jones his first Derby victory.
15) Dunkirk - Perhaps the most talented horse in the field will benefit from an expected fast pace early on. The colt, was sold for $3.7 million dollars at public auction, will be closing late and if he avoids trouble, will be very tough. Only question will be how he handles the wet track.
16) Pioneerof the Nile - Trainer Bob Baffert has won three Kentucky Derby's and this colt is on a roll after winning four straight. The big question about him is will he handle traditional dirt. He's only run on "artificial dirt" but his parents both loved running at Churchill Downs.
11) Chocolate Candy - Another horse who ran exclusively on "artificial dirt" has shown a lot of promise this year and was second to Pioneerof the Nile in his last start. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, nicknamed the "King of Northern California", will have his horse in mid-pack
Here's one last look at the Kentucky Derby contenders as we countdown to the "Run for the Roses"
3) Mr. Hot Stuff - The little brother of Colonel John will be another horse coming "from the clounds" down the stretch. Will be a huge price.
Others that have question marks but not picking: 2) Musket Man; 5) Hold Me Back; 7) Papa Clem; 12) General Quarters; 19) Desert Party
Ok...now that the talk is over, it's time to pick a winner.
Unfortunately, my initial selection, I Want Revenge came up with a injury this morning and was scratched.
Now, after spending hours looking over all the contenders again, here is who I settled on in finish order:
6) Friesan Fire - With the track still wet and the morning-line favorite out, the race sets up perfectly for him. He should be just off the front end early on, make his move near the final turn and hold off a host of fast closing horses. The win would give trainer Larry Jones his first Derby victory.
15) Dunkirk - Perhaps the most talented horse in the field will benefit from an expected fast pace early on. The colt, was sold for $3.7 million dollars at public auction, will be closing late and if he avoids trouble, will be very tough. Only question will be how he handles the wet track.
16) Pioneerof the Nile - Trainer Bob Baffert has won three Kentucky Derby's and this colt is on a roll after winning four straight. The big question about him is will he handle traditional dirt. He's only run on "artificial dirt" but his parents both loved running at Churchill Downs.
11) Chocolate Candy - Another horse who ran exclusively on "artificial dirt" has shown a lot of promise this year and was second to Pioneerof the Nile in his last start. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, nicknamed the "King of Northern California", will have his horse in mid-pack
Here's one last look at the Kentucky Derby contenders as we countdown to the "Run for the Roses"
3) Mr. Hot Stuff - The little brother of Colonel John will be another horse coming "from the clounds" down the stretch. Will be a huge price.
Others that have question marks but not picking: 2) Musket Man; 5) Hold Me Back; 7) Papa Clem; 12) General Quarters; 19) Desert Party
Friday, May 1, 2009
Derby Odds/Upset City
With the forecast for no less than an 70% chance of rain for tomorrow, the betting public have taken notice and shifted the favoritism away from I Want Revenge.
Friesan Fire is currently the early 4-1 favorite. His last race was a win on a sloppy track in Louisiana and has been a horse that got a lot of attention this week.
I Want Revenge now stands at 5-1 while a trio of horses are 8-1, Chocolate Candy, Dunkirk and Pioneerof the Nile. General Quarters, the Blue Grass winner, is 9-1. Hold Me Back is 10-1 while Arkansas Derby winner Papa Clem is 14-1.
----
With the scratch of Zenyatta from the Louisville Distaff, One Caroline, another unbeaten filly, looked to be in prime position to keep his perfect record in tact. After a protracted stretch duel, One Caroline gave in late to Miss Isella at odds of 8-1.
So what looked to be a matchup of two undefeated filly, fizzled out in an upset win. Oh well. Lots of good races to come.
Friesan Fire is currently the early 4-1 favorite. His last race was a win on a sloppy track in Louisiana and has been a horse that got a lot of attention this week.
I Want Revenge now stands at 5-1 while a trio of horses are 8-1, Chocolate Candy, Dunkirk and Pioneerof the Nile. General Quarters, the Blue Grass winner, is 9-1. Hold Me Back is 10-1 while Arkansas Derby winner Papa Clem is 14-1.
----
With the scratch of Zenyatta from the Louisville Distaff, One Caroline, another unbeaten filly, looked to be in prime position to keep his perfect record in tact. After a protracted stretch duel, One Caroline gave in late to Miss Isella at odds of 8-1.
So what looked to be a matchup of two undefeated filly, fizzled out in an upset win. Oh well. Lots of good races to come.
Monday, April 27, 2009
Quality Road OUT & Other Notes
The inevitable finally happened on Monday morning as Quality Road was officially taken out of the consideration for the Kentucky Derby.
Trainer Jimmy Jerkens did the right thing and lived up to his word by ending his Derby dream. The horse was supposed to work in New York and board a plane for Louisville on Tuesday but the horse was a little sore this morning and that was the final nail in his Derby coffin.
Jerkens indicated that the Preakness and Belmont are still possible. The Preakness might a great race for him as it is a little shorter than the Derby and horses with tactical speed seem to thrive in the Preakness.
Other Monday headlines included an extremely busy morning with final workouts with one horse blazing down the stretch.
Friesan Fire - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) :57.80 (Fastest of 26 horses)
The remarkable thing about this workout is that was about a second and a half faster than everyone else. At first blush, I am concerned that this fast work might take something out of the horse. But two things there are in Friesan Fire's favor: 1) He hasn't run since March 14 so a fast workout is something he probably needed. 2) Hard Spun had a similarly fast workout and he seemed just fine come Derby Day - he ran 2nd.
Other Workouts (trainer):
Advice (Todd Pletcher) - 4 furlongs (1/2 mile) 47.20 (3rd of 26 horses)
Chocolate Candy (Jerry Hollendorfer) - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) :59.20 (2nd of 26 horses)
Flying Private (D. Wayne Lukas) - 4 furlongs (1/2 mile) 47.40 (4th of 26 horses)
Join in the Dance (Todd Pletcher) - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) 1:00.20 (5th of 26 horses)
Mine That Bird (Bennie Woolley) - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) 1:02 (19th of 26 horses)
Pioneerof the Nile (Bob Baffert) - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) 1:01 (11th of 26 horses)
Take the Points (Todd Pletcher) - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) 1:00.20 (5th of 26 horses)
Win Willy (McLean Robertson) - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) 1:02.40 (20th of 26 horses)
Only one major horse left to work - Wood Memorial winner I Want Revenge.
Trainer Jimmy Jerkens did the right thing and lived up to his word by ending his Derby dream. The horse was supposed to work in New York and board a plane for Louisville on Tuesday but the horse was a little sore this morning and that was the final nail in his Derby coffin.
Jerkens indicated that the Preakness and Belmont are still possible. The Preakness might a great race for him as it is a little shorter than the Derby and horses with tactical speed seem to thrive in the Preakness.
Other Monday headlines included an extremely busy morning with final workouts with one horse blazing down the stretch.
Friesan Fire - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) :57.80 (Fastest of 26 horses)
The remarkable thing about this workout is that was about a second and a half faster than everyone else. At first blush, I am concerned that this fast work might take something out of the horse. But two things there are in Friesan Fire's favor: 1) He hasn't run since March 14 so a fast workout is something he probably needed. 2) Hard Spun had a similarly fast workout and he seemed just fine come Derby Day - he ran 2nd.
Other Workouts (trainer):
Advice (Todd Pletcher) - 4 furlongs (1/2 mile) 47.20 (3rd of 26 horses)
Chocolate Candy (Jerry Hollendorfer) - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) :59.20 (2nd of 26 horses)
Flying Private (D. Wayne Lukas) - 4 furlongs (1/2 mile) 47.40 (4th of 26 horses)
Join in the Dance (Todd Pletcher) - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) 1:00.20 (5th of 26 horses)
Mine That Bird (Bennie Woolley) - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) 1:02 (19th of 26 horses)
Pioneerof the Nile (Bob Baffert) - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) 1:01 (11th of 26 horses)
Take the Points (Todd Pletcher) - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) 1:00.20 (5th of 26 horses)
Win Willy (McLean Robertson) - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) 1:02.40 (20th of 26 horses)
Only one major horse left to work - Wood Memorial winner I Want Revenge.
Monday, April 20, 2009
What You Might Have Missed Monday....
On a rainy day in Louisville, there wasn't a lot of Kentucky Derby news but there were a few highlights.
The field of horses wanting to run in the Derby shrunk to 23 but for those in the Top 20, now all but one is "definite."
The only horse that is on the fence is Advice, the Todd Pletcher-trained winner of Saturday's Coolmore Lexington at Keeneland. It would be surprising if the horse didn't run but a two week turn around is a little short. Pletcher pulled Take the Points from Derby consideration and is now likely to run in the Lone Star Derby.
The Derby jockey shuffle continued as Robby Albarado took the mount on the D. Wayne Lukas trained Flying Private.
Calvin Borel, who captured the 2007 Derby aboard Street Sense, picked up Mine That Bird.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Square Eddie is without a jockey after Edgar Prado chose Dunkirk and Rafael Bejarano stayed with Arkansas Derby winner Papa Clem. The best available riders that trainer Doug O'Neill could chose are: Alex Solis, Tyler Baze, David Flores and Javier Castellano. (My prediction - Baze).
Alan Garcia and Ramon Dominguez are slated to ride the Godolphin-owned duo of Desert Party and Regal Ransom. What hasn't been decided is which jockey will ride which horse. Frankie Dettori, who rode Desert Party in Dubai is not coming over for the Derby. Not a big vote of confidence.
As many as six Derby contenders are slated to work on Tuesday:
Pioneerof the Nile, I Want Revenge, Chocolate Candy, Win Willy, Mine That Bird and Atomic Rain.
The field of horses wanting to run in the Derby shrunk to 23 but for those in the Top 20, now all but one is "definite."
The only horse that is on the fence is Advice, the Todd Pletcher-trained winner of Saturday's Coolmore Lexington at Keeneland. It would be surprising if the horse didn't run but a two week turn around is a little short. Pletcher pulled Take the Points from Derby consideration and is now likely to run in the Lone Star Derby.
The Derby jockey shuffle continued as Robby Albarado took the mount on the D. Wayne Lukas trained Flying Private.
Calvin Borel, who captured the 2007 Derby aboard Street Sense, picked up Mine That Bird.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Square Eddie is without a jockey after Edgar Prado chose Dunkirk and Rafael Bejarano stayed with Arkansas Derby winner Papa Clem. The best available riders that trainer Doug O'Neill could chose are: Alex Solis, Tyler Baze, David Flores and Javier Castellano. (My prediction - Baze).
Alan Garcia and Ramon Dominguez are slated to ride the Godolphin-owned duo of Desert Party and Regal Ransom. What hasn't been decided is which jockey will ride which horse. Frankie Dettori, who rode Desert Party in Dubai is not coming over for the Derby. Not a big vote of confidence.
As many as six Derby contenders are slated to work on Tuesday:
Pioneerof the Nile, I Want Revenge, Chocolate Candy, Win Willy, Mine That Bird and Atomic Rain.
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