Travers Day Stars - What's Next?

Here's a quick look at the top horses from Travers Day and where they might make their next start:

Summer Bird - Trainer Tim Ice said that the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont on Oct. 3 makes the most sense as it fits well time wise. It leaves about a month before the Breeders' Cup and he's not concerned about getting a race over the artifical dirt of Santa Anita before the BC. The only races on the radar is the Louisiana Super Derby (Sept. 19) and the Goodwood (Oct. 10). Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird is expected to run in the Goodwood.

Hold Me Back - The Travers runner-up has no specific next race but trainer Bill Mott said he is definitely targeting the Breeders' Cup.

Quality Road - A rematch with Summer Bird could be in store as trainer Todd Pletcher indicated that the beaten favorite in the Travers could move on to the JC Gold Cup.

Kensei - Trainer Steve Asmussen gave no indication where the Jim Dandy winner is running next. He said they will "take a step back, regroup and go from there."

Capt. Candyman Can - The winner of the King's Bishop is not specifically targetting the Breeders' Cup Sprint but trainer Ian Wilkes has not made a decision where he goes next.

Munnings - We now know that the King's Bishop beaten favorite is not moving on the BC Sprint. Pletcher wants to avoid the artificial dirt of Santa Anita. He'll target the Vosburgh (Oct. 3) and then the Cigar Mile (Nov. 28).

Salve Germania - The impressive winner of the Ballston Spa has been moved to Pletcher's barn but no timetable has been set for her next start. The Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf is a logical target.

Derby Odds/Upset City

With the forecast for no less than an 70% chance of rain for tomorrow, the betting public have taken notice and shifted the favoritism away from I Want Revenge.

Friesan Fire is currently the early 4-1 favorite. His last race was a win on a sloppy track in Louisiana and has been a horse that got a lot of attention this week.

I Want Revenge now stands at 5-1 while a trio of horses are 8-1, Chocolate Candy, Dunkirk and Pioneerof the Nile. General Quarters, the Blue Grass winner, is 9-1. Hold Me Back is 10-1 while Arkansas Derby winner Papa Clem is 14-1.

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With the scratch of Zenyatta from the Louisville Distaff, One Caroline, another unbeaten filly, looked to be in prime position to keep his perfect record in tact. After a protracted stretch duel, One Caroline gave in late to Miss Isella at odds of 8-1.

So what looked to be a matchup of two undefeated filly, fizzled out in an upset win. Oh well. Lots of good races to come.

Analyzing the Top Contenders

With a little over two weeks before the 135th Kentucky Derby, I thought I would take a quick look at some of the top contenders are expected to run Churchill Downs.

And, of course, just when you think you've got the field of 20 horses for the Derby all figured out, something comes out of nowhere to change it.

Joining the Derby fray on Thursday was Flat Out who was 6th in the Arkansas Derby but currently is 28th on the Graded Stakes Earnings list. Bailing on the Derby was Mafaaz, the European based horse that flopped in the Toyota Blue Grass on Saturday. The owners also moved the horse to the barn of NY-based trainer Kiaran McLaughlin so perhaps a run in the Belmont Stakes?

Now, here's a look in earnings order (as well as their record on "conventional" dirt) at the leading contenders for the "Run for the Roses":

(record - starts-wins-second-third)
Regal Ransom (Overall Record 5-2-2-0, "Real Dirt" record 1-1-0-0) -
One of two Godolphin owned horses in the Derby. The tough part for them is they run against suspect competition in Dubai and they've never come close to winning the Derby. Don't think this one will be the one to change that.

Pioneerof the Nile (Overall Record 8-5-0-1, "Real Dirt" record 0-0-0-0) -
The best from California and the horses from the West Coast have been doing great when they've come East (see I Want Revenge and Papa Clem.) Won four straight since moving to trainer Bob Baffert in the winter. Never run on "conventional" dirt but his parents both ran well at Churchill Downs. A major contender and trained by a guy who has won three Derbys. Not bad.

Square Eddie (Overall Record 7-2-3-1, "Real Dirt" record 0-0-0-0) -
Former European took the world by storm when he won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in October but was injured in January and presumed out of the Derby. Low and behold, he's back and running this weekend at Keeneland. Could be a lot to ask him to win the Derby with just one race in the last 3 1/2 months.

I Want Revenge (Overall Record 8-3-1-4, "Real Dirt" record 2-2-0-0) -
The "hot" horse on the Derby trail. His two East Coast races have been super impressive and has taken a liking to life away from the artificial dirt. If his star crossed trainer, Jeff Mullins, can stay out of trouble (which has been difficult since winning the Gotham), he is the horse to beat.

Papa Clem (Overall Record 6-2-2-0, "Real Dirt" record 2-1-1-0) -
Yet another West Coast who become a major contender. He won the Arkansas Derby last weekend and was narrowly beaten by Pioneerof the Nile in February. Big problem though is not sure he wants to go the Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles.

Desert Party (Overall Record 6-4-1-0, "Real Dirt" record 2-1-0-0) -
The best of the Middle East horses was beaten by stablemate Regal Ransom last time. The $2.1 million auction purchase has loads of talent and is their owners' best chance to win the Derby in years but the Middle East to US experiment has been a failure to date. Don't think he wins but maybe somewhere in the Top 5.

Quality Road (Overall Record 4-3-1-0, "Real Dirt" Record 4-3-1-0) -
RED FLAG WARNING - Was a major contender after winning the Florida Derby last month but a quarter crack was found in his foot last week. The crack usually is painful but had a nice workout this week in New York. Watch this very carefully.

General Quarters (Overall Record 11-3-3-1, "Real Dirt" Record 7-2-2-1)
By far the best story of the Kentucky Derby. Owned and trained by a 75-year-old former high school principal with just one horse in his stable, the gray colt (right) has won two of his last three including the Blue Grass Stakes. Can he overcome the curse of winning the Blue Grass? Only two horses in the last 36 years have won both (Strike the Gold, 1991 & Spectacular Bid. 1979).

Friesan Fire (Overall Record 7-4-1-1, "Real Dirt" Record 7-4-1-1)
On paper, he looks like one of the best horses in the race but when you a look a little closer, there are a couple of concerns. Chief among them is that he has not run since March 14 and that gives him seven weeks between starts. No horse has won the Derby with that much time between races since Needles in 1956. The other concern is that his best race came on a wet track. Watch how he trains the next two weeks. (This is trainer Larry Jones only horse left after Old Fashioned retired this week.)

Musket Man (Overall Record 6-5-0-1, "Real Dirt" Record 6-5-0-1)
He might be the most underrated horse in the field considering his lofty record. He beat a poor field in the Illinois Derby but he defeated General Quarters in the Tampa Bay Derby last month. The big concern is his bloodlines as there doesn't appear to be stamina in his family.

Hold Me Back (Overall Record 5-3-0-1, "Real Dirt" Record 1-0-0-0)
Another horse with a very nice record but appears to be an "artificial" dirt specialist. His only real dirt race was a distance fifth place finish last November. He has the benefit of trainer Bill Mott, one of the all-time best, but he needs to prove he can duplicate his artificial dirt form on the Churchill Downs surface.

West Side Bernie (Overall Record 7-2-2-1, "Real Dirt" Record 4-1-2-1)
A hard trying horse that does not have a marquee win but always seems to give an honest effort each time. Another big plus for him is that he has never run a race shorter than 1 mile and 70 yards which could prove to be beneficial when running 1 1/4 miles in the Derby. Could be a nice longshot to run second or third.

Chocolate Candy (Overall Record 9-4-2-1, "Real Dirt" Record 0-0-0-0)
WISE GUY ALERT - After knocking off the best 3-year-olds in Northern California, the horse, owned by Sid & Jenny Craig, ran a close second to Pioneerof the Nile in early April. He is definitely one to watch but will probably be a "wise guy" horse because of good runner-up finish last time. As a result, he might over bet.

Dunkirk (Overall Record 3-2-1-0, "Real Dirt" Record 3-2-1-0)
WISE GUY ALERT - The most expensive and perhaps most talented horse in the field. His regal breeding (his mom, Secret Status, won the Kentucky Oaks) fetched $3.7 million at public auction and could be the next big star in racing. But, he only has three lifetime starts and only one horse in Derby history has won the "Run for the Roses" with just three outings (Regret, 1915). Curlin tried it a couple of years ago and ran third. Be careful if you bet him.

All photos courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire

One Trick Pony

Horse racing was searching for a good and heartwarming story after Jeff Mullins, who trains likely Kentucky Derby favorite I Want Revenge, was caught by New York racing officials giving a horse cough medicine. The search ended in Lexington as a man with just one horse, General Quarters, in his barn captured the $750,000 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland.

Tom McCarthy, a 75-year-old retired high school principal, acquired General Quarters for just $20,000 out of race at Churchill Downs last May. After a very ordinary 2008, the gray colt gave his owner/trainer the ultimate lottery ticket in 2009 - winning two of four starts including two major Kentucky Derby prep races.

And, oh by the way, the horse was earned $641,375 in his career. Not bad.

The racing world was introduced earlier this year to McCarthy when he won the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa on Valentine's Day. Now McCarthy and his one horse will take center stage in Louisville as one of the major contenders for the Run for the Roses.

The Blue Grass served another important purpose - eliminating some of the Derby pretenders. Looks like only three horses will move on to Louisville: General Quarters, Hold Me Back and Terrain. The big question mark is European import Mafaaz. He ran 8th but the owner and trainer were non-committal as to his next race. (Mafaaz has a guaranteed spot in the Derby as he won the Kentucky Derby Challenge Stakes in England last month.)

The Arkansas Derby proved to be a weak race as Old Fashioned, once on top of many Derby contender lists, couldn't hold off Papa Clem. The loss marked the second straight defeat for Old Fashioned after being rattling off four straights wins to begin his career.

The interesting side note to Papa Clem beat I Want Revenge in February at Santa Anita. Papa Clem is the second high profile Southern California based horse to make a successful transition from the artificial "pro ride" surface to conventional dirt.

Only one more prep race to go - The Coolmore Lexington next Saturday at Keeneland. A full field is expected headed by Derby contender Square Eddie.

Many Questions but any answers?

As the "Road to the Kentucky Derby" winds down, we have a solid group of five or six favorites led by Wood Memorial winner I Want Revenge. But will today's two major prep races, the Toyota Blue Grass and the Arkansas Derby help clear up the rest of potential field for the Derby?

The Blue Grass has always been good barometer of who is going to win the Kentucky Derby. The race has produced 23 winners but the caveat is that only two winners of the Blue Grass in the past 37 years have gone on to win the "Run for the Roses." It is important to note that Street Sense (2nd, 2007) and Thunder Gulch (1995, 4th) have gone on to the win Derby despite not winning the Blue Grass in the last 14 years.

Fast forward to this afternoon and is there a Derby winner amongst the field of 11? Hold Me Back is the legitimate early favorite as he has won three of four starts and never lost on the "artificial" dirt known as Polytrack. Keeneland has that same type of surface. But even if Hold Me Back wins today, does that make him a legitimate contender for the Derby?

Then, what do you with the horses who don't win the Blue Grass? A lot of them have an built-in excuse if they don't like the Polytrack.

In the Arkansas Derby, trainer Larry Jones tries to get Old Fashioned back into the winners' circle after his defeat at the hands of 56-1 longshot Win Willy. If Old Fashioned wins, then he jumps back into the uppper echelon of Derby contenders.

Jumping back into the Derby picture yesterday was Square Eddie. He was dismissed as a candidate for the Derby in January when he was injured but is expected to return to the races next Saturday at Keeneland in the Lexington Stakes, the final Derby prep.

So even though last week, it looked like we settled a solid top five or six horses for the Derby, today can muddy the waters quite a bit.