Many Questions but any answers?

As the "Road to the Kentucky Derby" winds down, we have a solid group of five or six favorites led by Wood Memorial winner I Want Revenge. But will today's two major prep races, the Toyota Blue Grass and the Arkansas Derby help clear up the rest of potential field for the Derby?

The Blue Grass has always been good barometer of who is going to win the Kentucky Derby. The race has produced 23 winners but the caveat is that only two winners of the Blue Grass in the past 37 years have gone on to win the "Run for the Roses." It is important to note that Street Sense (2nd, 2007) and Thunder Gulch (1995, 4th) have gone on to the win Derby despite not winning the Blue Grass in the last 14 years.

Fast forward to this afternoon and is there a Derby winner amongst the field of 11? Hold Me Back is the legitimate early favorite as he has won three of four starts and never lost on the "artificial" dirt known as Polytrack. Keeneland has that same type of surface. But even if Hold Me Back wins today, does that make him a legitimate contender for the Derby?

Then, what do you with the horses who don't win the Blue Grass? A lot of them have an built-in excuse if they don't like the Polytrack.

In the Arkansas Derby, trainer Larry Jones tries to get Old Fashioned back into the winners' circle after his defeat at the hands of 56-1 longshot Win Willy. If Old Fashioned wins, then he jumps back into the uppper echelon of Derby contenders.

Jumping back into the Derby picture yesterday was Square Eddie. He was dismissed as a candidate for the Derby in January when he was injured but is expected to return to the races next Saturday at Keeneland in the Lexington Stakes, the final Derby prep.

So even though last week, it looked like we settled a solid top five or six horses for the Derby, today can muddy the waters quite a bit.

Bluegrass Bound

Heading out the door to attend one of the greatest days in racing...The Toyota Blue Grass.

By no means does it compare to the Breeders' Cup, Kentucky Oaks or Derby but to see a racetrack full of people is a wonderful sight. When you walk through the gates at Keeenland, especially on a day like today, it's like going back in time. People dressed well, a large crowd and the people in Kentucky really appreciate horse racing for more than just the gambling aspect.

More from Keeneland shortly.

Friday Night

On the eve of the one of the biggest pre-Derby racing days, here's some things to look forward to tomorrow.

On my radio show (The Kentucky Winner's Circle with E.J. Clark and Molly Rosen), we will have Daily Racing Form's David Grening to talk about the Road to the Kentucky Derby and a close look at the horses running in the Wood Memorial in New York. If you are in Louisville, the show is this and every Saturday from 11:00 a.m. - 12 Noon and WKJK- AM (1080). Tune in.

All horses are a go for the big three races (Wood Memorial, Illinois Derby and Santa Anita Derby). The horses to watch in those races.

Wood Memorial - I Want Revenge and Imperial Council. For those betting on the race, don't take a very short price on I Want Revenge. He may well "bounce" after his dazzling win last month in the Gotham Stakes and Imperial Council needs the victory to assure himself a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate.

Illinois Derby - The whole field. Although Musket Man won the Tampa Derby last month, this group of 11 horses is very evenly matched and is not a very strong field. An upset here is likely and be wary of any horse who wins this race.

Santa Anita Derby - Pioneerof the Nile and The Pamplemousse. The two West Coast heavyweights have yet to meet head-to-head but they both have swept all the major 3-year-old races in Southern California. This should be a great race and a lot of people have knocked these horses in part because their times haven't been that fast and they are running on an "artificial surface" in SoCal .They should be taken seriously for the Derby if they live up to their billing Saturday.

And for those who following the road to the Kentucky Oaks, the sister race to the Derby, two of the big favorites are running this weekend.

Stardom Bound, the reigning 2-year-old champion, is the big favorite in Saturday's Ashland Stakes at Keeneland. Meanwhile, the white hot Rachel Alexandra scared off a lot her rivals as she only faces four others in the Apple Blossom at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas on Sunday. Not worth betting those races but should be fun to watch.

I will be at Aqueduct tomorrow and will be writing updates throughout the day.

Good night and "May the Horse Be With You."

Thursday Night - Derby Future Wager

All is relatively quiet in the racing world. But since the final Kentucky Derby Future Wager is open, let's take a quick look at that.

The wager is open until Sunday night and you can be sure the odds will swing after Saturday's big races.

As of Thursday night, Quality Road is the 5-1 favorite. He's been running great but stay away if the odds remain close to that. You might be able to do better on Derby Day.

The horses to watch closely in the future wager are Pioneerof the Nile (currently 22-1), Imperial Council (currently 19-1) and I Want Revenge (currently 11-1).

A few horses that I would stay away from are the Dubai based colts (Regal Ransom and Desert Party) as well as Mafaaz, the British horse who run in the Toyota Blue Grass next week. Foreign horses notoriously have not run well in the Kentucky Derby so betting the horse now isn't worth the risk.

Good night and "May the horse be with you."