Preakness Day, 5 p.m.

The steamy weather continues at Pimlico and there are some darker clouds off to the West. There is no question it will rain here at Pimlico but it may well happen after the running of the Preakness.

As for the odds, they're like the weather outside, stagnant.

And there probably won't be any huge moves in the odds between now and post time for the race, which should be around 6:15 p.m.

The contenders:
Rachel Alexandra - 2-1
Mine That Bird - 6-1
Pioneerof the Nile - 6-1
Musket Man - 9-1 (Had the huge surge down from 14 to 9 over an hour ago)
Friesan Fire - 9-1
Big Drama - 10-1 (Daily Racing Form reported he scraped his knee this AM. Trainer said it was "minor as could be.")
Papa Clem - 14-1

Borderliners:
Terrain - 14-1
General Quarters - 15-1
Take The Points - 16-1

No Shot-ers:
Luv Gov - 22-1
Flying Private - 25-1
Tone It Down - 21-1

Next entry will be my picks. So, in other words, the horses you cross of your list because I picked them.

Preakness Day, 4 p.m.

With the sun still somewhat shining at Pimlico and temps in the upper 70's, there was some movement in the odds with two hours to go before the Preakness gets rolling.

As my good friend Pat Forde of ESPN.com said "someone unbuckled" on Musket Man. The third place finisher in the Kentucky Derby dropped from 14-1 to 9-1. Someone from trainer Derek Ryan's homebase in New Jersey must have dropped a lot of pesos on the colt.

Rachel Alexandra continues to slowly drift as she now stands at 2-1. At her lowest, she was 6-5 but money has started to spread out more evenly.

Here are the updates on the main contenders:
Big Drama - 10-1
Mine That Bird - 6-1
Friesan Fire - 9-1 (been either 8 or 9 all day)
Papa Clem - 15-1
Pioneerof the Nile - 6-1

Members of the overbet club:
Luv Gov - 25-1
Flying Private - 25-1
Take The Points - 16-1
Tone It Down - 21-1

Preakness...Where are We Now?

With all the crazy Preakness news over the past few days, it is easy to lose focus on the the big picture with less than five days until the race. Here's a quick recap on who is running and a note on each.

The two big stories:

Rachel Alexandra - The superstar filly and Kentucky Oaks winner appears to be "all systems go" to be become the first female to run in the Preakness in 10 years (last - Excellent Meeting). After all the back and forth two owners trying to keep her out of the Preakness, sanity and fairness prevailed. She is set to fly to Baltimore on Tuesday and her new owner, Jess Jackson, will make the final decision to enter Rachel once she is safe and sound at Pimlico. Calvin Borel will ride and she will be the post-time favorite.

Mine That Bird - After co-owner Mark Allen smartened up and gave up blocking Rachel from running in the Preakness, it was back to business for the Derby winner on Monday. The son of Birdstone (pictured left) had an semi-unplanned workout at Churchill Monday morning (1/2 mile - 49.20) under Borel. If Rachel goes, then Mike Smith will take the reigns from Borel. Mine That Bird could be the longest priced Derby winner of all time based on the field that's set to run on Saturday.

The rest of the field (no disrespect intended):

Big Drama - One of the unheralded horses in the field as he has a record of 5-1-1 in seven starts. Jockey John Velazquez will ride him for the first time and should be keeping Rachel Alexandra occupied on the front end of the race. He will be one to watch.

Flying Private - The last place finisher (19th) in the Derby will take another shot at a Triple Crown. Trainer D. Wayne blamed the sloppy track for his bad finish in the Derby and gets star rider Alan Garcia to take the mount. Not sure that will help much.

Friesan Fire - The Derby favorite, who beat only Flying Private in the "Run for the Roses," will work Tuesday morning and then a final decision will be made to run him. If recovered from his Derby injuries, he could be very tough and will be a decent price.

General Quarters - The great story of the Derby has bounced back from his 10th place Derby finish and is set to arrive in Baltimore Tuesday afternoon. Tough to know how he will run but hard not to root for again.

Hull - Trainer Dale Romans pulled the plug on running this unbeaten colt in the Preakness with the presence of Rachel Alexandra.

Luv Guv - The namesake of former NY Governor Elliot Spitzer, who has just one win to his credit, will be a longshot. Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas said this horse has a bright future and will be their Belmont horse. I think Lukas is giving you a hint...don't bet him here.

Musket Man - The third place Derby finisher, who has been training back at his home base at Monmouth Park in New Jersey, will wait until the morning of the race to ship to Pimlico. (A little bit of a concern for me. Why wait that long?) He will workout on Tuesday but his record is one of the best in the field - 5-0-2 in seven starts.

Papa Clem - The Arkansas Derby winner, who currently is only one of two Preakness runners at Pimlico, is looking to better his fourth place finish in the Derby. A dry track should help him and being just off the lead during the Preakness should be to his advantage.

Pioneerof the Nile - With trainer Bob Baffert on hand, the Derby runner-up (right) worked great at Churchill on Monday morning - 1/2 mile in :47.60. The colt will fly to Baltimore on Wednesday and will be one of the horses to beat.

Take The Points - Trainer Todd Pletcher, who is still in search of a win in the Derby and Preakness, will take his shot at the Preakness with this lightly raced colt. He skipped the Derby with this race in mind. His career highlight was second to The Pamplemousse at Santa Anita in February. Not quite sure what to think of him yet but getting Edgar Prado to ride is a huge help.

Terrain - The well bred son of Sky Mesa, who's been idle since a fourth in the Toyota Blue Grass, will head to Baltimore on Wednesday from Louisville. He hasn't won since being placed first via DQ in the Arlington Washington Futurity in September. Not a good sign that he's 0-for-2 this year.

Tone It Down - The true local horse of the field, finished third last time out in the Federico Tesio at Pimlico. He would appear to be overmatched but it always seems like a local horse always is a danger.

Derby Odds/Upset City

With the forecast for no less than an 70% chance of rain for tomorrow, the betting public have taken notice and shifted the favoritism away from I Want Revenge.

Friesan Fire is currently the early 4-1 favorite. His last race was a win on a sloppy track in Louisiana and has been a horse that got a lot of attention this week.

I Want Revenge now stands at 5-1 while a trio of horses are 8-1, Chocolate Candy, Dunkirk and Pioneerof the Nile. General Quarters, the Blue Grass winner, is 9-1. Hold Me Back is 10-1 while Arkansas Derby winner Papa Clem is 14-1.

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With the scratch of Zenyatta from the Louisville Distaff, One Caroline, another unbeaten filly, looked to be in prime position to keep his perfect record in tact. After a protracted stretch duel, One Caroline gave in late to Miss Isella at odds of 8-1.

So what looked to be a matchup of two undefeated filly, fizzled out in an upset win. Oh well. Lots of good races to come.

What You Might Have Missed Monday....

On a rainy day in Louisville, there wasn't a lot of Kentucky Derby news but there were a few highlights.

The field of horses wanting to run in the Derby shrunk to 23 but for those in the Top 20, now all but one is "definite."

The only horse that is on the fence is Advice, the Todd Pletcher-trained winner of Saturday's Coolmore Lexington at Keeneland. It would be surprising if the horse didn't run but a two week turn around is a little short. Pletcher pulled Take the Points from Derby consideration and is now likely to run in the Lone Star Derby.

The Derby jockey shuffle continued as Robby Albarado took the mount on the D. Wayne Lukas trained Flying Private.

Calvin Borel, who captured the 2007 Derby aboard Street Sense, picked up Mine That Bird.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Square Eddie is without a jockey after Edgar Prado chose Dunkirk and Rafael Bejarano stayed with Arkansas Derby winner Papa Clem. The best available riders that trainer Doug O'Neill could chose are: Alex Solis, Tyler Baze, David Flores and Javier Castellano. (My prediction - Baze).

Alan Garcia and Ramon Dominguez are slated to ride the Godolphin-owned duo of Desert Party and Regal Ransom. What hasn't been decided is which jockey will ride which horse. Frankie Dettori, who rode Desert Party in Dubai is not coming over for the Derby. Not a big vote of confidence.

As many as six Derby contenders are slated to work on Tuesday:

Pioneerof the Nile, I Want Revenge, Chocolate Candy, Win Willy, Mine That Bird and Atomic Rain.

Saturday News

Here is the report of the Kentucky Derby contender workouts this morning.

At Churchill Downs:

The Godolphin owned and Saeed bin Suroor trained duo:

Regal Ransom - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) in :59.80. The fourth fastest of 28.
Desert Party - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile in 1:00.20. The sixth best of 28

"Both of them seemed to grab the track really good," said assistant trainer Rick Mettee.

Word is that Desert Party has looked tremendous since shipping back to the United State from the Middle East last week. Suroor was quoted yesterday in Ireland that he believes Desert Party is best chance ever to win the Derby.

Both horses aren't definite for the Derby but it would be a surprise to see one sit on the sideline.

The other horse to work out at Churchill:

Musket Man - 6 furlongs (3/4 mile) in 1:13. Fastest of three.

This was the first workout since he won the Illinois Derby and moved his overall record to five wins in six starts. Trained Derek Ryan was thrilled afterward

"It went very well - it couldn't have been a better work," he said.

The other big workout occurred in South Florida.

Dunkirk - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) in 59.90. The fastest of 12.

The $3.7 million auction purchase, trained by Todd Pletcher, will not arrive at Churchill Downs until April 28.

Expected to workout on Sunday is Arkansas Derby winner Papa Clem (7 furlongs) as well as Take The Points. Pletcher said Take The Points , currently 24th on the Graded Stakes Earnings List, is still not definite to run in the Derby but any defections could change that.

Send in The Clowns or Birds

The ever changing Kentucky Derby field fluctuated again on Friday as two horses that were on the fence are going to fly to Louisville and jump into the fray. But these might be more gate fillers than legitimate contenders.

Mine That Bird and Summer Bird, both sons of 2004 Belmont Stakes winner Birdstone, are the latest to join the crowded field but the weakest of the two is the only one guaranteed a spot in the 20-horse starting gate.

Mine That Bird (overall record, 8-4-1-0, "real dirt" record, 2-0-1-0,
18th on Graded Earnings List) -
The colt has yet to win this year in two starts and has faced sub par competition at Sunland Park in New Mexico. Last year, while racing in Canada on the "artificial" dirt (Polytrack), he won four of five starts but ran last in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in October.

The trainer, Bennie Woolley, told The Blood-Horse that this was "their one shot at the Derby." No one can blame them for that. Having a chance to run in the Kentucky Derby is an experience that's hard to pass up but don't waste your money at the betting windows on him.

Summer Bird,(overall record, 3-1-0-1, "real dirt" record, 3-1-0-1,
21st on Graded Earnings List) -
Here is a colt that's getting better and better with each start. He was third in the Arkansas Derby behind Papa Clem after dropping way behind early in the race. But he has just three career races and it's a lot to ask a young inexperienced horse to run well, let alone win, the Derby. He might be a horse to watch as the year unfolds.

Analyzing the Top Contenders

With a little over two weeks before the 135th Kentucky Derby, I thought I would take a quick look at some of the top contenders are expected to run Churchill Downs.

And, of course, just when you think you've got the field of 20 horses for the Derby all figured out, something comes out of nowhere to change it.

Joining the Derby fray on Thursday was Flat Out who was 6th in the Arkansas Derby but currently is 28th on the Graded Stakes Earnings list. Bailing on the Derby was Mafaaz, the European based horse that flopped in the Toyota Blue Grass on Saturday. The owners also moved the horse to the barn of NY-based trainer Kiaran McLaughlin so perhaps a run in the Belmont Stakes?

Now, here's a look in earnings order (as well as their record on "conventional" dirt) at the leading contenders for the "Run for the Roses":

(record - starts-wins-second-third)
Regal Ransom (Overall Record 5-2-2-0, "Real Dirt" record 1-1-0-0) -
One of two Godolphin owned horses in the Derby. The tough part for them is they run against suspect competition in Dubai and they've never come close to winning the Derby. Don't think this one will be the one to change that.

Pioneerof the Nile (Overall Record 8-5-0-1, "Real Dirt" record 0-0-0-0) -
The best from California and the horses from the West Coast have been doing great when they've come East (see I Want Revenge and Papa Clem.) Won four straight since moving to trainer Bob Baffert in the winter. Never run on "conventional" dirt but his parents both ran well at Churchill Downs. A major contender and trained by a guy who has won three Derbys. Not bad.

Square Eddie (Overall Record 7-2-3-1, "Real Dirt" record 0-0-0-0) -
Former European took the world by storm when he won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in October but was injured in January and presumed out of the Derby. Low and behold, he's back and running this weekend at Keeneland. Could be a lot to ask him to win the Derby with just one race in the last 3 1/2 months.

I Want Revenge (Overall Record 8-3-1-4, "Real Dirt" record 2-2-0-0) -
The "hot" horse on the Derby trail. His two East Coast races have been super impressive and has taken a liking to life away from the artificial dirt. If his star crossed trainer, Jeff Mullins, can stay out of trouble (which has been difficult since winning the Gotham), he is the horse to beat.

Papa Clem (Overall Record 6-2-2-0, "Real Dirt" record 2-1-1-0) -
Yet another West Coast who become a major contender. He won the Arkansas Derby last weekend and was narrowly beaten by Pioneerof the Nile in February. Big problem though is not sure he wants to go the Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles.

Desert Party (Overall Record 6-4-1-0, "Real Dirt" record 2-1-0-0) -
The best of the Middle East horses was beaten by stablemate Regal Ransom last time. The $2.1 million auction purchase has loads of talent and is their owners' best chance to win the Derby in years but the Middle East to US experiment has been a failure to date. Don't think he wins but maybe somewhere in the Top 5.

Quality Road (Overall Record 4-3-1-0, "Real Dirt" Record 4-3-1-0) -
RED FLAG WARNING - Was a major contender after winning the Florida Derby last month but a quarter crack was found in his foot last week. The crack usually is painful but had a nice workout this week in New York. Watch this very carefully.

General Quarters (Overall Record 11-3-3-1, "Real Dirt" Record 7-2-2-1)
By far the best story of the Kentucky Derby. Owned and trained by a 75-year-old former high school principal with just one horse in his stable, the gray colt (right) has won two of his last three including the Blue Grass Stakes. Can he overcome the curse of winning the Blue Grass? Only two horses in the last 36 years have won both (Strike the Gold, 1991 & Spectacular Bid. 1979).

Friesan Fire (Overall Record 7-4-1-1, "Real Dirt" Record 7-4-1-1)
On paper, he looks like one of the best horses in the race but when you a look a little closer, there are a couple of concerns. Chief among them is that he has not run since March 14 and that gives him seven weeks between starts. No horse has won the Derby with that much time between races since Needles in 1956. The other concern is that his best race came on a wet track. Watch how he trains the next two weeks. (This is trainer Larry Jones only horse left after Old Fashioned retired this week.)

Musket Man (Overall Record 6-5-0-1, "Real Dirt" Record 6-5-0-1)
He might be the most underrated horse in the field considering his lofty record. He beat a poor field in the Illinois Derby but he defeated General Quarters in the Tampa Bay Derby last month. The big concern is his bloodlines as there doesn't appear to be stamina in his family.

Hold Me Back (Overall Record 5-3-0-1, "Real Dirt" Record 1-0-0-0)
Another horse with a very nice record but appears to be an "artificial" dirt specialist. His only real dirt race was a distance fifth place finish last November. He has the benefit of trainer Bill Mott, one of the all-time best, but he needs to prove he can duplicate his artificial dirt form on the Churchill Downs surface.

West Side Bernie (Overall Record 7-2-2-1, "Real Dirt" Record 4-1-2-1)
A hard trying horse that does not have a marquee win but always seems to give an honest effort each time. Another big plus for him is that he has never run a race shorter than 1 mile and 70 yards which could prove to be beneficial when running 1 1/4 miles in the Derby. Could be a nice longshot to run second or third.

Chocolate Candy (Overall Record 9-4-2-1, "Real Dirt" Record 0-0-0-0)
WISE GUY ALERT - After knocking off the best 3-year-olds in Northern California, the horse, owned by Sid & Jenny Craig, ran a close second to Pioneerof the Nile in early April. He is definitely one to watch but will probably be a "wise guy" horse because of good runner-up finish last time. As a result, he might over bet.

Dunkirk (Overall Record 3-2-1-0, "Real Dirt" Record 3-2-1-0)
WISE GUY ALERT - The most expensive and perhaps most talented horse in the field. His regal breeding (his mom, Secret Status, won the Kentucky Oaks) fetched $3.7 million at public auction and could be the next big star in racing. But, he only has three lifetime starts and only one horse in Derby history has won the "Run for the Roses" with just three outings (Regret, 1915). Curlin tried it a couple of years ago and ran third. Be careful if you bet him.

All photos courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire

One Trick Pony

Horse racing was searching for a good and heartwarming story after Jeff Mullins, who trains likely Kentucky Derby favorite I Want Revenge, was caught by New York racing officials giving a horse cough medicine. The search ended in Lexington as a man with just one horse, General Quarters, in his barn captured the $750,000 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland.

Tom McCarthy, a 75-year-old retired high school principal, acquired General Quarters for just $20,000 out of race at Churchill Downs last May. After a very ordinary 2008, the gray colt gave his owner/trainer the ultimate lottery ticket in 2009 - winning two of four starts including two major Kentucky Derby prep races.

And, oh by the way, the horse was earned $641,375 in his career. Not bad.

The racing world was introduced earlier this year to McCarthy when he won the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa on Valentine's Day. Now McCarthy and his one horse will take center stage in Louisville as one of the major contenders for the Run for the Roses.

The Blue Grass served another important purpose - eliminating some of the Derby pretenders. Looks like only three horses will move on to Louisville: General Quarters, Hold Me Back and Terrain. The big question mark is European import Mafaaz. He ran 8th but the owner and trainer were non-committal as to his next race. (Mafaaz has a guaranteed spot in the Derby as he won the Kentucky Derby Challenge Stakes in England last month.)

The Arkansas Derby proved to be a weak race as Old Fashioned, once on top of many Derby contender lists, couldn't hold off Papa Clem. The loss marked the second straight defeat for Old Fashioned after being rattling off four straights wins to begin his career.

The interesting side note to Papa Clem beat I Want Revenge in February at Santa Anita. Papa Clem is the second high profile Southern California based horse to make a successful transition from the artificial "pro ride" surface to conventional dirt.

Only one more prep race to go - The Coolmore Lexington next Saturday at Keeneland. A full field is expected headed by Derby contender Square Eddie.