Dunkirk Injured

Belmont Stakes runner-up Dunkirk (right) came out of the race with an injury that will put him on the sidelines at least until the Fall.

The regally bred of son Unbridled's Song suffered a non-displaced condylar fracture of the left hind cannon bone. Trainer Todd Pletcher said the gray colt will have surgery this morning and is expected to make a full recovery and return to the races.

The surgery will be performed at the Ruffian Medical Equine Center in Elmont, NY.

His runner-up performance was impressive considering he set the pace and battled back after being passed by Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird at the top of the stretch. Now that we know he injured himself during the race, it was an even more incredible performance.

There was never any doubt the horse had talent and ability. Certainly his $3.7 million price tag is a great example. But I will be curious to see when he does come back, if he can regain the form he had before the injury.

Photo courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire

Borel Cost Himself the Crown

Calvin Borel should be a Hall of Famer. There is no doubt about that. His ride in the Kentucky Derby was among his best. But today's Belmont proved to be one of the biggest debacles of his 30,000-plus race career.

Looking for racing immortality, Borel guided Mine That Bird to the back of the pack in the early running of the race, which was a great move; in fact his last smart action of the race.

Surprisingly, Dunkirk was on the lead through the early parts of the race and, even though he was only 11 lengths off the lead, Borel elected to move Mine That Bird to the outside. But this is a horse who sees daylight and runs for it, so a move like that (with only half the race in the book) was very dangerous.

Mine That Bird collared the leaders on the far turn and was in the lead at the top of the stretch. One small problem: he still had a quarter of a mile to go (compare this to the Derby, where he wasn't on the lead until they were halfway down the stretch).

Now Borel has to get his horse down the long Belmont stretch and Mine That Bird was running out of gas quickly. And, he used up even more energy by running on the outside as opposed to Borel's customary spot along the rail.

Summer Bird, who was very patiently ridden by Kent Desormeaux, took advantage of the tiring horses and mowed down Mine That Bird and Dunkirk inside the final eighth of a mile and cruised home.

That was the move Borel should have made and it was there for the taking.

"I thought I had it won when I got the quarter pole," Borel said. "No excuses. He ran his eyeballs out. He took me a little earlier....I might have let him get up earlier but I wasn't going to take the race out of him. Turning for him, I thought I was home free."

Those were similar comments that Desormeaux made when Real Quiet was beaten a nose by Victory Gallop in 1998. Desormeaux played the Victory Gallop role on Saturday and it proved to be a magic formula.

Was not riding at Belmont at all this week a factor? Maybe. It certainly didn't help.

But, the bottom line is that Borel could have and should have gone to the inside and timed his move better. If so, we would likely have seen a Calvin Crown. Now, we have yet another upset in the Belmont and racing goes without a Triple Crown of any sort.

Belmont Time - Analysis and Picks

The talk and the Triple Crown is just about over and the Belmont Stakes is at hand.

Here is a look at the field of 10 (and their record):

1) Chocolate Candy (10-4-2-1) - Been off since running fifth in the Kentucky Derby. Has the ability to be close to the lead which will be a big benefit with the speed holding at Belmont today. He's been training in NY for five weeks so he should be acclimated to the Belmont surface. Don't like the fact that he's just 8-1 to but if he likes "traditional dirt", he will be in the thick of it.

2) Dunkirk (4-2-1-0) - After disappointing (11th place) as the second choice in the Kentucky Derby, trainer Todd Pletcher appears to have the regally bred colt ready for this race. Jockey John Velazquez, Pletcher's regular rider, will ride him for the first time. Today he will look to validate his $3.7 million public auction price. Very dangerous here.

3) Mr. Hot Stuff (8-1-0-3) - The full brother to Colonel John has been a disappointment this year. He was 15th in the Derby in his first start on "real dirt" and will need a quick pace in front of his if he has any chance. The big plus for him is that he gets the services of Edgar Prado. Not likely to win here.

4) Summer Bird (4-1-0-1) - The "buzz horse" of Belmont Week is another horse who will be flying late. He also will need a quick pace in front of him but he has lots of talent and showed when he was third in the Arkansas Derby. He gets blinkers on for the first time which may move him closer to the lead and gets a big rider switch from Chris Rosier to Hall of Famer Kent Desormeaux. If he's closer early in the race, he has a big shot.

5) Luv Gov (11-1-3-1) - A horse the probably doesn't belong in the Belmont. Just one win and never beaten these kind of horses. Pass.

6) Charitable Man (4-3-0-0) - The value of the Belmont, the colt has never lost in three starts on "real dirt" and is 2-for-2 at Belmont Park. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin won this race in 2006 with Jazil and is very, very dangerous here.

7) Mine That Bird (10-5-2-0) - What more can you say about this colt? The Derby winner and Preakness runner-up has become such a great story continues to get better with each start. Jockey Calvin Borel is looking for racing immortality trying to win the Triple Crown on two different horses in the same year. The key will be is where Borel places the horse early in the race. He can't be to far back or to close. I would love to see him win and has a great shot to give Borel a "Calvin Crown."

8) Flying Private (12-1-4-0) - Trainer D. Wayne Lukas has won four Belmonts and turned this colt around after running last in the Derby. Was a troubled fourth in the Preakness but will need to improve more to be a factor here. Watch later in the year.

9) Miner's Escape (7-2-0-0) - Trainer Nick Zito has become the "Crown Killer" after stopping two Triple Crowns in the past five years. This horse's best shot will be to repeat what stablemate D'Tara did last year. Go to the front and steal the race. If he doesn't do that, he has no shot. But counting out Zito is tough in the Belmont is tough.

10) Brave Victory (9-2-2-1) - Zito's other horse in the Belmont will need a good trip to have any shot. Since he's on the outside, he will need to stay out of trouble and the best chance may be to drop back, like he did when he finished third to Charitable Man last month.

I will be rooting for Mine That Bird as it would be a great story in sports. Charitable Man is the best value of the race since he's 5-1.

Picks:
7) Mine That Bird
2) Dunkirk
6) Charitable Man
1) Chocolate Candy

Belmont Update - 5:00 p.m.

Calvin Borel was just interviewed on ESPN and was asked about not riding at all before the Belmont and he seemed at ease with his decision saying that he's stayed in shape and has kept busy. He also deflected some of that decision to his agent, Jerry Hissam. He certainly will leave himself open to criticism if he loses a close race in the Belmont.

As for an update on the odds, Mine That Bird is still hanging in at even money while Chocolate Candy if floating up to 8-1. He should be at least 10-1.

Charitable Man remains at 5-1 looks to be a good value as he loves Belmont and traditional dirt. Dunkirk remains steady at 6-1.

But, someone, please explain to me why Luv Gov is just 20-1. There's always someone who is way overbet in races and he is one of those horses. Flying Private is by far trainer D. Wayne Lukas' best shot.

Belmont Update - 3:45 p.m.

The first big upset of the day of Belmont day happened in the 7th race when champion female turfer Forever Together was upset by Diamondrella in the Just a Game.

The next race on the card, The Woody Stephens, will showcase some of the up and coming 3-year-olds that were not ready or good enough to make the Triple Crown. Horses to watch in the race include Munnings, who cost $1.7 million at auction two years ago, This Ones for Phil, trained by Rick Dutrow who is best known for Big Brown's Triple Crown run of last year, and the undefeated (3-for-3) Hull.

As for the Belmont odds, the only change is Chocolate Candy drifting up to 7-1.

Mine That Bird is still even money, Charitable Man is 5-1 and Dunkirk 6-1.

The big mystery is how Luv Gov is 20-1. A horse who is 1-for-11 lifetime was a well beaten eight in the Preakness should be at least 50-1.

Belmont Update - 3 p.m.

With a 3 1/2 hours to go before the Belmont, the betting public has firmly backed Derby winner Mine That Bird.

The son of 2004 Belmont winner Birdstone is standing at even money. He might be a tad over bet but hard to doubt him now after the Derby and Preakness.

Second choice is Charitable Man - 5-1. I thought he might be a shorter price since he has never lost at Belmont (2-for-2) or on conventional dirt (3-for-3).

A pair of horses are tied for third choice at 6-1; Dunkirk and Chocolate Candy. Dunkirk's odds make sense but Chocolate Candy is over bet. He was 10-1 in the morning line and has never won “real dirt”.

The interesting next one on the list is Summer Bird. He is 11-1 and is become the “buzz horse” of Belmont Week. Before you get sold on him, remember he has only won one race in his career and is going to be far back early.

Derby Selections

Kentucky Derby Picks -

Ok...now that the talk is over, it's time to pick a winner.

Unfortunately, my initial selection, I Want Revenge came up with a injury this morning and was scratched.

Now, after spending hours looking over all the contenders again, here is who I settled on in finish order:

6) Friesan Fire - With the track still wet and the morning-line favorite out, the race sets up perfectly for him. He should be just off the front end early on, make his move near the final turn and hold off a host of fast closing horses. The win would give trainer Larry Jones his first Derby victory.

15) Dunkirk - Perhaps the most talented horse in the field will benefit from an expected fast pace early on. The colt, was sold for $3.7 million dollars at public auction, will be closing late and if he avoids trouble, will be very tough. Only question will be how he handles the wet track.

16) Pioneerof the Nile - Trainer Bob Baffert has won three Kentucky Derby's and this colt is on a roll after winning four straight. The big question about him is will he handle traditional dirt. He's only run on "artificial dirt" but his parents both loved running at Churchill Downs.

11) Chocolate Candy - Another horse who ran exclusively on "artificial dirt" has shown a lot of promise this year and was second to Pioneerof the Nile in his last start. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, nicknamed the "King of Northern California", will have his horse in mid-pack
Here's one last look at the Kentucky Derby contenders as we countdown to the "Run for the Roses"

3) Mr. Hot Stuff - The little brother of Colonel John will be another horse coming "from the clounds" down the stretch. Will be a huge price.

Others that have question marks but not picking: 2) Musket Man; 5) Hold Me Back; 7) Papa Clem; 12) General Quarters; 19) Desert Party

Derby Odds/Upset City

With the forecast for no less than an 70% chance of rain for tomorrow, the betting public have taken notice and shifted the favoritism away from I Want Revenge.

Friesan Fire is currently the early 4-1 favorite. His last race was a win on a sloppy track in Louisiana and has been a horse that got a lot of attention this week.

I Want Revenge now stands at 5-1 while a trio of horses are 8-1, Chocolate Candy, Dunkirk and Pioneerof the Nile. General Quarters, the Blue Grass winner, is 9-1. Hold Me Back is 10-1 while Arkansas Derby winner Papa Clem is 14-1.

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With the scratch of Zenyatta from the Louisville Distaff, One Caroline, another unbeaten filly, looked to be in prime position to keep his perfect record in tact. After a protracted stretch duel, One Caroline gave in late to Miss Isella at odds of 8-1.

So what looked to be a matchup of two undefeated filly, fizzled out in an upset win. Oh well. Lots of good races to come.

Derby Draw Analysis - Winners & Losers

Even with the late defection of Win Willy due to a leg injury Wednesday morning, the Kentucky Derby field still reached 20 with the late addition of Nowhere to Hide. Now with the Post Position Draw complete, let's take a look at the winners and losers during the draw.

WINNERS
15 - Dunkirk- The highly touted and talented colt will need a lot of breaks to go his way and his starting spot is a good start. The 15 post is great because this is the first gate in the Auxiliary Starting Gate. (The main starting gate holds just 14 horses.) As a result there is a nice space to his left that will give crucial room to maneuver early in the race. He will likely drop back early but it's good to have a little cushion right after the start.

16 - Pioneerof the Nile - Leave it to three-time Derby winning trainer Bob Baffert to put his colt (right) in spot that been successful over the last few years. As Dunkirk is likely to take advantage of the extra space to his left, Pioneer should benefit from that and stay outside and away from a lot of the traditional bumping that goes on at the start of the race. The key will be not getting pushed to far outside on the first turn.

6 - Friesan Fire - Although it isn't a tremendous victory for him, trainer Larry Jones put his horse in a pretty solid starting position. With his tactical speed, the colt should be able to get near the early lead and settle in a good spot to make his run around the far turn. The only danger for him could be is if he is squeezed by another horse to his inside. With the forecast for rain and his love for a sloppy track, this spot could win up being a huge plus in the end.

LOSERS

19 - Desert Party - A horse that appeared to be powerhouse owner Godolphin's best shot to win the Derby, drew the "short straw" by having a late selection. The result left him in a slot that no horse has won from in the 135-year history of the Derby. Since Desert Party likes to be near the lead, jockey Ramon Dominguez will have a tough decision to make: push his horse early to be near the lead and potentially use up some "gas" or take a chance in not pushing the pedal but could be pushed out wide on the first turn.

1 - West Side Bernie - A lot of times, being on the rail, in the No. 1 starting gate is a good thing. In the Derby, it's usually a death knell. Only one horse (Ferdinand, 1986) in the last 46 years has won for this spot. The inside spot will probably make West Side Bernie get near the lead early which is contrary to his running style of dropping back. If he doesn't move up early, he could get shut off and lose all chance early on.

20 - Flying Private - D. Wayne Lukas (right), a Hall of Famer and four-time Derby winning trainer, has been a master of getting a horse ready for a big race. But this 50-1 shot already had his work cut out for him but drawing the outside post might have sealed his fate. Only Big Brown, the 2008 Derby winner, has won from the starting position, and this horse is no Big Brown. He will be pushed outside on both turns which will likely use up most of his energy.

CAUTION

13 - I Want Revenge - Although the 3-1 Derby favorite isn't in a bad starting position, he has the potential of getting squeezed by General Quarters and Atomic Rain. The big advantage for I Want Revenge is that he overcame plenty of trouble in the Wood Memorial and has a very versatile running style. Young jockey Joe Talamo will be tested once again.

Photos courtesy of Eclipse Sports Wire

Tuesday Morning News

So much for being done with Derby horses being injured.

Square Eddie, one of the better 2-year-olds from last year, was pulled from the Kentucky Derby by trainer Doug O'Neill this morning after re-aggravating a shin injury that kept him on the sidelines most of the winter. The latest ailment doesn't appear to be serious but it certainly ends his hope for wearing roses on Saturday.

The workout of the morning came from Wood Memorial winner and likely Derby favorite I Want Revenge. With his regular jockey (and now TV star) Joe Talamo aboard, the son of Stephen Got Even, worked a half mile in :47.20 (fractional splits - 11.40 (1/8 mile), 23.20 (1/4 mile), 35 2/5 (3/8 mile) and finished out the work going 5/8 mile in 1:00. 80.

Most of the attention over the past few days had shifted away from I Want Revenge to other major contenders like Friesan Fire, Dunkirk and Pioneerof the Nile. But after his work on Tuesday morning, that should erase a lot of doubts if the Jeff Mullins-trained colt can handle the Churchill Downs surface.

Let's hope that Mullins' troubles are behind him for now and the attention does stay focused on the horse the rest of the week.

The other big news on Tuesday is that we will have the field for the Kentucky Oaks, the sister race to the Derby. Rachel Alexandra, who has been nearly untouchable this year, will be the prohibitive favorite.

There are also some great races slated for the race preceding the Oaks and we'll dive more into those later.

What You Might Have Missed Monday....

On a rainy day in Louisville, there wasn't a lot of Kentucky Derby news but there were a few highlights.

The field of horses wanting to run in the Derby shrunk to 23 but for those in the Top 20, now all but one is "definite."

The only horse that is on the fence is Advice, the Todd Pletcher-trained winner of Saturday's Coolmore Lexington at Keeneland. It would be surprising if the horse didn't run but a two week turn around is a little short. Pletcher pulled Take the Points from Derby consideration and is now likely to run in the Lone Star Derby.

The Derby jockey shuffle continued as Robby Albarado took the mount on the D. Wayne Lukas trained Flying Private.

Calvin Borel, who captured the 2007 Derby aboard Street Sense, picked up Mine That Bird.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Square Eddie is without a jockey after Edgar Prado chose Dunkirk and Rafael Bejarano stayed with Arkansas Derby winner Papa Clem. The best available riders that trainer Doug O'Neill could chose are: Alex Solis, Tyler Baze, David Flores and Javier Castellano. (My prediction - Baze).

Alan Garcia and Ramon Dominguez are slated to ride the Godolphin-owned duo of Desert Party and Regal Ransom. What hasn't been decided is which jockey will ride which horse. Frankie Dettori, who rode Desert Party in Dubai is not coming over for the Derby. Not a big vote of confidence.

As many as six Derby contenders are slated to work on Tuesday:

Pioneerof the Nile, I Want Revenge, Chocolate Candy, Win Willy, Mine That Bird and Atomic Rain.

Saturday News

Here is the report of the Kentucky Derby contender workouts this morning.

At Churchill Downs:

The Godolphin owned and Saeed bin Suroor trained duo:

Regal Ransom - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) in :59.80. The fourth fastest of 28.
Desert Party - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile in 1:00.20. The sixth best of 28

"Both of them seemed to grab the track really good," said assistant trainer Rick Mettee.

Word is that Desert Party has looked tremendous since shipping back to the United State from the Middle East last week. Suroor was quoted yesterday in Ireland that he believes Desert Party is best chance ever to win the Derby.

Both horses aren't definite for the Derby but it would be a surprise to see one sit on the sideline.

The other horse to work out at Churchill:

Musket Man - 6 furlongs (3/4 mile) in 1:13. Fastest of three.

This was the first workout since he won the Illinois Derby and moved his overall record to five wins in six starts. Trained Derek Ryan was thrilled afterward

"It went very well - it couldn't have been a better work," he said.

The other big workout occurred in South Florida.

Dunkirk - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) in 59.90. The fastest of 12.

The $3.7 million auction purchase, trained by Todd Pletcher, will not arrive at Churchill Downs until April 28.

Expected to workout on Sunday is Arkansas Derby winner Papa Clem (7 furlongs) as well as Take The Points. Pletcher said Take The Points , currently 24th on the Graded Stakes Earnings List, is still not definite to run in the Derby but any defections could change that.

Analyzing the Top Contenders

With a little over two weeks before the 135th Kentucky Derby, I thought I would take a quick look at some of the top contenders are expected to run Churchill Downs.

And, of course, just when you think you've got the field of 20 horses for the Derby all figured out, something comes out of nowhere to change it.

Joining the Derby fray on Thursday was Flat Out who was 6th in the Arkansas Derby but currently is 28th on the Graded Stakes Earnings list. Bailing on the Derby was Mafaaz, the European based horse that flopped in the Toyota Blue Grass on Saturday. The owners also moved the horse to the barn of NY-based trainer Kiaran McLaughlin so perhaps a run in the Belmont Stakes?

Now, here's a look in earnings order (as well as their record on "conventional" dirt) at the leading contenders for the "Run for the Roses":

(record - starts-wins-second-third)
Regal Ransom (Overall Record 5-2-2-0, "Real Dirt" record 1-1-0-0) -
One of two Godolphin owned horses in the Derby. The tough part for them is they run against suspect competition in Dubai and they've never come close to winning the Derby. Don't think this one will be the one to change that.

Pioneerof the Nile (Overall Record 8-5-0-1, "Real Dirt" record 0-0-0-0) -
The best from California and the horses from the West Coast have been doing great when they've come East (see I Want Revenge and Papa Clem.) Won four straight since moving to trainer Bob Baffert in the winter. Never run on "conventional" dirt but his parents both ran well at Churchill Downs. A major contender and trained by a guy who has won three Derbys. Not bad.

Square Eddie (Overall Record 7-2-3-1, "Real Dirt" record 0-0-0-0) -
Former European took the world by storm when he won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in October but was injured in January and presumed out of the Derby. Low and behold, he's back and running this weekend at Keeneland. Could be a lot to ask him to win the Derby with just one race in the last 3 1/2 months.

I Want Revenge (Overall Record 8-3-1-4, "Real Dirt" record 2-2-0-0) -
The "hot" horse on the Derby trail. His two East Coast races have been super impressive and has taken a liking to life away from the artificial dirt. If his star crossed trainer, Jeff Mullins, can stay out of trouble (which has been difficult since winning the Gotham), he is the horse to beat.

Papa Clem (Overall Record 6-2-2-0, "Real Dirt" record 2-1-1-0) -
Yet another West Coast who become a major contender. He won the Arkansas Derby last weekend and was narrowly beaten by Pioneerof the Nile in February. Big problem though is not sure he wants to go the Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles.

Desert Party (Overall Record 6-4-1-0, "Real Dirt" record 2-1-0-0) -
The best of the Middle East horses was beaten by stablemate Regal Ransom last time. The $2.1 million auction purchase has loads of talent and is their owners' best chance to win the Derby in years but the Middle East to US experiment has been a failure to date. Don't think he wins but maybe somewhere in the Top 5.

Quality Road (Overall Record 4-3-1-0, "Real Dirt" Record 4-3-1-0) -
RED FLAG WARNING - Was a major contender after winning the Florida Derby last month but a quarter crack was found in his foot last week. The crack usually is painful but had a nice workout this week in New York. Watch this very carefully.

General Quarters (Overall Record 11-3-3-1, "Real Dirt" Record 7-2-2-1)
By far the best story of the Kentucky Derby. Owned and trained by a 75-year-old former high school principal with just one horse in his stable, the gray colt (right) has won two of his last three including the Blue Grass Stakes. Can he overcome the curse of winning the Blue Grass? Only two horses in the last 36 years have won both (Strike the Gold, 1991 & Spectacular Bid. 1979).

Friesan Fire (Overall Record 7-4-1-1, "Real Dirt" Record 7-4-1-1)
On paper, he looks like one of the best horses in the race but when you a look a little closer, there are a couple of concerns. Chief among them is that he has not run since March 14 and that gives him seven weeks between starts. No horse has won the Derby with that much time between races since Needles in 1956. The other concern is that his best race came on a wet track. Watch how he trains the next two weeks. (This is trainer Larry Jones only horse left after Old Fashioned retired this week.)

Musket Man (Overall Record 6-5-0-1, "Real Dirt" Record 6-5-0-1)
He might be the most underrated horse in the field considering his lofty record. He beat a poor field in the Illinois Derby but he defeated General Quarters in the Tampa Bay Derby last month. The big concern is his bloodlines as there doesn't appear to be stamina in his family.

Hold Me Back (Overall Record 5-3-0-1, "Real Dirt" Record 1-0-0-0)
Another horse with a very nice record but appears to be an "artificial" dirt specialist. His only real dirt race was a distance fifth place finish last November. He has the benefit of trainer Bill Mott, one of the all-time best, but he needs to prove he can duplicate his artificial dirt form on the Churchill Downs surface.

West Side Bernie (Overall Record 7-2-2-1, "Real Dirt" Record 4-1-2-1)
A hard trying horse that does not have a marquee win but always seems to give an honest effort each time. Another big plus for him is that he has never run a race shorter than 1 mile and 70 yards which could prove to be beneficial when running 1 1/4 miles in the Derby. Could be a nice longshot to run second or third.

Chocolate Candy (Overall Record 9-4-2-1, "Real Dirt" Record 0-0-0-0)
WISE GUY ALERT - After knocking off the best 3-year-olds in Northern California, the horse, owned by Sid & Jenny Craig, ran a close second to Pioneerof the Nile in early April. He is definitely one to watch but will probably be a "wise guy" horse because of good runner-up finish last time. As a result, he might over bet.

Dunkirk (Overall Record 3-2-1-0, "Real Dirt" Record 3-2-1-0)
WISE GUY ALERT - The most expensive and perhaps most talented horse in the field. His regal breeding (his mom, Secret Status, won the Kentucky Oaks) fetched $3.7 million at public auction and could be the next big star in racing. But, he only has three lifetime starts and only one horse in Derby history has won the "Run for the Roses" with just three outings (Regret, 1915). Curlin tried it a couple of years ago and ran third. Be careful if you bet him.

All photos courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire