Eating my "Derby Hat"

It dawned on me tonight that I wrote a couple of weeks ago about the two "Bird" horses that started in the Kentucky Derby - Mine That Bird and Summer Bird. The title of the piece was "Send in the Clowns or Birds" which was my way of saying that neither horse could win the Kentucky Derby.

Now, of course, I was one of many, many people who echoed that sentiment but I wanted to acknowledge that I could not have been more wrong about Mine That Bird. I tip my hat (and eating my Derby handicapping hat at the same time) to trainer Chip Woolley and jockey Calvin Borel for an outstanding job. They deserve all the credit.

Looking ahead to the Preakness, Mine That Bird will again be questioned by many (including yours truly) to see if he can repeat his Derby performance.

There appears to be a host of challengers either seeking a rematch or waiting for their first chance.

I will not make any prediction yet as to who will win the Preakness but you can be sure it will be as wide open a race as the Derby.

But, there will be a small part of me rooting for Mine That Bird and all of his connections. They would make a very interesting and somewhat compelling story if there was a Triple Crown on the line.

And you just have to know that Borel would love another shot at winning the Preakness after his narrow and crushing loss to Curlin just two years ago while riding Street Sense in 2007.

I will give everyone a look at the Preakness contenders in my next entry and let me know who you think will win because I was very wrong on Saturday.

Photo courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire

Day After Derby Thoughts

Some random thoughts and notes from "upset city" at the Kentucky Derby.

The more you watch the Derby, the more you begin to really appreciate the masterful ride Calvin Borel gave Mine That Bird. There are very few jocks in the world that would have had the guts to take a horse through the tight spaces that Borel guided the Derby winner through.

I was speechless after watching the race over and over and not because a 50-1 longshot won the Derby and I lost every bet I had on the race: I was amazed that Borel found the holes to guide his horse to victory without fear and proved yet again that he can ride with any other jock out there.

To give you an idea how big of an impact Borel’s ride had, look no further than Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. On the Churchill Downs backside Sunday morning, the three-time Derby wining trainer gave the jockey the highest complement – he deserves a spot in Racing’s Hall of Fame.

“He’s the only one who could have pulled that off,” the white haired trainer said. “What he did was just incredible. He won that race. He sat back there and I watched the replay – and he’s last at the three-eighths pole – you just don’t do that.”

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Don’t kick yourself if you didn’t come up with Mine That Bird before the race. Not one expert handicapper did and the horse showed no particular likeness for the real dirt after thriving on the “artificial dirt’ in Canada last year.

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It’s hard to tell if this is a good group of 3-year-old colts since the Derby was run over a sloppy track and it gives every horse in the race a built in excuse. No one should be afraid of Mine That Bird but I hope that we see Kentucky Oaks champ Rachel Alexandra take a shot against the boys in either the Preakness or Belmont. She might well blow the doors off them.

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Some random stats:

• Here is a stat I couldn’t believe (and you probably won’t either). Mine That Bird’s 6 3/4-length victory is second largest in the race’s 135 year history. The largest was 8 lengths, accomplished four different times: Old Rosebud - 1914, Johnston - 1939, Whirlaway - 1941 and Assault - 1948. The last two horses won the Triple Crown. The ill-fated Barbaro won the Derby by 6 1/2-lengths in 2006.
  

• Mine That Bird was the second horse in five years to be winless in races during his 3-year-old campaign before the Derby. Giacomo (2005) entered the Derby off a fourth place finish in the Santa Anita Derby and was 0-for-3 before the “Run for the Roses.”

• This is the third straight year that the Derby winner had just two prep races. Before that, there were only two in the previous 60 years. This is an interesting trend that may become more popular among trainers as they may elect to give a horse more rest earlier in the year.

The Magic "Rail"

For those who follow Kentucky racing, jockey Calvin Borel has a nickname: Calvin "Bo-Rail". Why you ask? He has a knack of getting every one of his horses on the inside fence (aka The Rail) as much as possible. It is not always a winning formula but it was magic on Saturday again at Churchill Downs.

Just two years ago, Borel captivated a nation with his daring inside move aboard the favored Street Sense to capture the Kentucky Derby. And the more you watched it, the more you were impressed with Borel's instinct for conserving as much if his horse's energy by keeping him along the inside.

He tried a similar move last year with Denis of Cork as he kept the chestnut on the inside most of the way and netted a third place finish.

Fast forward back to present day and Borel repeated his tried and true style. The horses on the front end were going fast and Mine That Bird settled on the rail and then on the final turn, he asked his horse for run and took off. In a matter of few seconds along the "Bo-Rail", Mine That Bird went from last to first and drew away for the victory.

Just 24 hours before the Derby, Borel was on top of the world when Rachel Alexandra won the Kentucky Oaks by an unofficial record of 20 3/4-lengths. (He became the fifth jockey to sweep the Oaks and Derby in the same year.)

So if both horses meet up in either the Preakness or Belmont which horse would Borel choose?

"Oh, I'd ride her. Like I told you, I think she's the best horse in the country right now."

Very rare you would hear a jockey willing give up a Derby winning horse but his confidence in the filly is well founded.

And, as a side note, if Rachel Alexandra had run in the Kentucky Derby, Borel would have stayed on the filly. As a result, you can be sure whomever would have ridden Mine That Bird, would not have taken the "Bo-Rail" and it's fairly certain we'd have a different horse wearing roses.

When the top 3-year-olds reunite in Baltimore for the Preakness in two weeks, you can be sure that you will find "Bo-Rail" in his familiar spot. And you can be even more certain, his fellow jockeys will know exactly where he is too. If not, he again will be gone in a flash.

Photos courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire

Derby Selections

Kentucky Derby Picks -

Ok...now that the talk is over, it's time to pick a winner.

Unfortunately, my initial selection, I Want Revenge came up with a injury this morning and was scratched.

Now, after spending hours looking over all the contenders again, here is who I settled on in finish order:

6) Friesan Fire - With the track still wet and the morning-line favorite out, the race sets up perfectly for him. He should be just off the front end early on, make his move near the final turn and hold off a host of fast closing horses. The win would give trainer Larry Jones his first Derby victory.

15) Dunkirk - Perhaps the most talented horse in the field will benefit from an expected fast pace early on. The colt, was sold for $3.7 million dollars at public auction, will be closing late and if he avoids trouble, will be very tough. Only question will be how he handles the wet track.

16) Pioneerof the Nile - Trainer Bob Baffert has won three Kentucky Derby's and this colt is on a roll after winning four straight. The big question about him is will he handle traditional dirt. He's only run on "artificial dirt" but his parents both loved running at Churchill Downs.

11) Chocolate Candy - Another horse who ran exclusively on "artificial dirt" has shown a lot of promise this year and was second to Pioneerof the Nile in his last start. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, nicknamed the "King of Northern California", will have his horse in mid-pack
Here's one last look at the Kentucky Derby contenders as we countdown to the "Run for the Roses"

3) Mr. Hot Stuff - The little brother of Colonel John will be another horse coming "from the clounds" down the stretch. Will be a huge price.

Others that have question marks but not picking: 2) Musket Man; 5) Hold Me Back; 7) Papa Clem; 12) General Quarters; 19) Desert Party

Queen For A Day

With gloomy skies overhead most of Kentucky Oaks day, everyone was hoping to see a little sunshine. What they got was something much better.

Rachel Alexandra left no doubt who was the best 3-year-old filly in the country with an absolutely dominating 20 1/4 length victory. The part that is even more impressive is that she won without being asked for additional run by jockey Calvin Borel.

It was one of the most impressive performances I have ever seen in a race of this caliber and will be remembered for quite a long time.

Now there are two big questions:

1) Should "Rachel" have run in the Kentucky Derby?

2) Will she run in the Preakness or Belmont Stakes?

My answers:

1) Racing is the land of hindsight and now that we saw the result, it's easy to say she should have been in the Derby.

Owner Dolphus Morrison said, "The Triple Crown races are to showcase the future stallions of our industry and fillies should run with fillies and stallions with stallions."

Running her in the Oaks was the right call. Why pass up a shot at a one of the most prestigious races in the country to run the risk of facing all the trouble that comes with running in a field of 20 horses. There are other opportunities to run against the boys and two other Triple Crown races. No other race is like the Kentucky Derby but winning the Oaks in the way she did was memorable and puts a huge feather in her cap.

2) Depending on what happens in the Kentucky Derby, that may help decide her next move. Trainer Hal Wiggins was quote as saying last week the Belmont Stakes was a remote possibility.

If the Derby falls apart and a long shot wins, you can be certain the people in Rachel's camp will give the Preakness serious consideration and they should.

The horses in the Preakness tend be vulnerable because they are running just two weeks after the Derby. The field will also be smaller and her running style of being close to the lead, fits perfectly.

Let's see what happens but it would certainly make for a great story to see her run in a Triple Crown race.

No matter what happens, she has secured a place in racing history with her performance on Friday. The question will now be how she builds her legacy.

Derby Odds/Upset City

With the forecast for no less than an 70% chance of rain for tomorrow, the betting public have taken notice and shifted the favoritism away from I Want Revenge.

Friesan Fire is currently the early 4-1 favorite. His last race was a win on a sloppy track in Louisiana and has been a horse that got a lot of attention this week.

I Want Revenge now stands at 5-1 while a trio of horses are 8-1, Chocolate Candy, Dunkirk and Pioneerof the Nile. General Quarters, the Blue Grass winner, is 9-1. Hold Me Back is 10-1 while Arkansas Derby winner Papa Clem is 14-1.

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With the scratch of Zenyatta from the Louisville Distaff, One Caroline, another unbeaten filly, looked to be in prime position to keep his perfect record in tact. After a protracted stretch duel, One Caroline gave in late to Miss Isella at odds of 8-1.

So what looked to be a matchup of two undefeated filly, fizzled out in an upset win. Oh well. Lots of good races to come.

Oaks Day at the Downs

Under a gray, dreary sky in Louisville, Oaks Day racing is underway at Churchill Downs.

To no ones surprise, the track is sloppy and the turf is Yielding.

The biggest disappointment already is the scratch of champion Zenyatta. Trainer John Sherriffs elected to play it safe with his prized pupil and not run her on a wet racetrack. The shame is that the trainer could have waiting a little longer in the day to see if the rain held off and the track dried out. The fans will miss out in a seeing a superstar run today.

She will make her next start at Hollywood Park on May 23.

With the first four races in the books, there has not been any big bias to the track.

The first big stakes race is the 6th race, the Aegon Turf Sprint and, of course, the highlight of the day is the 135th running of the Kentucky Oaks. That race is set to begin at 5:45 p.m. It will be broadcast on the Bravo Cable Network for the first time.

Will be back later to provide updates on the big races.