The steamy weather continues at Pimlico and there are some darker clouds off to the West. There is no question it will rain here at Pimlico but it may well happen after the running of the Preakness.
As for the odds, they're like the weather outside, stagnant.
And there probably won't be any huge moves in the odds between now and post time for the race, which should be around 6:15 p.m.
The contenders:
Rachel Alexandra - 2-1
Mine That Bird - 6-1
Pioneerof the Nile - 6-1
Musket Man - 9-1 (Had the huge surge down from 14 to 9 over an hour ago)
Friesan Fire - 9-1
Big Drama - 10-1 (Daily Racing Form reported he scraped his knee this AM. Trainer said it was "minor as could be.")
Papa Clem - 14-1
Borderliners:
Terrain - 14-1
General Quarters - 15-1
Take The Points - 16-1
No Shot-ers:
Luv Gov - 22-1
Flying Private - 25-1
Tone It Down - 21-1
Next entry will be my picks. So, in other words, the horses you cross of your list because I picked them.
Showing posts with label Friesan Fire. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Friesan Fire. Show all posts
Saturday, May 16, 2009
Preakness Day, 4 p.m.
With the sun still somewhat shining at Pimlico and temps in the upper 70's, there was some movement in the odds with two hours to go before the Preakness gets rolling.
As my good friend Pat Forde of ESPN.com said "someone unbuckled" on Musket Man. The third place finisher in the Kentucky Derby dropped from 14-1 to 9-1. Someone from trainer Derek Ryan's homebase in New Jersey must have dropped a lot of pesos on the colt.
Rachel Alexandra continues to slowly drift as she now stands at 2-1. At her lowest, she was 6-5 but money has started to spread out more evenly.
Here are the updates on the main contenders:
Big Drama - 10-1
Mine That Bird - 6-1
Friesan Fire - 9-1 (been either 8 or 9 all day)
Papa Clem - 15-1
Pioneerof the Nile - 6-1
Members of the overbet club:
Luv Gov - 25-1
Flying Private - 25-1
Take The Points - 16-1
Tone It Down - 21-1
As my good friend Pat Forde of ESPN.com said "someone unbuckled" on Musket Man. The third place finisher in the Kentucky Derby dropped from 14-1 to 9-1. Someone from trainer Derek Ryan's homebase in New Jersey must have dropped a lot of pesos on the colt.
Rachel Alexandra continues to slowly drift as she now stands at 2-1. At her lowest, she was 6-5 but money has started to spread out more evenly.
Here are the updates on the main contenders:
Big Drama - 10-1
Mine That Bird - 6-1
Friesan Fire - 9-1 (been either 8 or 9 all day)
Papa Clem - 15-1
Pioneerof the Nile - 6-1
Members of the overbet club:
Luv Gov - 25-1
Flying Private - 25-1
Take The Points - 16-1
Tone It Down - 21-1
Preakness Day, 3 p.m.
The sun has finally come out at "Old Hilltop" and it feels like a humid early summer day outside. The rain still so far is staying off to the West of Baltimore so the track could well remain dry for the Preakness Stakes.
The infield crowd continues to be well below normal which is disheartening.
No real big change in the odds with three hours to go.
Rachel Alexandra remains the 9-5 favorite while Derby winner Mine That Bird and Pioneerof the Nile are 6-1.
The value still remains with Musket Man (14-1), Friesan Fire (9-1) and Papa Clem (15-1).
I have yet to hear why the true longshots going in the race are not longshots. Luv Gov was 50-1 in the morning line and is now 22-1. WHY????
Same can be said for Flying Private (50-1 ML, 25-1 now) and Tone It Down (50-1 ML, 20-1 n0w.)
I know people don't believe in Mine That Bird but if you are unsure about the Derby winner, why would you put your money into a horse that ran last in the "Run for the Roses", just won his first race in 10 tries or has never beaten any significant competition in Maryland.
The infield crowd continues to be well below normal which is disheartening.
No real big change in the odds with three hours to go.
Rachel Alexandra remains the 9-5 favorite while Derby winner Mine That Bird and Pioneerof the Nile are 6-1.
The value still remains with Musket Man (14-1), Friesan Fire (9-1) and Papa Clem (15-1).
I have yet to hear why the true longshots going in the race are not longshots. Luv Gov was 50-1 in the morning line and is now 22-1. WHY????
Same can be said for Flying Private (50-1 ML, 25-1 now) and Tone It Down (50-1 ML, 20-1 n0w.)
I know people don't believe in Mine That Bird but if you are unsure about the Derby winner, why would you put your money into a horse that ran last in the "Run for the Roses", just won his first race in 10 tries or has never beaten any significant competition in Maryland.
Preakness Day, 2 p.m.
With less than five hours until the Preakness, have you figured out who you are going to bet?
The superfilly, Rachel Alexandra, is currently at 9-5. That is a high risk, low return bet. She may well be the best horse in the race but since she is starting from the 13 hole which will likely result in a tough trip, those are short odds.
The odd thing about the odds is that no horse is above 24-1. (Flying Private and Terrain) Strange considering that there are a few horses that seem way over their head.
The value horses appear to be Papa Clem (14-1), Big Drama (10-1), Friesan Fire (left, 8-1) and Pioneerof the Nile (6-1).
The "wise guy" looks to be the Todd Pletcher trained Take the Points. The colt was 30-1 in the morning line but is now 14-1.
Oh, and the Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird is 6-1.
The superfilly, Rachel Alexandra, is currently at 9-5. That is a high risk, low return bet. She may well be the best horse in the race but since she is starting from the 13 hole which will likely result in a tough trip, those are short odds.
The odd thing about the odds is that no horse is above 24-1. (Flying Private and Terrain) Strange considering that there are a few horses that seem way over their head.
The value horses appear to be Papa Clem (14-1), Big Drama (10-1), Friesan Fire (left, 8-1) and Pioneerof the Nile (6-1).
The "wise guy" looks to be the Todd Pletcher trained Take the Points. The colt was 30-1 in the morning line but is now 14-1.
Oh, and the Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird is 6-1.
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Tuesday Preakness News
Here is a quick recap of what took place Tuesday on the "Road to Baltimore."
The horses are starting to make their way to Pimlico. Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird left Churchill at 9 a.m. and should arrive at Pimlico sometime before 8 p.m. While Trainer Chip Woolley loaded the horse into his trailer, Bob Baffert wandered over on his pony to take a look.
Also enroute are the D. Wayne Lukas trained duo of Flying Private and Luv Guv and Toyota Blue Grass winner General Quarters. According to Thoroughbred Times, General Quarters' van was involved in a minor accident near Pimlico while attempting to turn into the track. The gray colt was unhurt but looks like the trailer may need a little body work.
After blazing through a work at Pimlico (5/8 mile in :58.20) Tuesday morning, trainer Larry Jones announced Friesan Fire (pictured right) was a definite for the Preakness so he appears to be recovered from the minor injuries suffered during his 18th place finish in the Derby.
A plane from Louisville tomorrow will have an all-star feel to it. Among horses on the plane will be Kentucky Oaks winner Rachel Alexandra, Derby runner-up Pioneerofthe Nile, as well Preakness hopeful Terrain.
On Wednesday is the post position draw for the Preakness. Stay tuned for the latest drama in the Preakness soap area.
(Photos courtesy of Churchill Downs and Maryland Jockey Club.)
The horses are starting to make their way to Pimlico. Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird left Churchill at 9 a.m. and should arrive at Pimlico sometime before 8 p.m. While Trainer Chip Woolley loaded the horse into his trailer, Bob Baffert wandered over on his pony to take a look.
Also enroute are the D. Wayne Lukas trained duo of Flying Private and Luv Guv and Toyota Blue Grass winner General Quarters. According to Thoroughbred Times, General Quarters' van was involved in a minor accident near Pimlico while attempting to turn into the track. The gray colt was unhurt but looks like the trailer may need a little body work.
After blazing through a work at Pimlico (5/8 mile in :58.20) Tuesday morning, trainer Larry Jones announced Friesan Fire (pictured right) was a definite for the Preakness so he appears to be recovered from the minor injuries suffered during his 18th place finish in the Derby.
A plane from Louisville tomorrow will have an all-star feel to it. Among horses on the plane will be Kentucky Oaks winner Rachel Alexandra, Derby runner-up Pioneerofthe Nile, as well Preakness hopeful Terrain.
On Wednesday is the post position draw for the Preakness. Stay tuned for the latest drama in the Preakness soap area.
(Photos courtesy of Churchill Downs and Maryland Jockey Club.)
Saturday, May 2, 2009
Derby Selections
Kentucky Derby Picks -
Ok...now that the talk is over, it's time to pick a winner.
Unfortunately, my initial selection, I Want Revenge came up with a injury this morning and was scratched.
Now, after spending hours looking over all the contenders again, here is who I settled on in finish order:
6) Friesan Fire - With the track still wet and the morning-line favorite out, the race sets up perfectly for him. He should be just off the front end early on, make his move near the final turn and hold off a host of fast closing horses. The win would give trainer Larry Jones his first Derby victory.
15) Dunkirk - Perhaps the most talented horse in the field will benefit from an expected fast pace early on. The colt, was sold for $3.7 million dollars at public auction, will be closing late and if he avoids trouble, will be very tough. Only question will be how he handles the wet track.
16) Pioneerof the Nile - Trainer Bob Baffert has won three Kentucky Derby's and this colt is on a roll after winning four straight. The big question about him is will he handle traditional dirt. He's only run on "artificial dirt" but his parents both loved running at Churchill Downs.
11) Chocolate Candy - Another horse who ran exclusively on "artificial dirt" has shown a lot of promise this year and was second to Pioneerof the Nile in his last start. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, nicknamed the "King of Northern California", will have his horse in mid-pack
Here's one last look at the Kentucky Derby contenders as we countdown to the "Run for the Roses"
3) Mr. Hot Stuff - The little brother of Colonel John will be another horse coming "from the clounds" down the stretch. Will be a huge price.
Others that have question marks but not picking: 2) Musket Man; 5) Hold Me Back; 7) Papa Clem; 12) General Quarters; 19) Desert Party
Ok...now that the talk is over, it's time to pick a winner.
Unfortunately, my initial selection, I Want Revenge came up with a injury this morning and was scratched.
Now, after spending hours looking over all the contenders again, here is who I settled on in finish order:
6) Friesan Fire - With the track still wet and the morning-line favorite out, the race sets up perfectly for him. He should be just off the front end early on, make his move near the final turn and hold off a host of fast closing horses. The win would give trainer Larry Jones his first Derby victory.
15) Dunkirk - Perhaps the most talented horse in the field will benefit from an expected fast pace early on. The colt, was sold for $3.7 million dollars at public auction, will be closing late and if he avoids trouble, will be very tough. Only question will be how he handles the wet track.
16) Pioneerof the Nile - Trainer Bob Baffert has won three Kentucky Derby's and this colt is on a roll after winning four straight. The big question about him is will he handle traditional dirt. He's only run on "artificial dirt" but his parents both loved running at Churchill Downs.
11) Chocolate Candy - Another horse who ran exclusively on "artificial dirt" has shown a lot of promise this year and was second to Pioneerof the Nile in his last start. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, nicknamed the "King of Northern California", will have his horse in mid-pack
Here's one last look at the Kentucky Derby contenders as we countdown to the "Run for the Roses"
3) Mr. Hot Stuff - The little brother of Colonel John will be another horse coming "from the clounds" down the stretch. Will be a huge price.
Others that have question marks but not picking: 2) Musket Man; 5) Hold Me Back; 7) Papa Clem; 12) General Quarters; 19) Desert Party
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Derby Bound Thoughts
Some quick thoughts right before boarding a plane to Louisville:
The forecast for gloomy skies and rain for the next two days will radically alter a lot of the great racing that's on tap. It will be a shame if the track is sloppy on both days as we may not see the best effort of all the horses and/or having horses scratch due to off track conditions.
One of those horses is Zenyatta, the filly who was Horse of the Year runner-up last year. That would be such a shame as it would provide one of the greatest stages for the 5-year-old mare to make her 2009 debut and deprive the fans from seeing a special horse.
If the track is sloppy for the Kentucky Derby, my prediction is that Friesan Fire will become the post-time favorite as he won his last race very impressively in the slop.
After looking at the Ragozin Sheets for the Kentucky Oaks last night, Rachel Alexandra is not the lock I suspected she would have been. Could be a great race with Justwhistledixie.
They are boarding my flight. I am outta here. Next report will be from the Derby City. Doesn't get much better than that!!!
The forecast for gloomy skies and rain for the next two days will radically alter a lot of the great racing that's on tap. It will be a shame if the track is sloppy on both days as we may not see the best effort of all the horses and/or having horses scratch due to off track conditions.
One of those horses is Zenyatta, the filly who was Horse of the Year runner-up last year. That would be such a shame as it would provide one of the greatest stages for the 5-year-old mare to make her 2009 debut and deprive the fans from seeing a special horse.
If the track is sloppy for the Kentucky Derby, my prediction is that Friesan Fire will become the post-time favorite as he won his last race very impressively in the slop.
After looking at the Ragozin Sheets for the Kentucky Oaks last night, Rachel Alexandra is not the lock I suspected she would have been. Could be a great race with Justwhistledixie.
They are boarding my flight. I am outta here. Next report will be from the Derby City. Doesn't get much better than that!!!
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Derby Draw Analysis - Winners & Losers
Even with the late defection of Win Willy due to a leg injury Wednesday morning, the Kentucky Derby field still reached 20 with the late addition of Nowhere to Hide. Now with the Post Position Draw complete, let's take a look at the winners and losers during the draw.
WINNERS
15 - Dunkirk- The highly touted and talented colt will need a lot of breaks to go his way and his starting spot is a good start. The 15 post is great because this is the first gate in the Auxiliary Starting Gate. (The main starting gate holds just 14 horses.) As a result there is a nice space to his left that will give crucial room to maneuver early in the race. He will likely drop back early but it's good to have a little cushion right after the start.
16 - Pioneerof the Nile - Leave it to three-time Derby winning trainer Bob Baffert to put his colt (right) in spot that been successful over the last few years. As Dunkirk is likely to take advantage of the extra space to his left, Pioneer should benefit from that and stay outside and away from a lot of the traditional bumping that goes on at the start of the race. The key will be not getting pushed to far outside on the first turn.
6 - Friesan Fire - Although it isn't a tremendous victory for him, trainer Larry Jones put his horse in a pretty solid starting position. With his tactical speed, the colt should be able to get near the early lead and settle in a good spot to make his run around the far turn. The only danger for him could be is if he is squeezed by another horse to his inside. With the forecast for rain and his love for a sloppy track, this spot could win up being a huge plus in the end.
LOSERS
19 - Desert Party - A horse that appeared to be powerhouse owner Godolphin's best shot to win the Derby, drew the "short straw" by having a late selection. The result left him in a slot that no horse has won from in the 135-year history of the Derby. Since Desert Party likes to be near the lead, jockey Ramon Dominguez will have a tough decision to make: push his horse early to be near the lead and potentially use up some "gas" or take a chance in not pushing the pedal but could be pushed out wide on the first turn.
1 - West Side Bernie - A lot of times, being on the rail, in the No. 1 starting gate is a good thing. In the Derby, it's usually a death knell. Only one horse (Ferdinand, 1986) in the last 46 years has won for this spot. The inside spot will probably make West Side Bernie get near the lead early which is contrary to his running style of dropping back. If he doesn't move up early, he could get shut off and lose all chance early on.
20 - Flying Private - D. Wayne Lukas (right), a Hall of Famer and four-time Derby winning trainer, has been a master of getting a horse ready for a big race. But this 50-1 shot already had his work cut out for him but drawing the outside post might have sealed his fate. Only Big Brown, the 2008 Derby winner, has won from the starting position, and this horse is no Big Brown. He will be pushed outside on both turns which will likely use up most of his energy.
CAUTION
13 - I Want Revenge - Although the 3-1 Derby favorite isn't in a bad starting position, he has the potential of getting squeezed by General Quarters and Atomic Rain. The big advantage for I Want Revenge is that he overcame plenty of trouble in the Wood Memorial and has a very versatile running style. Young jockey Joe Talamo will be tested once again.
Photos courtesy of Eclipse Sports Wire
WINNERS
15 - Dunkirk- The highly touted and talented colt will need a lot of breaks to go his way and his starting spot is a good start. The 15 post is great because this is the first gate in the Auxiliary Starting Gate. (The main starting gate holds just 14 horses.) As a result there is a nice space to his left that will give crucial room to maneuver early in the race. He will likely drop back early but it's good to have a little cushion right after the start.
16 - Pioneerof the Nile - Leave it to three-time Derby winning trainer Bob Baffert to put his colt (right) in spot that been successful over the last few years. As Dunkirk is likely to take advantage of the extra space to his left, Pioneer should benefit from that and stay outside and away from a lot of the traditional bumping that goes on at the start of the race. The key will be not getting pushed to far outside on the first turn.
6 - Friesan Fire - Although it isn't a tremendous victory for him, trainer Larry Jones put his horse in a pretty solid starting position. With his tactical speed, the colt should be able to get near the early lead and settle in a good spot to make his run around the far turn. The only danger for him could be is if he is squeezed by another horse to his inside. With the forecast for rain and his love for a sloppy track, this spot could win up being a huge plus in the end.
LOSERS
19 - Desert Party - A horse that appeared to be powerhouse owner Godolphin's best shot to win the Derby, drew the "short straw" by having a late selection. The result left him in a slot that no horse has won from in the 135-year history of the Derby. Since Desert Party likes to be near the lead, jockey Ramon Dominguez will have a tough decision to make: push his horse early to be near the lead and potentially use up some "gas" or take a chance in not pushing the pedal but could be pushed out wide on the first turn.
1 - West Side Bernie - A lot of times, being on the rail, in the No. 1 starting gate is a good thing. In the Derby, it's usually a death knell. Only one horse (Ferdinand, 1986) in the last 46 years has won for this spot. The inside spot will probably make West Side Bernie get near the lead early which is contrary to his running style of dropping back. If he doesn't move up early, he could get shut off and lose all chance early on.
20 - Flying Private - D. Wayne Lukas (right), a Hall of Famer and four-time Derby winning trainer, has been a master of getting a horse ready for a big race. But this 50-1 shot already had his work cut out for him but drawing the outside post might have sealed his fate. Only Big Brown, the 2008 Derby winner, has won from the starting position, and this horse is no Big Brown. He will be pushed outside on both turns which will likely use up most of his energy.
CAUTION
13 - I Want Revenge - Although the 3-1 Derby favorite isn't in a bad starting position, he has the potential of getting squeezed by General Quarters and Atomic Rain. The big advantage for I Want Revenge is that he overcame plenty of trouble in the Wood Memorial and has a very versatile running style. Young jockey Joe Talamo will be tested once again.
Photos courtesy of Eclipse Sports Wire
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Tuesday Morning News
So much for being done with Derby horses being injured.
Square Eddie, one of the better 2-year-olds from last year, was pulled from the Kentucky Derby by trainer Doug O'Neill this morning after re-aggravating a shin injury that kept him on the sidelines most of the winter. The latest ailment doesn't appear to be serious but it certainly ends his hope for wearing roses on Saturday.
The workout of the morning came from Wood Memorial winner and likely Derby favorite I Want Revenge. With his regular jockey (and now TV star) Joe Talamo aboard, the son of Stephen Got Even, worked a half mile in :47.20 (fractional splits - 11.40 (1/8 mile), 23.20 (1/4 mile), 35 2/5 (3/8 mile) and finished out the work going 5/8 mile in 1:00. 80.
Most of the attention over the past few days had shifted away from I Want Revenge to other major contenders like Friesan Fire, Dunkirk and Pioneerof the Nile. But after his work on Tuesday morning, that should erase a lot of doubts if the Jeff Mullins-trained colt can handle the Churchill Downs surface.
Let's hope that Mullins' troubles are behind him for now and the attention does stay focused on the horse the rest of the week.
The other big news on Tuesday is that we will have the field for the Kentucky Oaks, the sister race to the Derby. Rachel Alexandra, who has been nearly untouchable this year, will be the prohibitive favorite.
There are also some great races slated for the race preceding the Oaks and we'll dive more into those later.
Square Eddie, one of the better 2-year-olds from last year, was pulled from the Kentucky Derby by trainer Doug O'Neill this morning after re-aggravating a shin injury that kept him on the sidelines most of the winter. The latest ailment doesn't appear to be serious but it certainly ends his hope for wearing roses on Saturday.
The workout of the morning came from Wood Memorial winner and likely Derby favorite I Want Revenge. With his regular jockey (and now TV star) Joe Talamo aboard, the son of Stephen Got Even, worked a half mile in :47.20 (fractional splits - 11.40 (1/8 mile), 23.20 (1/4 mile), 35 2/5 (3/8 mile) and finished out the work going 5/8 mile in 1:00. 80.
Most of the attention over the past few days had shifted away from I Want Revenge to other major contenders like Friesan Fire, Dunkirk and Pioneerof the Nile. But after his work on Tuesday morning, that should erase a lot of doubts if the Jeff Mullins-trained colt can handle the Churchill Downs surface.
Let's hope that Mullins' troubles are behind him for now and the attention does stay focused on the horse the rest of the week.
The other big news on Tuesday is that we will have the field for the Kentucky Oaks, the sister race to the Derby. Rachel Alexandra, who has been nearly untouchable this year, will be the prohibitive favorite.
There are also some great races slated for the race preceding the Oaks and we'll dive more into those later.
Monday, April 27, 2009
Quality Road OUT & Other Notes
The inevitable finally happened on Monday morning as Quality Road was officially taken out of the consideration for the Kentucky Derby.
Trainer Jimmy Jerkens did the right thing and lived up to his word by ending his Derby dream. The horse was supposed to work in New York and board a plane for Louisville on Tuesday but the horse was a little sore this morning and that was the final nail in his Derby coffin.
Jerkens indicated that the Preakness and Belmont are still possible. The Preakness might a great race for him as it is a little shorter than the Derby and horses with tactical speed seem to thrive in the Preakness.
Other Monday headlines included an extremely busy morning with final workouts with one horse blazing down the stretch.
Friesan Fire - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) :57.80 (Fastest of 26 horses)
The remarkable thing about this workout is that was about a second and a half faster than everyone else. At first blush, I am concerned that this fast work might take something out of the horse. But two things there are in Friesan Fire's favor: 1) He hasn't run since March 14 so a fast workout is something he probably needed. 2) Hard Spun had a similarly fast workout and he seemed just fine come Derby Day - he ran 2nd.
Other Workouts (trainer):
Advice (Todd Pletcher) - 4 furlongs (1/2 mile) 47.20 (3rd of 26 horses)
Chocolate Candy (Jerry Hollendorfer) - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) :59.20 (2nd of 26 horses)
Flying Private (D. Wayne Lukas) - 4 furlongs (1/2 mile) 47.40 (4th of 26 horses)
Join in the Dance (Todd Pletcher) - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) 1:00.20 (5th of 26 horses)
Mine That Bird (Bennie Woolley) - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) 1:02 (19th of 26 horses)
Pioneerof the Nile (Bob Baffert) - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) 1:01 (11th of 26 horses)
Take the Points (Todd Pletcher) - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) 1:00.20 (5th of 26 horses)
Win Willy (McLean Robertson) - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) 1:02.40 (20th of 26 horses)
Only one major horse left to work - Wood Memorial winner I Want Revenge.
Trainer Jimmy Jerkens did the right thing and lived up to his word by ending his Derby dream. The horse was supposed to work in New York and board a plane for Louisville on Tuesday but the horse was a little sore this morning and that was the final nail in his Derby coffin.
Jerkens indicated that the Preakness and Belmont are still possible. The Preakness might a great race for him as it is a little shorter than the Derby and horses with tactical speed seem to thrive in the Preakness.
Other Monday headlines included an extremely busy morning with final workouts with one horse blazing down the stretch.
Friesan Fire - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) :57.80 (Fastest of 26 horses)
The remarkable thing about this workout is that was about a second and a half faster than everyone else. At first blush, I am concerned that this fast work might take something out of the horse. But two things there are in Friesan Fire's favor: 1) He hasn't run since March 14 so a fast workout is something he probably needed. 2) Hard Spun had a similarly fast workout and he seemed just fine come Derby Day - he ran 2nd.
Other Workouts (trainer):
Advice (Todd Pletcher) - 4 furlongs (1/2 mile) 47.20 (3rd of 26 horses)
Chocolate Candy (Jerry Hollendorfer) - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) :59.20 (2nd of 26 horses)
Flying Private (D. Wayne Lukas) - 4 furlongs (1/2 mile) 47.40 (4th of 26 horses)
Join in the Dance (Todd Pletcher) - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) 1:00.20 (5th of 26 horses)
Mine That Bird (Bennie Woolley) - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) 1:02 (19th of 26 horses)
Pioneerof the Nile (Bob Baffert) - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) 1:01 (11th of 26 horses)
Take the Points (Todd Pletcher) - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) 1:00.20 (5th of 26 horses)
Win Willy (McLean Robertson) - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) 1:02.40 (20th of 26 horses)
Only one major horse left to work - Wood Memorial winner I Want Revenge.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Analyzing the Top Contenders
With a little over two weeks before the 135th Kentucky Derby, I thought I would take a quick look at some of the top contenders are expected to run Churchill Downs.
And, of course, just when you think you've got the field of 20 horses for the Derby all figured out, something comes out of nowhere to change it.
Joining the Derby fray on Thursday was Flat Out who was 6th in the Arkansas Derby but currently is 28th on the Graded Stakes Earnings list. Bailing on the Derby was Mafaaz, the European based horse that flopped in the Toyota Blue Grass on Saturday. The owners also moved the horse to the barn of NY-based trainer Kiaran McLaughlin so perhaps a run in the Belmont Stakes?
Now, here's a look in earnings order (as well as their record on "conventional" dirt) at the leading contenders for the "Run for the Roses":
(record - starts-wins-second-third)
Regal Ransom (Overall Record 5-2-2-0, "Real Dirt" record 1-1-0-0) -
One of two Godolphin owned horses in the Derby. The tough part for them is they run against suspect competition in Dubai and they've never come close to winning the Derby. Don't think this one will be the one to change that.
Pioneerof the Nile (Overall Record 8-5-0-1, "Real Dirt" record 0-0-0-0) -
The best from California and the horses from the West Coast have been doing great when they've come East (see I Want Revenge and Papa Clem.) Won four straight since moving to trainer Bob Baffert in the winter. Never run on "conventional" dirt but his parents both ran well at Churchill Downs. A major contender and trained by a guy who has won three Derbys. Not bad.
Square Eddie (Overall Record 7-2-3-1, "Real Dirt" record 0-0-0-0) -
Former European took the world by storm when he won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in October but was injured in January and presumed out of the Derby. Low and behold, he's back and running this weekend at Keeneland. Could be a lot to ask him to win the Derby with just one race in the last 3 1/2 months.
I Want Revenge (Overall Record 8-3-1-4, "Real Dirt" record 2-2-0-0) -
The "hot" horse on the Derby trail. His two East Coast races have been super impressive and has taken a liking to life away from the artificial dirt. If his star crossed trainer, Jeff Mullins, can stay out of trouble (which has been difficult since winning the Gotham), he is the horse to beat.
Papa Clem (Overall Record 6-2-2-0, "Real Dirt" record 2-1-1-0) -
Yet another West Coast who become a major contender. He won the Arkansas Derby last weekend and was narrowly beaten by Pioneerof the Nile in February. Big problem though is not sure he wants to go the Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles.
Desert Party (Overall Record 6-4-1-0, "Real Dirt" record 2-1-0-0) -
The best of the Middle East horses was beaten by stablemate Regal Ransom last time. The $2.1 million auction purchase has loads of talent and is their owners' best chance to win the Derby in years but the Middle East to US experiment has been a failure to date. Don't think he wins but maybe somewhere in the Top 5.
Quality Road (Overall Record 4-3-1-0, "Real Dirt" Record 4-3-1-0) -
RED FLAG WARNING - Was a major contender after winning the Florida Derby last month but a quarter crack was found in his foot last week. The crack usually is painful but had a nice workout this week in New York. Watch this very carefully.
General Quarters (Overall Record 11-3-3-1, "Real Dirt" Record 7-2-2-1)
By far the best story of the Kentucky Derby. Owned and trained by a 75-year-old former high school principal with just one horse in his stable, the gray colt (right) has won two of his last three including the Blue Grass Stakes. Can he overcome the curse of winning the Blue Grass? Only two horses in the last 36 years have won both (Strike the Gold, 1991 & Spectacular Bid. 1979).
Friesan Fire (Overall Record 7-4-1-1, "Real Dirt" Record 7-4-1-1)
On paper, he looks like one of the best horses in the race but when you a look a little closer, there are a couple of concerns. Chief among them is that he has not run since March 14 and that gives him seven weeks between starts. No horse has won the Derby with that much time between races since Needles in 1956. The other concern is that his best race came on a wet track. Watch how he trains the next two weeks. (This is trainer Larry Jones only horse left after Old Fashioned retired this week.)
Musket Man (Overall Record 6-5-0-1, "Real Dirt" Record 6-5-0-1)
He might be the most underrated horse in the field considering his lofty record. He beat a poor field in the Illinois Derby but he defeated General Quarters in the Tampa Bay Derby last month. The big concern is his bloodlines as there doesn't appear to be stamina in his family.
Hold Me Back (Overall Record 5-3-0-1, "Real Dirt" Record 1-0-0-0)
Another horse with a very nice record but appears to be an "artificial" dirt specialist. His only real dirt race was a distance fifth place finish last November. He has the benefit of trainer Bill Mott, one of the all-time best, but he needs to prove he can duplicate his artificial dirt form on the Churchill Downs surface.
West Side Bernie (Overall Record 7-2-2-1, "Real Dirt" Record 4-1-2-1)
A hard trying horse that does not have a marquee win but always seems to give an honest effort each time. Another big plus for him is that he has never run a race shorter than 1 mile and 70 yards which could prove to be beneficial when running 1 1/4 miles in the Derby. Could be a nice longshot to run second or third.
Chocolate Candy (Overall Record 9-4-2-1, "Real Dirt" Record 0-0-0-0)
WISE GUY ALERT - After knocking off the best 3-year-olds in Northern California, the horse, owned by Sid & Jenny Craig, ran a close second to Pioneerof the Nile in early April. He is definitely one to watch but will probably be a "wise guy" horse because of good runner-up finish last time. As a result, he might over bet.
Dunkirk (Overall Record 3-2-1-0, "Real Dirt" Record 3-2-1-0)
WISE GUY ALERT - The most expensive and perhaps most talented horse in the field. His regal breeding (his mom, Secret Status, won the Kentucky Oaks) fetched $3.7 million at public auction and could be the next big star in racing. But, he only has three lifetime starts and only one horse in Derby history has won the "Run for the Roses" with just three outings (Regret, 1915). Curlin tried it a couple of years ago and ran third. Be careful if you bet him.
All photos courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire
And, of course, just when you think you've got the field of 20 horses for the Derby all figured out, something comes out of nowhere to change it.
Joining the Derby fray on Thursday was Flat Out who was 6th in the Arkansas Derby but currently is 28th on the Graded Stakes Earnings list. Bailing on the Derby was Mafaaz, the European based horse that flopped in the Toyota Blue Grass on Saturday. The owners also moved the horse to the barn of NY-based trainer Kiaran McLaughlin so perhaps a run in the Belmont Stakes?
Now, here's a look in earnings order (as well as their record on "conventional" dirt) at the leading contenders for the "Run for the Roses":
(record - starts-wins-second-third)
Regal Ransom (Overall Record 5-2-2-0, "Real Dirt" record 1-1-0-0) -
One of two Godolphin owned horses in the Derby. The tough part for them is they run against suspect competition in Dubai and they've never come close to winning the Derby. Don't think this one will be the one to change that.
Pioneerof the Nile (Overall Record 8-5-0-1, "Real Dirt" record 0-0-0-0) -
The best from California and the horses from the West Coast have been doing great when they've come East (see I Want Revenge and Papa Clem.) Won four straight since moving to trainer Bob Baffert in the winter. Never run on "conventional" dirt but his parents both ran well at Churchill Downs. A major contender and trained by a guy who has won three Derbys. Not bad.
Square Eddie (Overall Record 7-2-3-1, "Real Dirt" record 0-0-0-0) -
Former European took the world by storm when he won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in October but was injured in January and presumed out of the Derby. Low and behold, he's back and running this weekend at Keeneland. Could be a lot to ask him to win the Derby with just one race in the last 3 1/2 months.
I Want Revenge (Overall Record 8-3-1-4, "Real Dirt" record 2-2-0-0) -
The "hot" horse on the Derby trail. His two East Coast races have been super impressive and has taken a liking to life away from the artificial dirt. If his star crossed trainer, Jeff Mullins, can stay out of trouble (which has been difficult since winning the Gotham), he is the horse to beat.
Papa Clem (Overall Record 6-2-2-0, "Real Dirt" record 2-1-1-0) -
Yet another West Coast who become a major contender. He won the Arkansas Derby last weekend and was narrowly beaten by Pioneerof the Nile in February. Big problem though is not sure he wants to go the Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles.
Desert Party (Overall Record 6-4-1-0, "Real Dirt" record 2-1-0-0) -
The best of the Middle East horses was beaten by stablemate Regal Ransom last time. The $2.1 million auction purchase has loads of talent and is their owners' best chance to win the Derby in years but the Middle East to US experiment has been a failure to date. Don't think he wins but maybe somewhere in the Top 5.
Quality Road (Overall Record 4-3-1-0, "Real Dirt" Record 4-3-1-0) -
RED FLAG WARNING - Was a major contender after winning the Florida Derby last month but a quarter crack was found in his foot last week. The crack usually is painful but had a nice workout this week in New York. Watch this very carefully.
General Quarters (Overall Record 11-3-3-1, "Real Dirt" Record 7-2-2-1)
By far the best story of the Kentucky Derby. Owned and trained by a 75-year-old former high school principal with just one horse in his stable, the gray colt (right) has won two of his last three including the Blue Grass Stakes. Can he overcome the curse of winning the Blue Grass? Only two horses in the last 36 years have won both (Strike the Gold, 1991 & Spectacular Bid. 1979).
Friesan Fire (Overall Record 7-4-1-1, "Real Dirt" Record 7-4-1-1)
On paper, he looks like one of the best horses in the race but when you a look a little closer, there are a couple of concerns. Chief among them is that he has not run since March 14 and that gives him seven weeks between starts. No horse has won the Derby with that much time between races since Needles in 1956. The other concern is that his best race came on a wet track. Watch how he trains the next two weeks. (This is trainer Larry Jones only horse left after Old Fashioned retired this week.)
Musket Man (Overall Record 6-5-0-1, "Real Dirt" Record 6-5-0-1)
He might be the most underrated horse in the field considering his lofty record. He beat a poor field in the Illinois Derby but he defeated General Quarters in the Tampa Bay Derby last month. The big concern is his bloodlines as there doesn't appear to be stamina in his family.
Hold Me Back (Overall Record 5-3-0-1, "Real Dirt" Record 1-0-0-0)
Another horse with a very nice record but appears to be an "artificial" dirt specialist. His only real dirt race was a distance fifth place finish last November. He has the benefit of trainer Bill Mott, one of the all-time best, but he needs to prove he can duplicate his artificial dirt form on the Churchill Downs surface.
West Side Bernie (Overall Record 7-2-2-1, "Real Dirt" Record 4-1-2-1)
A hard trying horse that does not have a marquee win but always seems to give an honest effort each time. Another big plus for him is that he has never run a race shorter than 1 mile and 70 yards which could prove to be beneficial when running 1 1/4 miles in the Derby. Could be a nice longshot to run second or third.
Chocolate Candy (Overall Record 9-4-2-1, "Real Dirt" Record 0-0-0-0)
WISE GUY ALERT - After knocking off the best 3-year-olds in Northern California, the horse, owned by Sid & Jenny Craig, ran a close second to Pioneerof the Nile in early April. He is definitely one to watch but will probably be a "wise guy" horse because of good runner-up finish last time. As a result, he might over bet.
Dunkirk (Overall Record 3-2-1-0, "Real Dirt" Record 3-2-1-0)
WISE GUY ALERT - The most expensive and perhaps most talented horse in the field. His regal breeding (his mom, Secret Status, won the Kentucky Oaks) fetched $3.7 million at public auction and could be the next big star in racing. But, he only has three lifetime starts and only one horse in Derby history has won the "Run for the Roses" with just three outings (Regret, 1915). Curlin tried it a couple of years ago and ran third. Be careful if you bet him.
All photos courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire
Sunday, April 12, 2009
Tough Break for Larry Jones
Trainer Larry Jones, who earlier this year had two of the top contenders for the Kentucky Derby, lost one of his stars Saturday night as Old Fashioned suffered a fractured right knee according to the Daily Racing Form.
The DRF story reported that the horse is expected to be sent to Lexington, Kentucky on Monday for further evaluation.
If he does not race again, Old Fashioned finished with an impressive record of four wins and two second place finishes in six starts. He ran second in his last two races, including Saturday's tough loss in the Arkansas Derby to Papa Clem.
It's a shame that Larry Jones lost a horse that showed so much promise just a few weeks ago. Jones is one of the "good guys" in the sport and in what is supposed to have been his final year as a trainer, winning the Kentucky Derby would be a fitting race to add to his resume.
His lone Derby hopeful is now Friesan Fire who won the Louisiana Derby on March 14. The horse will not race again until the Derby which means he will attempt to become the first horse since Needles (1956) to win the "Run for the Roses" off a 7-week layoff.
The DRF story reported that the horse is expected to be sent to Lexington, Kentucky on Monday for further evaluation.
If he does not race again, Old Fashioned finished with an impressive record of four wins and two second place finishes in six starts. He ran second in his last two races, including Saturday's tough loss in the Arkansas Derby to Papa Clem.
It's a shame that Larry Jones lost a horse that showed so much promise just a few weeks ago. Jones is one of the "good guys" in the sport and in what is supposed to have been his final year as a trainer, winning the Kentucky Derby would be a fitting race to add to his resume.
His lone Derby hopeful is now Friesan Fire who won the Louisiana Derby on March 14. The horse will not race again until the Derby which means he will attempt to become the first horse since Needles (1956) to win the "Run for the Roses" off a 7-week layoff.
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