The Filly In Front

Havre de Grace cruising to win in Belmont's Beldame

In what has been a very up and down year with racing’s elite horses, we may have finally seen the best rise to the top this past weekend but we still don’t have a unequivocal “horse to beat.”

A lot of attention, and justifiably so, will be focused on Havre de Grace (right) who not only has emerged as the best filly in the country but perhaps the best horse. She left little doubt about who the top female is after cruising to an easy win in Saturday’s Beldame at Belmont Park. That victory was on the heels of her breakout performance on Labor Day Weekend when she beat males in Saratoga’s Woodward Handicap.

Her trainer, Larry Jones, indicated her next race will be in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and with a victory would lock up Horse of the Year. She would become the third female in a row to capture that title, marking a first in racing.

With her resume and the fact that a girl is racing against the boys, she will likely be the favorite for the Classic at Churchill Downs next month.

Another former star that has returned to some semblance of glory is 2-year-old champion Uncle Mo.  He was all set to be racing’s next “big thing” but a mysterious liver infection knocked him out of the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown. The colt didn’t return to the races until late August when he finished second but  he rocketed to an impressive victory in the Kelso at Belmont in a very quick final time.

You can certainly make a case, as some have, that Uncle Mo and his late resurgence will make him the favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. There is no question that he does have more mainstream name recognition than all of his potential competitors but it’s hard to see a horse who has yet to beat any of the top caliber athletes become the betting choice next month.

Another horse that will likely take significant money at the betting windows include Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Flat Out (left) who has been finished only worse than second once all year. But, that off the board finish came at Churchill Downs in the June’s Stephen Foster Handicap. What could be more troubling is that he is 0-for-2 at Churchill.

Also Uncle Mo’s stablemate, Stay Thirsty, has improved dramatically since his 12^th place finish in the Kentucky Derby. He has racked up wins in the Jim Dandy and Travers and will need to prove to everyone that he can run well and win outside of New York.

The top two horses from the West Coast will be Acclamation and Game on Dude. Both have had up and down years but Acclamation got white hot during the summer as he reeled off four wins in a row including the Pacific Classic. Game on Dude, from the barn of trainer Bob Baffert, has two big wins in ’11 including last weekends Goodwood and the Santa Anita Handicap back in March.

Who will be favored for the Classic will be an interesting story to watch but all signs point to the hottest girl in the country by the name Havre de Grace.

Tuesday Preakness News

Here is a quick recap of what took place Tuesday on the "Road to Baltimore."

The horses are starting to make their way to Pimlico. Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird left Churchill at 9 a.m. and should arrive at Pimlico sometime before 8 p.m. While Trainer Chip Woolley loaded the horse into his trailer, Bob Baffert wandered over on his pony to take a look.

Also enroute are the D. Wayne Lukas trained duo of Flying Private and Luv Guv and Toyota Blue Grass winner General Quarters. According to Thoroughbred Times, General Quarters' van was involved in a minor accident near Pimlico while attempting to turn into the track. The gray colt was unhurt but looks like the trailer may need a little body work.

After blazing through a work at Pimlico (5/8 mile in :58.20) Tuesday morning, trainer Larry Jones announced Friesan Fire (pictured right) was a definite for the Preakness so he appears to be recovered from the minor injuries suffered during his 18th place finish in the Derby.

A plane from Louisville tomorrow will have an all-star feel to it. Among horses on the plane will be Kentucky Oaks winner Rachel Alexandra, Derby runner-up Pioneerofthe Nile, as well Preakness hopeful Terrain.

On Wednesday is the post position draw for the Preakness. Stay tuned for the latest drama in the Preakness soap area.

(Photos courtesy of Churchill Downs and Maryland Jockey Club.)

Derby Selections

Kentucky Derby Picks -

Ok...now that the talk is over, it's time to pick a winner.

Unfortunately, my initial selection, I Want Revenge came up with a injury this morning and was scratched.

Now, after spending hours looking over all the contenders again, here is who I settled on in finish order:

6) Friesan Fire - With the track still wet and the morning-line favorite out, the race sets up perfectly for him. He should be just off the front end early on, make his move near the final turn and hold off a host of fast closing horses. The win would give trainer Larry Jones his first Derby victory.

15) Dunkirk - Perhaps the most talented horse in the field will benefit from an expected fast pace early on. The colt, was sold for $3.7 million dollars at public auction, will be closing late and if he avoids trouble, will be very tough. Only question will be how he handles the wet track.

16) Pioneerof the Nile - Trainer Bob Baffert has won three Kentucky Derby's and this colt is on a roll after winning four straight. The big question about him is will he handle traditional dirt. He's only run on "artificial dirt" but his parents both loved running at Churchill Downs.

11) Chocolate Candy - Another horse who ran exclusively on "artificial dirt" has shown a lot of promise this year and was second to Pioneerof the Nile in his last start. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, nicknamed the "King of Northern California", will have his horse in mid-pack
Here's one last look at the Kentucky Derby contenders as we countdown to the "Run for the Roses"

3) Mr. Hot Stuff - The little brother of Colonel John will be another horse coming "from the clounds" down the stretch. Will be a huge price.

Others that have question marks but not picking: 2) Musket Man; 5) Hold Me Back; 7) Papa Clem; 12) General Quarters; 19) Desert Party

Tough Break for Larry Jones

Trainer Larry Jones, who earlier this year had two of the top contenders for the Kentucky Derby, lost one of his stars Saturday night as Old Fashioned suffered a fractured right knee according to the Daily Racing Form.

The DRF story reported that the horse is expected to be sent to Lexington, Kentucky on Monday for further evaluation.

If he does not race again, Old Fashioned finished with an impressive record of four wins and two second place finishes in six starts. He ran second in his last two races, including Saturday's tough loss in the Arkansas Derby to Papa Clem.

It's a shame that Larry Jones lost a horse that showed so much promise just a few weeks ago. Jones is one of the "good guys" in the sport and in what is supposed to have been his final year as a trainer, winning the Kentucky Derby would be a fitting race to add to his resume.

His lone Derby hopeful is now Friesan Fire who won the Louisiana Derby on March 14. The horse will not race again until the Derby which means he will attempt to become the first horse since Needles (1956) to win the "Run for the Roses" off a 7-week layoff.

Many Questions but any answers?

As the "Road to the Kentucky Derby" winds down, we have a solid group of five or six favorites led by Wood Memorial winner I Want Revenge. But will today's two major prep races, the Toyota Blue Grass and the Arkansas Derby help clear up the rest of potential field for the Derby?

The Blue Grass has always been good barometer of who is going to win the Kentucky Derby. The race has produced 23 winners but the caveat is that only two winners of the Blue Grass in the past 37 years have gone on to win the "Run for the Roses." It is important to note that Street Sense (2nd, 2007) and Thunder Gulch (1995, 4th) have gone on to the win Derby despite not winning the Blue Grass in the last 14 years.

Fast forward to this afternoon and is there a Derby winner amongst the field of 11? Hold Me Back is the legitimate early favorite as he has won three of four starts and never lost on the "artificial" dirt known as Polytrack. Keeneland has that same type of surface. But even if Hold Me Back wins today, does that make him a legitimate contender for the Derby?

Then, what do you with the horses who don't win the Blue Grass? A lot of them have an built-in excuse if they don't like the Polytrack.

In the Arkansas Derby, trainer Larry Jones tries to get Old Fashioned back into the winners' circle after his defeat at the hands of 56-1 longshot Win Willy. If Old Fashioned wins, then he jumps back into the uppper echelon of Derby contenders.

Jumping back into the Derby picture yesterday was Square Eddie. He was dismissed as a candidate for the Derby in January when he was injured but is expected to return to the races next Saturday at Keeneland in the Lexington Stakes, the final Derby prep.

So even though last week, it looked like we settled a solid top five or six horses for the Derby, today can muddy the waters quite a bit.