Preakness Analysis/Selections

With less than an hour before post-time, here's a quick look at the field and then selections:

1) Big Drama - Off since late March, the colt will have little choice to go out and push the early pace. He seems to have loads of talent and setting the pace could help him. Question is does he want to go the Preakness distance of 1 3/16 miles.

2) Mine That Bird - The winner of the Kentucky Derby has "flown under the radar" as much as a Derby winner could. New jockey Mike Smith doesn't necessarily help the horse but he will need luck on his side to win again and the track will be fast.

3) Musket Man - One of the blue collar horses in the field. He just runs hard every time as he has won 5 of 7 starts. His third place finish in the Derby could have been better if not for being bumped down the stretch. He is dangerous here.

4) Luv Gov - One question for trainer D. Wayne Lukas - What is this horse doing here? Just won his first career race last time after failing in his first nine tries. No chance here.

5) Friesan Fire - The Derby favorite stepped on his own foot and ran next to last. He came back with a strong workout at Pimlico this week and seems to be healthy. If he's 100 percent, very dangerous at a nice price.

6) Terrain - One of the true closers of the fields but he the Belmont might be better suited for him as it's a longer race. Very well bred and certainly will put his late run in.

7) Papa Clem - Another blue collar horse who also had a tough stretch run while finishing fourth in the Derby. He should be in good position during the running of the Preakness and should be in the thick of it down the stretch.

8) General Quarters - Still one of the best stories of the year for owner-trainer Tom McCarthy and his single horse stable. You can forgive his bad Derby performance but you have to wonder if going this far might be a little too much for him.

9) Pioneerof the Nile - The Derby runner-up has trained great for Bob Baffert and will be a huge threat again today. His Dad won the Belmont in 2003 so distance should not be an issue but needs to avoid getting floating wide on the both turns.

10) Flying Private - This horse isn't as bad as Luv Gov but he appears a little bit overmatched here.

11) Take the Points - Off since running fourth to Pioneerof the Nile at Santa Anita on April 4, trainer Todd Pletcher bypassed the Derby for this race. Jockey Edgar Prado is a master in bgi races and is a perfect 2-for-2 on him. But being outside is a concern.

12) Tone It Down - The local horse, who picked up Hall 0f Famer Kent Desormeaux, will be near the front all the way but appears overmatched.

13) Rachel Alexandra - The super filly comes in with high expectations and after her Kentucky Oaks blowout victory, it's warranted. Jockey Calvin Borel needs to avoid getting caught far outside on both turns. Her talented is unquestioned but running in the Preakness is a whole different story than the Oaks. Hard to pull against her but she will need be 100% to win here.

My picks:

5) Friesan Fire
7) Papa Clem
13) Rachel Alexandra
9) Pioneerof the Nile