Kentucky Oaks Breakdown

On a spectacular day at Churchill Downs, it promises to be one of the more exciting Kentucky Oaks Days on record. We will see Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra look to regain her glory in the La Troienne and then, four hours later, the Fillies will run for the Lillies.

A full field of 14 will run in the Kentucky Oaks and here's a breakdown of the field.

#1 It's Tea Time (Career Record - 3-1-2-0) - The inexperienced filly ran great in Keeneland's Ashland as she was narrowly beaten by fellow Oaks competitor Evening Jewel. She's a talented horse but the big question about her is will she handle dirt as her races have only been on turf and polytrack.

#2 Jody Slew (Career Record - 10-4-0-3) - The daughter of Slew City Slew has been tough to figure out. She started of her three-year-old season with two straight wins but then threw in a clunker last time with a seventh place finish in the Fair Grounds Oaks. She will need her best effort to have any chance here.

#3 Quiet Temper (Career Record - 8-3-4-0) - The Dale Romans trained filly seems to be getting better with each this year. She won the Fair Grounds Oaks last time and the fact that she was able to stay behind the speed. If she does that again today, she'll have a great chance.

#4 Age of Humor (Career Record - 5-2-2-1) - This is another filly that is getting a little better with each start but she will need to improve a lot to be a factor today. She finished second last time at Turfway Park but was a soundly beaten third behind Jody Slew and Quiet Temper in the Silverbulletday.

#5 Blind Luck (Career Record - 9-6-1-2) - Trained by Northern California kingpin Jerry Hollendorfer, she is a deserving favorite. Her last start was a very impressive win in the Fantasy at Oaklawn Park and that race gave her valuable experience on the dirt. If she repeats that performance, she will be tough to beat.

#6 Beautician (Career Record - 8-1-4-0) - Her last place finish in Ashland at Keeneland a month ago is a bit of a concern. You could just simply write the race off because it was Polytrack but you never like seeing a horse enter the biggest race of her life off such a bad effort. She does have one win at Churchill Downs and does prefer dirt to the artificial kind.

#7 Crisp (Career Record - 5-3-0-1) - Off since early March, the John Sadler trained filly has been one of the best in Southern California. Her only subpar effort was a fourth place finish to Blind Luck and Evening Jewel in mid February. She should laying just behind the early speed and, if she likes the dirt, will be a major factor.

#8 Tidal Pool (Career Record - 10-3-2-1) - Her running style will be crucial for her today. In her last race, the Fantasy, she went right to the lead but couldn't hold off Blind Luck. With other speed horses in the Oaks, she would be better suited by dropping back a bit. Jockey Calvin Borel is in the saddle which should be an added benefit.

#9 Bella Diamante (Career Record - 7-2-3-0) - The daughter of Lost Soldier has never fared well against the quality of this field and would appear to be up against it. If you are looking for a positive, she finished second to Quiet Temper last year.

#10 Champagne d'Oro (Career Record - 8-1-2-1) - She will be the speed of the race and likely the only way she'll win the race is if she can slow everything down up front. She tired that tactic in her last, the Fair Grounds Oaks, and finished a close second to Quiet Temper.

#11 Evening Jewel (Career Record - 8-3-4-0) - This filly is one of the most consistent in the field. She hasn't been worse than second in seven straight starts and finished only a nose behind Blind Luck in February. The big question mark is will she like dirt. She's only ever run on artificial dirt and she didn't even workout on the dirt at Churchill. Big question mark but big potential.

#12 Ailalea (Career Record - 6-2-0-1) - After trained Todd Pletcher entered Devil May Care into the Kentucky Derby, this become his only Oaks hope. Her two races in 2010 were subpar with two sixth place finishes and she will need to return to her 2009 form is she has any chance in the Oaks.

#13 Amen Hallelujah (Career Record - 9-4-2-2) - After she captured the Davona Dale in late February, she put herself on the map as a prime contender for the Oaks. She followed up that performance with a runner-up finish to Devil May Care but drawing the 13 post could present a problem as she tends to be near the lead. Her jockey must avoid getting floated wide on the first turn if she has a chance to win.

#14 Joanie's Catch (Career Record - 18-2-8-6) - The most experienced member of the field but doesn't win very much. Her best effort was a third place finish to Devil May Care and Amen Hallelujah in the Davona Dale. With her post position and not so stellar record, it will take a herculean effort for her to wear lillies.

Wet Track Pointers

WEATHER FORECAST UPDATE: Good news is that worst of probably won't get going until mid-morning but it's still a bad forecast. Here's the latest from the National Weather Service.

Saturday: Periods of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 10am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 74. South wind between 10 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Saturday Night: Periods of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 66. South wind between 10 and 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

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The only certainty on Derby Day this year appears to be the weather which will be a rainy mess. Now the key is trying to figure out who will like the sloppy going on Saturday.

Here's some good info.

There are four horses that have already won on a wet track:

#4 Super Saver (Wet Track Record - 2-1-1-0) - His win on a sloppy track came at Belmont Park last year when he broke his maiden by seven lengths. His other wet track race came in his debut and he finished second to fellow Derby entrant Discreetly Mine. Plus, he has jockey Calvin Borel aboard and he has won two of the last three Derbys.

#11 Devil May Care (Wet Track Record - 1-1-0-0) - The filly enjoyed her only run in the slop when she debuted with a 4 3/4-length victory at Saratoga.

#15 Discreetly Mine (Wet Track Record - 2-1-0-0) - The Todd Pletcher-trained colt rolled to a 6 1/4-length win on a good track at Saratoga last August. He beat stablemate Super Saver in that race. His wet track loss came in early January when he finished fourth in the Spectacular Bid at Gulfstream Park.

#18 Backtalk (Wet Track Record - 2-2-0-0) - The son of 2004 Derby winner Smarty Jones won his career debut by 2 3/4-lengths on a good track. In February, he captured a minor stakes race at Delta Downs on a sloppy track.

Others to keep an eye on:

#2 Ice Box - He's never run on a wet track but his father, Pulpit, liked it. And one of trainer Nick Zito's Derby wins came on a sloppy track (Go For Gin).

#6 Stately Victor - In his career debut, he finished second on a "good" track at Saratoga.

#14 Mission Impazible - He finished third in last year's Kentucky Juvenile at Churchill on a "good" track and was second in a "sloppy" track allowance race at Gulfstream in January.

#17 Dublin - Don't let his fourth place finish to Backtalk last year at Churchill fool you. He had a tough trip in that race and his parents both ran well on wet tracks.