Wet Track Pointers

WEATHER FORECAST UPDATE: Good news is that worst of probably won't get going until mid-morning but it's still a bad forecast. Here's the latest from the National Weather Service.

Saturday: Periods of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 10am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 74. South wind between 10 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Saturday Night: Periods of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 66. South wind between 10 and 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

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The only certainty on Derby Day this year appears to be the weather which will be a rainy mess. Now the key is trying to figure out who will like the sloppy going on Saturday.

Here's some good info.

There are four horses that have already won on a wet track:

#4 Super Saver (Wet Track Record - 2-1-1-0) - His win on a sloppy track came at Belmont Park last year when he broke his maiden by seven lengths. His other wet track race came in his debut and he finished second to fellow Derby entrant Discreetly Mine. Plus, he has jockey Calvin Borel aboard and he has won two of the last three Derbys.

#11 Devil May Care (Wet Track Record - 1-1-0-0) - The filly enjoyed her only run in the slop when she debuted with a 4 3/4-length victory at Saratoga.

#15 Discreetly Mine (Wet Track Record - 2-1-0-0) - The Todd Pletcher-trained colt rolled to a 6 1/4-length win on a good track at Saratoga last August. He beat stablemate Super Saver in that race. His wet track loss came in early January when he finished fourth in the Spectacular Bid at Gulfstream Park.

#18 Backtalk (Wet Track Record - 2-2-0-0) - The son of 2004 Derby winner Smarty Jones won his career debut by 2 3/4-lengths on a good track. In February, he captured a minor stakes race at Delta Downs on a sloppy track.

Others to keep an eye on:

#2 Ice Box - He's never run on a wet track but his father, Pulpit, liked it. And one of trainer Nick Zito's Derby wins came on a sloppy track (Go For Gin).

#6 Stately Victor - In his career debut, he finished second on a "good" track at Saratoga.

#14 Mission Impazible - He finished third in last year's Kentucky Juvenile at Churchill on a "good" track and was second in a "sloppy" track allowance race at Gulfstream in January.

#17 Dublin - Don't let his fourth place finish to Backtalk last year at Churchill fool you. He had a tough trip in that race and his parents both ran well on wet tracks.

Last Stop or Not?

For many years, the "Road to the Kentucky Derby" basically ended in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes at Keeneland with just two weeks before the big race. But, with an overflow field expected, there might be one more stop.

In the Coolmore Lexington, the two horses with the only shot to move on to the Derby are Uptowncharlybrown and Connemara. The connections for both horses were uncertain even if they were victorious that they would move to the first Saturday in May.

What other race could change the picture? Believe it or not, it's the Derby Trial which is run on opening day of the Churchill Downs Spring Meet. The Derby Trial, which many years ago was one of the major prep races for the Derby as the race produced eight Derby winners, has been de-emphasized over the years since it is run a week before the Derby.

This year, with the purse being increased to $200,000 (thanks in part to horse owner Robert LaPenta whose sponsorship helped rename the race after one his Derby Hopefuls, The Cliff's Edge), a win might propel another horse into the Derby field.

One such horse is Eightyfiveinafifty. The colt, who was thought to be a Derby contender early in the year, took a step back after he "bolted" during the running of the Whirlaway at Aqueduct and didn't finish the race. After a little time off, he came back with an easy win the Bay Shore Handicap on the same day that Eskendereya won the Wood Memorial.

That win plus the Derby Trial would put him at #21 on the current list and be the first win in if another horse drops out. Don't be surprised if another horse, who is outside the Top 20, takes a shot at the Derby Trial with the intent of rolling back the next week.

On Friday, another horse joined the fray with hopes of going from the Derby Trial to Derby. Pleasant Prince, who is currently 26th, looked to be out of the Derby after running seventh in the Blue Grass last Saturday. The colt, who narrowly lost the Florida Derby to Ice Box in March, will make his third start in four weeks in the Derby Trial.

Plus, don't forget that it's always a near certainty that at least horse one will either drop out or get hurt before next Wednesday.

The horses that are waiting to get in are:

21) Jackson Bend

22) Backtalk

23) Make Music For Me

24) A Little Warm and Setsuko

26) Pleasant Prince

27) Caracortado

28) Connemara

So just when you thought we finally had our field of 20....think again. That's what has made this Road to the Derby a great ride.

Never Too Early

With the close of the Saratoga racing season at hand, the meet wraps up with a look to the future. And by future we are talking about the Kentucky Derby.

The last big race of the meet is the Hopeful Stakes which is for 2-year-old colts and geldings and there is a near capacity field of 12 set to run this afternoon.

The great thing about seeing these freshman run is that these are 2-year-olds that typically will be around as 3-year-olds and have a chance to make the "Run for the Roses."

If you look at some of the horses that have won the Hopeful, there's reason to be excited. (Thanks to Wikipedia for the list below.)

Among the future stars we've seen include: Afleet Alex (winner of 2005 Preakness and Belmont), Came Home, and 1997 Horse of the Year Favorite Trick. The race has also produced Triple Crown winner Secratariat and Affirmed.

Today's Hopeful horses to watch include: Backtalk, who is unbeaten in three starts including two stakes victories; Dublin, a regally bred son of Afleet Alex who won impressively at Saratoga last time and Enumerate, a Steve Asmussen-trained colt who lost to Backtalk in the Sanford last time.

2008	Vineyard Haven	Alan Garcia	Robert J. Frankel	Frankel/Lazzinnaro/Diamond Pride	1:23.40
2007	Majestic Warrior	Garrett Gomez	William I. Mott	Kinsman Stable	1:23.04
2006	Circular Quay	Garrett Gomez	Todd A. Pletcher	Michael & Doreen Tabor	1:23.00
2005	First Samurai	Jerry D. Bailey	Frank L. Brothers	Lunsford & Robbins III	1:23.25
2004	Afleet Alex	Jeremy Rose	Tim Ritchey	Cash is King LLC	1:23.58
2003	Silver Wagon	Jerry D. Bailey	Ralph Ziadie	Buckram Oak Farm	1:23.47
2002	Sky Mesa	Edgar Prado	John T. Ward	John C. Oxley	1:23.08
2001	Came Home	Chris McCarron	J. Paco Gonzalez	Trudy McCaffery	1:21.94
2000	Yonaguska (DH)	Jerry D. Bailey	D. Wayne Lukas	Michael B. Tabor	1:24.52
2000	City Zip (DH)	Jose Santos	Linda L. Rice	Thompson & Bowling	1:24.52
1999	High Yield	Jerry D. Bailey	D. Wayne Lukas	Bob & Beverly Lewis	1:22.85
1998	Lucky Roberto	Robbie Davis	Frank A. Alexander	Jesse Robinson	1:23.81
1997	Favorite Trick	Pat Day	Patrick B. Byrne	Joseph LaCombe	1:23.87
1996	Smoke Glacken	Craig Perret	Henry L. Carroll	Karkenny Levy et al.	1:23.63
1995	Hennessy	Gary Stevens	D. Wayne Lukas	Bob & Beverly Lewis	1:23.44
1994	Wild Escapade	Jorge F. Chavez	Leo O'Brien	Dogwood Stable	1:23.24
1993	Dehere	Chris McCarron	Reynaldo Nobles	Due Process Stable	1:15.80
1992	Great Navigator	Aaron Gryder	John F. Mazza	Roron Stables	1:15.71
1991	Salt Lake	Mike E. Smith	D. Wayne Lukas	William T. Young	1:17.74
1990	Deposit Ticket	Gary L. Stevens	D. Wayne Lukas	Overbrook Farm	1:16.20
1989	Summer Squall	Pat Day	Neil J. Howard	Dogwood Stable	1:16.80
1988	Mercedes Won	Robbie Davis	Arnold Fink	Christopher Spencer	1:16.60
1987	Crusader Sword	Randy Romero	MacKenzie Miller	Rokeby Stable	1:18.60
1986	Gulch	Angel Cordero, Jr.	Leroy Jolley	Peter M. Brant	1:16.40
1985	Papal Power	Don MacBeth	Charles Peoples	Bayard Sharp	1:18.40
1984	Chief's Crown	Don MacBeth	Roger Laurin	Star Crown Stable	1:16.00
1983	Capitol South	Jerry D. Bailey	Lou Rondinello	Darby Dan Farm	1:17.40
1982	Copelan	Jerry D. Bailey	Mitchell Griffin	Fred W. Hooper	1:16.60
1981	Timely Writer	Roger Danjean	Dominic Imprescia	Peter Martin	1:16.20
1980	Tap Shoes	Ruben Hernandez	Howard M. Tesher	Leone J. Peters	1:17.00
1979*	J.P. Brother	Joseph Imparato	John P. Campo	Diamond Peg Stable	1:16.20
1978	General Assembly	Darrel McHargue	Leroy Jolley	Bertram R. Firestone	1:16.40
1977	Affirmed	Steve Cauthen	Laz Barrera	Harbor View Farm	1:15.40
1976	Banquet Table	Jean Cruguet	George T. Poole, Jr.	C. V. Whitney	1:16.20
1975-I	Jackknife	Jean Cruguet	John P. Campo	Elmendorf Farm	1:16.60
1975-II	Eustace	James Nichols	Wayne Rose	Eugene Cashman	1:16.40
1974-I	The Bagel Prince	Angel Cordero Jr.	Edward Pappalardo	Edward Shamie	1:16.80
1974-II	Foolish Pleasure	Braulio Baeza	Leroy Jolley	John L. Greer	1:16.00
1973	Gusty O'Shay	Robert Kotenko	Harrison E. Johnson	Mrs. Gerard Hopkins	1:16.40
1972	Secretariat	Ron Turcotte	Lucien Laurin	Meadow Stable	1:16.20

Top Two-Year-Olds

With two of Saratoga's big freshman stakes in the books (Schuylerville and Sanford) you might be asking yourself did I see a rising star in the game?

Yes and no.

Hot Dixie Chick, who won the Schuylerville on Wednesday by 6 1/2 lengths, earned a 103 Beyer Speed Figure. She's undoubtedly the best 2-year-old in the country. And, oh by the way, she's trained by Steve Asmussen who has superstar Rachel Alexandra set to run in Sunday's Haskell at Monmouth.

The next day, Backtalk earned a hard fought neck victory in the Sanford. His Beyer - 82. Not nearly as impressive.

What makes Backtalk's race even more unimpressive is the fact that a maiden race for fillies earlier on Thursday's card saw a faster time and faster Beyer figures (Kinsey - 86). What's worse is both 2-year-old maiden race winners on Wednesday also had faster Beyers with one of those races being restricted to New York State breds (Come From Behind - 85).

This doesn't mean that Backtalk will not develop into a really nice horse but despite his unbeaten record, you can't be overly impressed with him.

Meanwhile, Hot Dixie Chick is the best freshman in the country. Will she take a similar path to her superstar stablemate and run against the boys? Right now, looks like she could beat her male counterparts.

Isn't this a great time of year?

Beyer Speed Figures are courtesy of Daily Racing Form
Photos courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire