Rachel's Connections In Tough Spot?

Rachel Alexandra is now in racing's all-time elite. After her stirring victory in the Woodward on Saturday, it left little doubt as to her stature.

She has a mortal lock on champion 3-year-old filly and a padlock on Horse of the Year unless something crazy happens in the next three months. Now her connections have a tough choice - do they race her again this year and if so, where?

The racing fan in me, as well as scores of others, wants to see her take on unbeaten Zenyatta in the Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic in two months. It's probably the only matchup left this year that would have any significance for her.

Owner Jess Jackson has said on many occasions that running on the "plastic" artificial dirt of Santa Anita is out of the question. But he is in a no-win situation with her next step.

The Woodward was undoubtedly a tough race on Rachel and since she went wire-to-wire and hold to dig deep to hold off Macho Again. It was her toughest race since she held of Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird in the Preakness.

Jackson can easily keep Rachel on the sidelines the rest of the year and you couldn't fault him for doing so. And if you read between the lines of his quotes, that appears to be the most likely scenario. If that happens, you can only hope that we will indeed see her as a four-year-old.

“I can’t honestly say (if she'll run again this year," he said. "Hal (Harold McCormick) and I will have to talk about it and Steve’s going to have to bless her coming out and what her condition is. She’s run more races than Zenyatta’s run, and Zenyatta’s 5 years old. You can’t expect a young youngster – she’s only 3 – running against older horses, running against older mares – you can’t expect them to keep going all the time. You have to give them a break, and we’ll talk that over very seriously.”

Racing so badly needs Rachel to run as often as possible and she's had eight starts this year already. There may not be another horse like her for some time. Jackson knows that, but he will undoubtedly air on the side of caution. As a result, he's in a great but tough spot.

If he were to run her again, the options are:

Beldame - A proposed purse boost to $1 million for the Beldame at Belmont was an attempt to lure Zenyatta east and keep Rachel in New York. That would be a huge shock if that came to fruition, especially since the race is only a month after the Woodward.

Breeders' Cup - This would give Rachel two months to recover from the Woodward and her presence would add a sensational and needed boost to a championship event. She could either run in the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic against the boys or more likely the $2 million Ladies Classic. The excuse of not running her because of the "artificial dirt" is a weak one though. (Jackson needs to forget about Curlin's moderate performance in last year's Classic.) She has a win at Keeneland on the Polytrack and there's no reason to think that a different surface would stunt her abilities. It would be a great way to cap off an undefeated and all-time great year.

Clark Handicap - Churchill Downs put on a great Thanksgiving weekend of racing and the Clark has always attracted good horses over the year. There is also precedent for Rachel to run in this 1 1/8 mile race. Surfside, a regally bred 3-year-old filly, went wire-to-wire to capture the 2000 renweal. Churchill is also Rachel's home base and CD might even throw in a purse boost to help lure her into race. But their connections indicated it would be too late in the year.

Match Race - The only other spot that might make sense is a staged match race with Zenyatta. Belmont and Sam Houston Park have offered inducements to bring the two together and there might be more to offer those incentives now. Jackson didn't appear to close the door on that after the Woodward.

"It depends on both horses coming out and what both camps would be willing to do," he said. "I’ve indicated Rachel’s had a full race year already. It might be that they get together, but I can’t predict that. It takes two to [tango], but it better be a good venue or neither one will come.”

No matter what happens, for those who have seen her this year have witnessed greatness. Let's just hope it's not the last time.

Sampling of Quotes from the Winning Connections

I thought you might enjoy reading a few snippets of what trainer Steve Asmussen and owner Jess Jackson had to say after Rachel Alexandra won the Woodward. Jackson said the most relative to if and when we will see Rachel again this year.

Steve Asmussen:

“I thought she truly showed she was a champion today. I can’t say enough, first of all, about Jess and the guts they’ve shown by continuously putting out there and raising the bar with a tremendous filly. I’m just extremely proud to be associated with her. I’m proud of the whole team, (assistant trainer) Scott Blasi, (exercise rider) Dominic Terry, it was a very emotional win.”

(What will he look for in the coming days?) “I’ll watch her appetite, I rely heavily on Scott and Dominic … every single little nuance about her, how she acts in her stall, exactly how long it takes her to eat, the whole nine yards. The filly has been tremendously consistent and we’ve been blessed with her consistency as well as her greatness.”

Jess Jackson:

“She’s been tested early two or three times now, and she’s had the courage and fortitude to finish, and with an attitude to hang in there and win. That’s a very exceptional horse, male or female, and for her to do that with six giant males racing with her was something special. I don’t know if you saw it, but she looked like she was only a 3-year-old with those horses. And yet she held in there with her spirit. I want to thank Saratoga. It’s always been a special place for me and my family and racing. And Curlin won this same race last year so it has special meaning for me and our team and I hope for Steve as well. What we need now are more stars, and I think she is one. I hope we can see her come out healthy, give her a nice race and give you a campaign in 2010.”

(On Zenyatta) “I can’t predict. It depends on both horses coming out and what both camps would be willing to do. I’ve indicated Rachel’s had a full race year already. It might be that they get together, but I can’t predict that. It takes two to [tango], but it better be a good venue or neither one will come.”

(On Horse of the Year) “Somebody else will decide that, but I hope so. I think she’s something for the ages and she’s certainly proven her mettle. On the earlier question about her attitude, she is a fighter. After blazing those fractions and in the Haskell, she still won. And maybe this wasn’t a pull-away victory, but if we run her again, the next one will be. She was, in my opinion, a little down today, but she still won and that’s the courage and fight she has.”

(on another race in 2009?) “I can’t honestly say. Hal (Harold McCormick) and I will have to talk about it and Steve’s going to have to bless her coming out and what her condition is. She’s run more races than Zenyatta’s run, and Zenyatta’s 5 years old. You can’t expect a young youngster – she’s only 3 – running against older horses, running against older mares – you can’t expect them to keep going all the time. You have to give them a break, and we’ll talk that over very seriously.”

How Good is Rachel? The Jocks Weigh In.

The win by Rachel Alexandra in Saturday's Woodward at Saratoga was simply breathtaking. For any horse to go wire-to-wire in a fast time in a race like the Woodward isn't easy. But the fact that a 3-year-old filly accomplished that feat against older males is simply remarkable.

Don't just take my word for it. The jockeys who were beaten by the "Superfreak" put it best.

“Champions show different dimension.," said jockey Robby Albarado, who was aboard runner-up Macho Again and rode two-time of Horse of the Year Curlin. "She is in a league of her own. She has beaten every top division we have in racing. Older horses, her age, it doesn’t matter. No matter what they throw at her, she’ll beat them.”

“My horse left everything on the track," Bullsbay jockey Jeremy Rose said. "He did everything he could to get by her. She just isn’t giving up. She’s awesome; there’s no two ways about it."

"I've never seen a filly like her," Edgar Prado said, who rode Past the Point. "She is spectacular."

(Note: Prado also stood in the winner's circle after the race to watch Rachel walk back.)

Calvin Borel - Pre-Race

I walked with Calvin Borel after he ran third in the Forego with Ready's Echo and he seemed relaxed, ready for Rachel Alexandra's big race, the Woodward which is just moments away.

I asked him for a quick though about the race.

"I am ready and looking forward to it," Borel said. "She is ready to run."

He then sprinted back to the jocks room to change his silks and climb aboard the big filly.

Rachel's Biggest Foes

With the minutes ticking away until Rachel Alexandra goes for the biggest win of her career, I've been looking to see which horse has the best chance to beat the "big girl."

Every one of them would have to run their career best in order to knock off Rachel but here's a quick look in my preference order of who I think can beat Rachel.

Macho Again (Overall record 18-6-5-0) - The gray colt will be last in the early part of the race but will make his patented closing move on the turn for him. If the speed up front is quick enough, he'll have a great shot wear down Rachel inside the final furlong. Trainer Dallas Stewart has said that his horse was training great at his home base at Churchill which prompted him to bring the colt back to Saratoga.

Asiatic Boy (Overall record 17-7-5-2) - The 6-year-old horse has made a lot of money is his international career - $3.27 million. He finished second to Curlin in the 2008 Dubai World Cup but was 12th in the same race this year. He's only been in the U.S. for two starts and has finished second each time. He will eventually break through for a big win and he should be clear of any trouble in today's race. Jockey Alan Garcia and trainer Kiaran McLaughlin have teamed up to win 31% of the time at Saratoga.

It's a Bird (Overall record 31-10-4-2) - South Florida based trainer Marty Wolfson is ALWAYS dangerous when he ships a horse from his home turf. (He sent Icon Project to Saratoga last week in the Personal Ensign and she won by nearly 14 lengths.) It's a Bird's worst race of the race came last time at Belmont which means he's due for a good outing. He should right near the front the whole way around.

Bullsbay (Overall record 18-7-5-1) - The Graham Motion-trained horse finally broke through for a big win last time when he won the prestigious Whitney at Saratoga last month. He's won three of his last five and rarely finishes off the board. Expect him to make his move on the far turn. Also, Motion and jockey Jeremy Rose have teamed up to win 3 of 4 at Saratoga.

Cool Coal Man (Overall record 20-8-3-1) - This is one of two Nick Zito-trained entrants and the biggest threat he will pose if the speed up front. He can ran both on and off the lead but best chance will be if he's close to the front. Zito and jockey John Velazquez have been a great combo at the Spa (winning % - 37). Zito also has a history of pulling big upsets and this would rank right up there.

Past the Point (Overall record 15-4-4-2) - The west coast based son of Indian Charlie has a great record at Saratoga. He's never been worse than second in four starts (2-2-0) and the Middle East powerhouse ownership group of Darley/Godolphin has been on fire during the Saratoga racing season. It would take his lifetime best effort to knock off Rachel however.

Da'Tara (Overall record 16-2-5-2) - Can lighting strike twice? Da'Tara knocked off Triple Crown hopeful Big Brown in last year's Belmont Stakes when he went wire-to-wire but has not won a race since. His best hope would have to be another front running effort.

Horse of Year Candidates

With a dwindling list of big races before the Breeders' Cup championshp in early November, now is a good time to speculate as to the favorites for Horse of the Year.

It appears that there will be five horses competing for year end honors and the chase is led by superfilly Rachel Alexandra. By the end of Saturday's races, the chase could either be over or a little more wide open.

Here are the contenders and some quick facts:

Rachel Alexandra (2009 Record - 7-7-0-0) - Simply put, she's the odds-on favorite to win Horse of the Year. Her string of impressive wins in 2009 add up to a 65-length margin and include the Kentucky Oaks, Preakness, Mother Goose and Haskell. The breathtaking victories in the Oaks and Mother Goose were some of the more impressive you'll ever see but the fact she has beaten the boys twice is equally as amazing. A win in the Woodward would secure her place as one of the best fillies of all-time and basically guarantee HOY.

Zenyatta (2009 Record 3-3-0-0) - The other "big girl" in racing has a career perfect record (12-for-12) but has only raced outside of her home base in Southern California once. Her best chance of winning Horse of the Year is if she beats Rachel in the Breeders' Cup (which is highly unlikely as Rachel's owner has said she is not running in the BC), or if some sort of match race is agreed to. If she does finish her career unbeaten, she still would rank as one of the best fillies of all-time but a notch below Rachel.

Gio Ponti (2009 Record 5-4-0-0) - The four-year-old colt has quietly had a great 2009 as he's rattled off four straight wins, all Grade 1's. The highlight came last month when he beat an international field in the the Arlington Million. The big knock against Gio Ponti is that he's a turf horse and there has only been one grass horse to be named Horse of the Year in the last 25 years. The only chance he has for HOY is if he switches to (artificial) dirt in the Breeders' Cup and wins the Breeders' Cup Classic.

Summer Bird (2009 Record 7-3-1-1) - The winner of the Belmont and Travers has gotten better with each start. His only hiccup this year was a 6th place finish in the Kentucky De

rby which is forgiveable considering he only had three outings before the "Run for the Roses." His best chance to capture HOY will be if he wins the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont and Breeders' Cup Classic plus a Rachel loss. (Remember: Rachel did beat Summer Bird in t

he Haskell).

Einstein - (2009 Record 5-2-0-2) - He is the longest shot of the group. In early summer, the venerable 7-year-old looked to have climbed back as the top older horse after winning the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic on Kentucky Derby Day. But since then, he's run third and fifth. He'll need to win the Pacific Classic at Del Mar on Saturday and the Breeders' Cup Classic if he has any chance combined with a Rachel loss. Either way, he's a great story and will probably head off to stud at the end of the year.

Honorable Mentions: Mine That Bird, Macho Again, Rail Trip

Overhyped Rachel?

Rachel Alexandra. What does that name mean to you?

For those who have seen her run whether live or on TV, words such as "incredible" "unbelieveable" have no doubt been uttered.

There are countless analogies, superlatives, and comparisons to other great horses (fair or otherwise) that have been made ever since she burst onto racing's big stage after her Kentucky Oaks victory heard "round the world" in early May.

Now she has a chance to join an elite club on Saturday at Saratoga when she takes on older males in the Woodward.

Racing insiders have been following Rachel closely for months but ever since she captured the Preakness, a mainstream crowd has begun to follow her. Since last week when her connections announced she would take on the "big boys" in the Woodward, Rachel attracted even more mainstream attention.

So much so that Sports Illustrated is sending one of its reporters to Saratoga despite the College Football season kicking off. In addition, the race is being broadcast on a regional cable sportschannel (MSG Network). You can also expect a large crowd on hand Saturday. Everyone wants to see what could be one of the greatest horses of all-time add another feather in her cap.

But is all of this growing attention overhype or well deserved?

In my mind, it's a bit of both. Racing never gets enough good coverage and when there is a potential superhorse, you want as much publicity as can be. It might be a bit over hyped but if she is able to win on Saturday, then it's no longer over hype. (Perhaps an SI cover will be in the offing?)

With a victory, what will undoubtedly happen is a growing call to run Rachel in the Breeders' Cup, racing's year end championship. Her owner, Jess Jackson, has continually said that he doesn't want to run his star on the artificial dirt of Santa Anita.

Racing will be done a disservice if Rachel is kept out of the Breeders' Cup but that's a debate that will rage out of control if she wins on Saturday.

In the meantime, let all the over hype and hyperbole continue. It's just what racing needs.