Going into the 140th running of the Travers, there was a big question of who is the best 3-year-old male in the country. It appears now that one colt moved to the head of the class.
Belmont Stakes winner Summer Bird is getting better with each start and validated his classic victory with a 3 1/2-length victory over Hold Me Back in Saturday's Travers. You would have to expect this Beyer Speed Figure to be a lifetime high. (His best previously was the 106 in the Haskell).
Summer Bird also pulled off a pair of rare doubles - he is just the 30th horse to win both Belmont and Travers. And an even rarer feat - Summer Bird and his dad, Birdstone, were the one of the first father-son combo to win sweep both
There's no question the sloppy track effected the outcome and might have compromised the chances of a few horses but the clear cut win leaves little doubt that he's the best sophomore in the country (outside of Rachel Alexandra).
To support his case, he's the only 3-year-old colt to win two Grade 1's this year (Belmont and Travers). Trainer Tim Ice has taken the talented son of Birdstone from $35k maiden company at Oaklawn to racing's greatest heights in five short months.
Meanwhile, Mine That Bird has not won since the Kentucky Derby and the other colts that showed promise (i.e. Kensei, Quality Road and Charitable Man) all fizzled out in the Travers.
“I feel like I do [have the best three-year-old colt]," said Ice. "He beat
What's next for Summer Bird is a good question. If he's able to win one more race this year, it will probably cement his case as the best. There's not many big races left for him to run but you have to assume they will fly out to Santa Anita and run in the Breeders' Cup in early November.
Mine That Bird's next start is expected to be in the Goodwood Handicap at Santa Anita while
Forget the fact that this is probably an average group of 3-year-olds. The point simply remains that Summer Bird is now the best of his peers.
Photo Courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire
Showing posts with label Charitable Man. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Charitable Man. Show all posts
Saturday, August 29, 2009
THE Big Bird
Saturday, June 6, 2009
Belmont Time - Analysis and Picks
The talk and the Triple Crown is just about over and the Belmont Stakes is at hand.
Here is a look at the field of 10 (and their record):
1) Chocolate Candy (10-4-2-1) - Been off since running fifth in the Kentucky Derby. Has the ability to be close to the lead which will be a big benefit with the speed holding at Belmont today. He's been training in NY for five weeks so he should be acclimated to the Belmont surface. Don't like the fact that he's just 8-1 to but if he likes "traditional dirt", he will be in the thick of it.
2) Dunkirk (4-2-1-0) - After disappointing (11th place) as the second choice in the Kentucky Derby, trainer Todd Pletcher appears to have the regally bred colt ready for this race. Jockey John Velazquez, Pletcher's regular rider, will ride him for the first time. Today he will look to validate his $3.7 million public auction price. Very dangerous here.
3) Mr. Hot Stuff (8-1-0-3) - The full brother to Colonel John has been a disappointment this year. He was 15th in the Derby in his first start on "real dirt" and will need a quick pace in front of his if he has any chance. The big plus for him is that he gets the services of Edgar Prado. Not likely to win here.
4) Summer Bird (4-1-0-1) - The "buzz horse" of Belmont Week is another horse who will be flying late. He also will need a quick pace in front of him but he has lots of talent and showed when he was third in the Arkansas Derby. He gets blinkers on for the first time which may move him closer to the lead and gets a big rider switch from Chris Rosier to Hall of Famer Kent Desormeaux. If he's closer early in the race, he has a big shot.
5) Luv Gov (11-1-3-1) - A horse the probably doesn't belong in the Belmont. Just one win and never beaten these kind of horses. Pass.
6) Charitable Man (4-3-0-0) - The value of the Belmont, the colt has never lost in three starts on "real dirt" and is 2-for-2 at Belmont Park. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin won this race in 2006 with Jazil and is very, very dangerous here.
7) Mine That Bird (10-5-2-0) - What more can you say about this colt? The Derby winner and Preakness runner-up has become such a great story continues to get better with each start. Jockey Calvin Borel is looking for racing immortality trying to win the Triple Crown on two different horses in the same year. The key will be is where Borel places the horse early in the race. He can't be to far back or to close. I would love to see him win and has a great shot to give Borel a "Calvin Crown."
8) Flying Private (12-1-4-0) - Trainer D. Wayne Lukas has won four Belmonts and turned this colt around after running last in the Derby. Was a troubled fourth in the Preakness but will need to improve more to be a factor here. Watch later in the year.
9) Miner's Escape (7-2-0-0) - Trainer Nick Zito has become the "Crown Killer" after stopping two Triple Crowns in the past five years. This horse's best shot will be to repeat what stablemate D'Tara did last year. Go to the front and steal the race. If he doesn't do that, he has no shot. But counting out Zito is tough in the Belmont is tough.
10) Brave Victory (9-2-2-1) - Zito's other horse in the Belmont will need a good trip to have any shot. Since he's on the outside, he will need to stay out of trouble and the best chance may be to drop back, like he did when he finished third to Charitable Man last month.
I will be rooting for Mine That Bird as it would be a great story in sports. Charitable Man is the best value of the race since he's 5-1.
Picks:
7) Mine That Bird
2) Dunkirk
6) Charitable Man
1) Chocolate Candy
Here is a look at the field of 10 (and their record):
1) Chocolate Candy (10-4-2-1) - Been off since running fifth in the Kentucky Derby. Has the ability to be close to the lead which will be a big benefit with the speed holding at Belmont today. He's been training in NY for five weeks so he should be acclimated to the Belmont surface. Don't like the fact that he's just 8-1 to but if he likes "traditional dirt", he will be in the thick of it.
2) Dunkirk (4-2-1-0) - After disappointing (11th place) as the second choice in the Kentucky Derby, trainer Todd Pletcher appears to have the regally bred colt ready for this race. Jockey John Velazquez, Pletcher's regular rider, will ride him for the first time. Today he will look to validate his $3.7 million public auction price. Very dangerous here.
3) Mr. Hot Stuff (8-1-0-3) - The full brother to Colonel John has been a disappointment this year. He was 15th in the Derby in his first start on "real dirt" and will need a quick pace in front of his if he has any chance. The big plus for him is that he gets the services of Edgar Prado. Not likely to win here.
4) Summer Bird (4-1-0-1) - The "buzz horse" of Belmont Week is another horse who will be flying late. He also will need a quick pace in front of him but he has lots of talent and showed when he was third in the Arkansas Derby. He gets blinkers on for the first time which may move him closer to the lead and gets a big rider switch from Chris Rosier to Hall of Famer Kent Desormeaux. If he's closer early in the race, he has a big shot.
5) Luv Gov (11-1-3-1) - A horse the probably doesn't belong in the Belmont. Just one win and never beaten these kind of horses. Pass.
6) Charitable Man (4-3-0-0) - The value of the Belmont, the colt has never lost in three starts on "real dirt" and is 2-for-2 at Belmont Park. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin won this race in 2006 with Jazil and is very, very dangerous here.
7) Mine That Bird (10-5-2-0) - What more can you say about this colt? The Derby winner and Preakness runner-up has become such a great story continues to get better with each start. Jockey Calvin Borel is looking for racing immortality trying to win the Triple Crown on two different horses in the same year. The key will be is where Borel places the horse early in the race. He can't be to far back or to close. I would love to see him win and has a great shot to give Borel a "Calvin Crown."
8) Flying Private (12-1-4-0) - Trainer D. Wayne Lukas has won four Belmonts and turned this colt around after running last in the Derby. Was a troubled fourth in the Preakness but will need to improve more to be a factor here. Watch later in the year.
9) Miner's Escape (7-2-0-0) - Trainer Nick Zito has become the "Crown Killer" after stopping two Triple Crowns in the past five years. This horse's best shot will be to repeat what stablemate D'Tara did last year. Go to the front and steal the race. If he doesn't do that, he has no shot. But counting out Zito is tough in the Belmont is tough.
10) Brave Victory (9-2-2-1) - Zito's other horse in the Belmont will need a good trip to have any shot. Since he's on the outside, he will need to stay out of trouble and the best chance may be to drop back, like he did when he finished third to Charitable Man last month.
I will be rooting for Mine That Bird as it would be a great story in sports. Charitable Man is the best value of the race since he's 5-1.
Picks:
7) Mine That Bird
2) Dunkirk
6) Charitable Man
1) Chocolate Candy
Belmont Update - 5:00 p.m.
Calvin Borel was just interviewed on ESPN and was asked about not riding at all before the Belmont and he seemed at ease with his decision saying that he's stayed in shape and has kept busy. He also deflected some of that decision to his agent, Jerry Hissam. He certainly will leave himself open to criticism if he loses a close race in the Belmont.
As for an update on the odds, Mine That Bird is still hanging in at even money while Chocolate Candy if floating up to 8-1. He should be at least 10-1.
Charitable Man remains at 5-1 looks to be a good value as he loves Belmont and traditional dirt. Dunkirk remains steady at 6-1.
But, someone, please explain to me why Luv Gov is just 20-1. There's always someone who is way overbet in races and he is one of those horses. Flying Private is by far trainer D. Wayne Lukas' best shot.
As for an update on the odds, Mine That Bird is still hanging in at even money while Chocolate Candy if floating up to 8-1. He should be at least 10-1.
Charitable Man remains at 5-1 looks to be a good value as he loves Belmont and traditional dirt. Dunkirk remains steady at 6-1.
But, someone, please explain to me why Luv Gov is just 20-1. There's always someone who is way overbet in races and he is one of those horses. Flying Private is by far trainer D. Wayne Lukas' best shot.
Belmont Update - 3 p.m.
With a 3 1/2 hours to go before the
The son of 2004
Second choice is Charitable Man - 5-1. I thought he might be a shorter price since he has never lost at
A pair of horses are tied for third choice at 6-1;
The interesting next one on the list is Summer Bird. He is 11-1 and is become the “buzz horse” of Belmont Week. Before you get sold on him, remember he has only won one race in his career and is going to be far back early.
Happy Belmont Day
Things are in full swing at Belmont Park as we are already four races into the 13-race event. Of course, the Belmont is the 11th race on the card.
After a huge deluge yesterday afternoon, the skies have partially parted and the sun is very slowly coming out. The track is good so there is a little moisture left over and the turf is soft.
A lot of the talk in the Press Box is centered on Derby winner Mine That Bird and his jockey, Calvin Borel. A lot of the writers, including yours truly, are still wondering why Borel elected not to ride any horses before the Belmont. In fact, he bailed off the one horse he was slated to ride (5th race - Tobruk).
Going into the day, Mine That Bird was the 7-5 favorite and Charitable Man was the 8-5 second choice.
I will be back all day with lots of odds updates and a closer look at the Belmont field.
After a huge deluge yesterday afternoon, the skies have partially parted and the sun is very slowly coming out. The track is good so there is a little moisture left over and the turf is soft.
A lot of the talk in the Press Box is centered on Derby winner Mine That Bird and his jockey, Calvin Borel. A lot of the writers, including yours truly, are still wondering why Borel elected not to ride any horses before the Belmont. In fact, he bailed off the one horse he was slated to ride (5th race - Tobruk).
Going into the day, Mine That Bird was the 7-5 favorite and Charitable Man was the 8-5 second choice.
I will be back all day with lots of odds updates and a closer look at the Belmont field.
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Belmont News....What there is of it....
Jockey Calvin Borel continues to spend lots of time in the national spotlight this week as he has done a slew of television interviews from his home base in Louisville, including the Today Show this morning.
However the picture is still fuzzy about who he might ride in the Belmont Stakes. Borel's first choice is still super filly Rachel Alexandra but there has been no decision made yet about her next start.
Meanwhile, the connections for Derby winner Mine That Bird insist that they will make a decision in the "next couple of days." If they are true to their word, that may keep Borel off Mine That Bird.
Of course, there is still the possibility that the "Bird Crew" could follow the same scenario as they did before the Preakness; give Borel the chance to ride Mine That Bird while waiting out Rachel Alexandra's fate. At the same time, they would have a "backup rider" ready if Rachel does try the one-mile-and-a-half "Test of Champions."
Mine That Bird was back on the Churchill Downs oval training for the first time since the Preakness and Rachel will follow suit tomorrow morning.
The only other news was a definite decision for Belmont contender Charitable Man will come on Wednesday. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin indicated that his colt is likely to run but would confer with the owners again to make their final choice.
The son of 1999 Belmont Stakes winner Lemon Drop Kid has won 3 of 4 starts including the Peter Pan Stakes two weeks at Belmont. His only loss came on the "artificial dirt" at Keeneland in April and is a perfect 2-for-2 at Belmont.
However the picture is still fuzzy about who he might ride in the Belmont Stakes. Borel's first choice is still super filly Rachel Alexandra but there has been no decision made yet about her next start.
Meanwhile, the connections for Derby winner Mine That Bird insist that they will make a decision in the "next couple of days." If they are true to their word, that may keep Borel off Mine That Bird.
Of course, there is still the possibility that the "Bird Crew" could follow the same scenario as they did before the Preakness; give Borel the chance to ride Mine That Bird while waiting out Rachel Alexandra's fate. At the same time, they would have a "backup rider" ready if Rachel does try the one-mile-and-a-half "Test of Champions."
Mine That Bird was back on the Churchill Downs oval training for the first time since the Preakness and Rachel will follow suit tomorrow morning.
The only other news was a definite decision for Belmont contender Charitable Man will come on Wednesday. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin indicated that his colt is likely to run but would confer with the owners again to make their final choice.
The son of 1999 Belmont Stakes winner Lemon Drop Kid has won 3 of 4 starts including the Peter Pan Stakes two weeks at Belmont. His only loss came on the "artificial dirt" at Keeneland in April and is a perfect 2-for-2 at Belmont.
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