Horse of the Year Clue?

Since the Horse of the Year voting is going to be very close, here is a look at the final NTRA poll which gives us some insight as to how voting might go but the key to remember is that there is a few weeks before the votes must be cast.

HORSE			A-S	STS-1-2-3	PTS	PVS
1. Havre de Grace  (15)			4-F	7-5-1-0	189	1
2. Game On Dude (1)			4-G	8-3-3-1	141	4
3. Royal Delta (1)			3-F	7-4-1-1	135	-
4. Tizway (1)			6-H	4-2-0-2	122	3
5. Drosselmeyer (1)			4-C	7-2-2-0	111	-
6. Acclamation (2)			5-H	7-5-0-0	88	6
7. Cape Blanco (1)			4-C	6-3-0-0	71	8
8. My Miss Aurelia			2-F	4-4-0-0	63	-
9. Flat Out			5-H	7-2-3-0	60	2
10. Caleb's Posse			3-C	10-5-1-1	49	-

Other Horses Receiving Votes: Hansen-27; Union Rags-26; Amazombie-23; Goldikova-18; St. Nicholas Abbey-16; Regally Ready-10; Ruler On Ice-9; Animal Kingdom-8; Blind Luck-8; Turallure-7; Plum Pretty-6; Turbulent Descent-5; Teaks North-4; Court Vision-3; Stephanie's Kitten-3; Musical Romance-2; Stacelita-2; Together-2; Rapid Redux-1; Secret Circle-1.    

Quick Look at the Breeders' Cup Classic

The 28^th running of the Breeders’ Cup should culminate with Goldikova going for an unprecedented fourth consecutive Mile victory and the best horses in the world fighting it out for the $5 million Classic.

The Classic is being built up as a potential duel between the talented Uncle Mo and this year’s “super filly” Havre de Grace but the race appears to be deeper than those two.

Here is a quick look at the Classic field:

1 – Prayer for Relief – Trainer Bob Baffert announced on Tuesday that he would scratch his colt because of a fever.

2 – Flat Out – He has been one of the most consistent horses all year and is very familiar with Churchill Downs as he spends part of the year under the Twin Spires. Oddly enough, he has yet to win in two starts at Churchill but will still be formidable if he can break through on Central Avenue.

3 – Drosselmeyer – He is best known for winning the Belmont Stakes in 2010 but has yet to recapture that glory. He has shown flashes this year including his runner up finish to Flat Out last month at Belmont. 

4 – Ruler On Ice – This year’s Belmont winner hasn’t repeated his stellar performance when he beat Animal Kingdom and Shackleford in the final leg of the Triple Crown. If the track comes up wet, that might serve as his best chance to upset this field.

5 – So You Think – The most well traveled horse in the field makes his U.S. debut after becoming a racing star in Australia in 2009-2010. His success continued in Europe this year but he will need to prove that he can run on dirt, which he has never done before.

6 – Ice Box – After showing tremendous promise with his 2010 Kentucky Derby runner-up finish, the Nick Zito trained colt returns to Churchill in hopes of showing that same brilliance. The son of Pulpit will need to repeat his Derby effort if he hopes for any chance to win.

7 – Rattlesnake Bridge – The lightly raced 3-year-old colt is improving with each start and his runner-up finish to Stay Thirsty in the Travers was his best effort to date. The question going into the Classic is how big of a step forward will he take when he faces older horses for the first time.

8 – Game on Dude - Trainer Bob Baffert’s best hope to win his first Classic rests with this son of 1998 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Awesome Again. He has two big wins, both in Southern California, and now “the dude” must prove he can win two events like that in a row.

9 – Stay Thirsty – The hottest 3-year-old in the country was a disappointment earlier this year when he 12^th in the Kentucky Derby but rebounded with a runner-up finish in the Belmont. After he swept the two big sophomore races at Saratoga  (Jim Dandy and Travers) he finished third to Flat Out and Drosselmeyer in his last race. Now, the question will be can he win outside of New York, which he has yet to do.

10 – Havre de Grace – Last year, Zenyatta attempted to beat the boys for the second straight year in the Classic but fell just short to Blame. Now this super filly, who has won 5 of 6 this year, will try to look to become just the second female to win this event. He biggest Achilles heel could simply be the distance of the Classic – 1 ¼ miles. She has lost both times running that far (all against her gender) and now will have to do that against the boys.

11 – Headache – The other “local” horse in the field will need to improve off his fifth place finish in The Whitney to have any shot. He does have two big advantages though – He has three victories at Churchill Downs and has a win at the 1 ¼ miles distance.

12 – Uncle Mo – There were such high hopes for last year’s 2-year-old champion after he cruised to victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He was expected to be the favorite for the Kentucky Derby but a rare liver ailment kept him out of the Triple Crown and away from the races from late April until August. After a runner-up finish at Saratoga in August, he cruised to an easy and impressive win at Belmont last month. His ability has never been in question but can Mo beat the best horses in the world at 1 ¼ miles?

13 – To Honor And Serve – Another colt that was expected to be formidable as 3-year-old but he yet to win a big race this year. His last race was impressive but it wasn’t even close to the level of horses he’s running against on Saturday.

The Filly In Front

Havre de Grace cruising to win in Belmont's Beldame

In what has been a very up and down year with racing’s elite horses, we may have finally seen the best rise to the top this past weekend but we still don’t have a unequivocal “horse to beat.”

A lot of attention, and justifiably so, will be focused on Havre de Grace (right) who not only has emerged as the best filly in the country but perhaps the best horse. She left little doubt about who the top female is after cruising to an easy win in Saturday’s Beldame at Belmont Park. That victory was on the heels of her breakout performance on Labor Day Weekend when she beat males in Saratoga’s Woodward Handicap.

Her trainer, Larry Jones, indicated her next race will be in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and with a victory would lock up Horse of the Year. She would become the third female in a row to capture that title, marking a first in racing.

With her resume and the fact that a girl is racing against the boys, she will likely be the favorite for the Classic at Churchill Downs next month.

Another former star that has returned to some semblance of glory is 2-year-old champion Uncle Mo.  He was all set to be racing’s next “big thing” but a mysterious liver infection knocked him out of the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown. The colt didn’t return to the races until late August when he finished second but  he rocketed to an impressive victory in the Kelso at Belmont in a very quick final time.

You can certainly make a case, as some have, that Uncle Mo and his late resurgence will make him the favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. There is no question that he does have more mainstream name recognition than all of his potential competitors but it’s hard to see a horse who has yet to beat any of the top caliber athletes become the betting choice next month.

Another horse that will likely take significant money at the betting windows include Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Flat Out (left) who has been finished only worse than second once all year. But, that off the board finish came at Churchill Downs in the June’s Stephen Foster Handicap. What could be more troubling is that he is 0-for-2 at Churchill.

Also Uncle Mo’s stablemate, Stay Thirsty, has improved dramatically since his 12^th place finish in the Kentucky Derby. He has racked up wins in the Jim Dandy and Travers and will need to prove to everyone that he can run well and win outside of New York.

The top two horses from the West Coast will be Acclamation and Game on Dude. Both have had up and down years but Acclamation got white hot during the summer as he reeled off four wins in a row including the Pacific Classic. Game on Dude, from the barn of trainer Bob Baffert, has two big wins in ’11 including last weekends Goodwood and the Santa Anita Handicap back in March.

Who will be favored for the Classic will be an interesting story to watch but all signs point to the hottest girl in the country by the name Havre de Grace.

Fitting Finish

Another Belmont Stakes is in the books and we saw a huge upset with Ruler On Ice easily beating the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner. Was it a total surprise that we saw an upset?

In a word...NO.

This has been an unpredictable Triple Crown as each race saw a surprise but this was the biggest of all them. Most of the fans seemed convinced that one of the horses for the Kentucky Derby would be able to pull out a win on Saturday but the best finish was Brilliant Speed, 3rd.

Plus with the bad weather and sloppy track, it was a perfect storm for an upset.

Right from the start, trouble was brewing as Animal Kingdom, the Derby winner, got into trouble as Mucho Macho Man bumped him a few steps from the starting gate and dropped back to last. Ruler On Ice was tracking Shackleford in second for most of the way and once the Preakness winner began to fade at the top of the stretch, he was home free. The only horse he had to fend off was another longshot, Stay Thirsty.

"At the half-mile pole, I was hearing whips cracking behind me and I could hear guys chirping to their horses, and all I'm doing is picking up the tempo," said Ruler On Ice's jockey Jose Valdivia. "With a half-mile remaining, I still felt like I have a lot of horse under me."

Now, as we head into the summer and start looking ahead towards the Breeders' Cup, who is the best 3-year-old in the country? More than likely the Animal Kingdom and Shackleford will battle for those honors but they may not meet again until the Breeders' Cup Classic in November.

Animal Kingdom's owner, Barry Irwin, indicated he might start the horse back on the Turf which could mean he'll bypass the Haskell and/or Travers.

Shackleford's plans are not known but it is a safe bet, if he comes out of the Belmont in good shape, that he will run in one of the big 3-year-old races left this year.

So with another upset in the book, it completes another disappointing Triple Crown series as we are 33 years without someone sweeping the three races. But the Breeders' Cup awaits and hopefully all the best 3-year-old will reunite to decide who is the best sophomore in the country.

Odds Update - 4 p.m.

1) Archarcharch - 13-1
2) Brilliant Speed - 26-1
3) Twice The Appeal - 10-1
4) Stay Thirsty - 16-1
5) Decisive Moment - 37-1
6) Comma to The Top - 35-1
7) Pants On Fire - 7-1
8) Dialed In - 5-1
9) Derby Kitten - 34-1
10) Twinspired - 29-1
11) Master of Hounds - 12-1
12) Santiva 35-1
13) Mucho Macho Man - 9-1
14) Shackleford - 24-1
15) Midnight Interlude - 8-1
16) Animal Kingdom - 22-1
17) Soldat 14-1
18) Uncle Mo - SCRATCHED
19) Nehro - 10-1
20) Watch Me Go - 27-1

12 Noon - Derby Odds Update

1) Archarcharch - 12-1
2) Brilliant Speed - 25-1
3) Twice The Appeal - 9-1
4) Stay Thirsty - 15-1
5) Decisive Moment - 37-1
6) Comma to The Top - 35-1
7) Pants On Fire - 7-1
8) Dialed In -5-1
9) Derby Kitten - 31-1
10) Twinspired - 27-1
11) Master of Hounds - 17-1
12) Santiva 32-1
13) Mucho Macho Man - 9-1
14) Shackleford - 22-1
15) Midnight Interlude - 10-1
16) Animal Kingdom - 20-1
17) Soldat 15-1
18) Uncle Mo - SCRATCHED
19) Nehro - 10-1
20) Watch Me Go - 27-1

First Day Kentucky Derby Day Odds

Now that the first day of wagering is in the books, here is the rundown of the odds of the 19 Derby horses.

1) Archarcharch - 13-1
2) Brilliant Speed - 30-1
3) Twice The Appeal - 7-1
4) Stay Thirsty - 17-1
5) Decisive Moment - 42-1
6) Comma to The Top - 43-1
7) Pants On Fire - 9-1
8) Dialed In - 9-2
9) Derby Kitten - 29-1
10) Twinspired - 21-1
11) Master of Hounds - 18-1
12) Santiva 30-1
13) Mucho Macho Man - 12-1
14) Shackleford - 19-1
15) Midnight Interlude - 10-1
16) Animal Kingdom - 24-1
17) Soldat 17-1
18) Uncle Mo - SCRATCHED
19) Nehro - 7-1
20) Watch Me Go - 29-1