Showing posts with label Nick Zito. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nick Zito. Show all posts

Saturday, May 7, 2011

Odds Update - 4 p.m.

1) Archarcharch - 13-1
2) Brilliant Speed - 26-1
3) Twice The Appeal - 10-1
4) Stay Thirsty - 16-1
5) Decisive Moment - 37-1
6) Comma to The Top - 35-1
7) Pants On Fire - 7-1
8) Dialed In - 5-1
9) Derby Kitten - 34-1
10) Twinspired - 29-1
11) Master of Hounds - 12-1
12) Santiva 35-1
13) Mucho Macho Man - 9-1
14) Shackleford - 24-1
15) Midnight Interlude - 8-1
16) Animal Kingdom - 22-1
17) Soldat 14-1
18) Uncle Mo - SCRATCHED
19) Nehro - 10-1
20) Watch Me Go - 27-1

12 Noon - Derby Odds Update

1) Archarcharch - 12-1
2) Brilliant Speed - 25-1
3) Twice The Appeal - 9-1
4) Stay Thirsty - 15-1
5) Decisive Moment - 37-1
6) Comma to The Top - 35-1
7) Pants On Fire - 7-1
8) Dialed In -5-1
9) Derby Kitten - 31-1
10) Twinspired - 27-1
11) Master of Hounds - 17-1
12) Santiva 32-1
13) Mucho Macho Man - 9-1
14) Shackleford - 22-1
15) Midnight Interlude - 10-1
16) Animal Kingdom - 20-1
17) Soldat 15-1
18) Uncle Mo - SCRATCHED
19) Nehro - 10-1
20) Watch Me Go - 27-1

First Day Kentucky Derby Day Odds

Now that the first day of wagering is in the books, here is the rundown of the odds of the 19 Derby horses.

1) Archarcharch - 13-1
2) Brilliant Speed - 30-1
3) Twice The Appeal - 7-1
4) Stay Thirsty - 17-1
5) Decisive Moment - 42-1
6) Comma to The Top - 43-1
7) Pants On Fire - 9-1
8) Dialed In - 9-2
9) Derby Kitten - 29-1
10) Twinspired - 21-1
11) Master of Hounds - 18-1
12) Santiva 30-1
13) Mucho Macho Man - 12-1
14) Shackleford - 19-1
15) Midnight Interlude - 10-1
16) Animal Kingdom - 24-1
17) Soldat 17-1
18) Uncle Mo - SCRATCHED
19) Nehro - 7-1
20) Watch Me Go - 29-1

Friday, May 6, 2011

First Look at Derby Odds

Now that Uncle Mo is scratched from the Kentucky Derby and the wagering has begun, here is a first look at the odds for the Derby....

1) Archarcharch - 12-1
2) Brilliant Speed - 25-1
3) Twice The Appeal - 10-1
4) Stay Thirsty - 13-1
5) Decisive Moment - 36-1
6) Comma to The Top - 38-1
7) Pants On Fire - 8-1
8) Dialed In - 7-2
9) Derby Kitten - 27-1
10) Twinspired - 22-1
11) Master of Hounds - 99-1
12) Santiva 31-1
13) Mucho Macho Man - 8-1
14) Shackleford - 23-1
15) Midnight Interlude - 15-1
16) Animal Kingdom - 48-1
17) Soldat 21-1
18) Uncle Mo - SCRATCHED
19) Nehro - 10-1
20) Watch Me Go - 20-1

Sunday, April 17, 2011

Kentucky Derby "Stat of the Day"

With the 137th Kentucky Derby approaching, I have compiled a list of interesting stats and tidbits. I will add at least one per day via Twiiter (@lanegold) and below will be a list of all the nuggets I have posted so far.

If there's a stat you would like to see, please let me know.

  • Uncle Mo is the only horse in this year's field with over $1,000,000 in earnings. He has $1,436,000 in earnings. The next closest is Dialed In ($879,206) and Archarcharch ($832,744).
  • For those Master of Hounds fans, no horse since 1937 has won the Derby with just one start as a 3-year-old. The best finish was by Challedon (2nd) in 1939.
  • Toby's Corner's father (Bellamy Road) and grandfather (Mister Frisky) were beaten Kentucky Derby favorites.
  • Only two horses since 1937 have run worse than 4th in last pre-Derby start and went on to win Run for the Roses. Count Turf (5th, Wood Memorial) and Iron Leige - 1957 (5th, Derby Trial.
  • There are 18 Derby winners starting with the letter "S", most ever. Of the 18, three won Triple Crown. (Sir Barton, Secretariat and Seattle Slew).
    • The Lexington, which is set to run this weekend at Keeneland, has produced two Derby winners - Charismatic, 1999 &; Swale, 1984. Charismatic is the only horse to have won both races. Swale finished 2nd in the Lexington.
    • Dialed In is looking to become first post-time favorite to win the Derby with four lifetime starts. The other horses who were favored - Coaltown (1948, 2nd. Note: - He was coupled with Triple Crown Winner Citation) and Indian Charlie (1998, 3rd).
    • Dialed In will try to become just the third horse and first since 1918 to win Derby with just four lifetime starts. (Other winners - 1902 - Alan-a-Dale and 1918 - Exterminator)
    • The Arkansas Derby has produced five Derby winners (1983, 1992, 1996, 2004, 2010). Only two horses won both.
    • The Toyota Blue Grass has produced 23 Derby winners but only one has won both in last 31 years - Strike The Gold - 1991.
    • There has been six horses that won the Derby after finishing 3rd in their last pre-Derby start.

    A New Derby Favorite

    A little over a week ago, it looked like we would have three solid favorites for the Kentucky Derby but now only one horse truly deserves that honor and the other two are questionable to be in the starting gate on May 7.

    Dialed In prevailing over Shackleford in the Florida Derby
    Dialed In, who won the Florida Derby over two weeks ago, will give trainer Nick Zito his best chance to win the Run for the Roses since his five horse entry back in 2005. The New York native has already won two Derbys (1991 and 1994) and will relish being back in the spotlight.

    The son of Mineshaft will try to become just third horse to win the Derby with just four lifetime starts and first since 1918. Despite his statistical impediment, he will be sent off as the Derby favorite.

    Meanwhile, Uncle Mo not only suffered his first career defeat in last week's Wood Memorial but his Derby status is still very much up in the air after trainer Todd Pletcher revealed this week that the 2-year-old champion had a GI tract infection. It certainly was questionable if Uncle Mo could have handled the Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles but with this latest malady, it seems that he the Derby odds are now stacked against him.

    Trainer Bob Baffert, a Derby regular for a number of years, looked to be in great shape with The Factor going into the Arkansas Derby. Sent off as the prohibitive favorite, the colt uncharacteristically did not take the early lead and faded to seventh down the stretch. Baffert already was quoted as saying that he wasn't sure The Factor wanted to go the 1 1/4 miles so after his dismal performance on Saturday, it appears his Derby winning chances are pretty slim.

    Fear not for Baffert as he still has Midnight Interlude and Jaycito as possible Derby starters.

    There is a lot that can still happen with less than three weeks until the Run of the Roses but the one thing that does appear certain, Dialed In will be the post-time favorite.

    (Photo courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire)

    Sunday, June 6, 2010

    Belmont Day Speed Figures

    For those that follow the sport of racing regularly, the Daily Racing Form's Beyer Speed Figures give you some insight into how fast the horses ran. The 2010 renewal of the Belmont produced some very moderate (and disappointing) Beyer Figures but some other horses on the card shined.

    One of the stars from Saturday was 3-year-old Trappe Shot. He has won his last three very impressively and ran a Beyer of 105, the second best the entire day. Expect to see him take on the "big boys" in the near future.

    Here are the Belmont figures plus others of note:

    BELMONT STAKES

    Drosselmeyer            94
    Fly Down                  93
    First Dude                 93
    Game on Dude          91
    Uptowncharlybrown  90
    Stay Put                    86

    Ice Box                     81
    Make Music For Me 75

    MANHATTAN

    Winchester               102
    Gio Ponti                  101

    ACORN

    Champagne d'Oro     95
    Amen Hallelujah        94

    TRUE NORTH

    Bribon                     107
    Snapshot                 103

    JUST A GAME

    Proviso                    96
    Phola                       95

    WOODY STEPHENS

    D'Funnybone           100
    Discreetly Mine        93

    Saturday, June 5, 2010

    2010 Belmont

    Coming into this year's Belmont Stakes, with the absence of Super Saver and Lookin at Lucky, it certainly took something away from the "Test of Champions" but we still saw a fantastic race on Saturday.

    Drosselmeyer finally lived up to his early season hype (and $600,000 price tag) and grounded out a win over Fly Down and First Dude. But it is hard to get excited about Drosselmeyer and I am trying to put my finger on why.

    Is it because the final time of the race was an uninspiring 2:31.57?

    Because trainer Bill Mott isn't the most exciting personality in racing?

    Is it because Drosselmeyer is a horse that has found a way to lose six of his eight starts when most expected him to win nearly off them?

    I am certain there are even more reasons that I can't think of but not as the sun is setting here at Belmont Park.

    It was was a bummer that Ice Box, the Derby runner-up, never fired and finished 9th. Also not running his best was Make Music For Me, trained by Alexis Barba, as he finished 10th. Both horses had excuses but never good to see some of best out of the Kentucky Derby run so poorly.

    One thing to get excited about is that we have a very murky 3-year-old picture and no one has emerged as the best. Now Super Saver, Lookin at Lucky and Drosselmeyer will slug it out during the next four months to determine who is the best sophomore.

    Also was exciting to see First Dude run another gutty performance as he set the pace in the Belmont and hung on for a 3rd place finish.

    After next week's big races at Churchill Downs and Hollywood, most of the stars in racing will get some time off until the summer racing seasons at Del Mar and Saratoga. Then it should be tons of fun to see the best battle for supremacy.

    Belmont Order of Finish

    1) Drosselmeyer
    2) Fly Down
    3) First Dude
    4) Game on Dude
    5) Stay Put
    6) Interactif
    7) Stately Victor
    8) Ice Box
    9) Make Music For Me
    10) Dave in Dixie
    11) Spangled Star
    12) Uptowncharlybrown*

    *Uptowncharlybrown finished fifth but was disqualified and placed last

    Saturday, May 15, 2010

    Preakness Odds Update - 5:50 pm

    Last update before the race:

    1) Aikenite - 30-1 (down from 35-1)

    2) Schoolyard Dreams - 14-1 (was as low as 12-1)

    3) Pleasant Prince - 22-1 (bouncing between 22-1 and 23-1)

    4) Northern Giant - 25-1

    5) Yawanna Twist - 15-1

    6) Jackson Bend - 11-1

    7) Lookin at Lucky - 5-2 (up from 2-1)

    8) Super Saver - 9-5 (down from 2-1)

    9) Caracortado - 18-1 (down from 19-1)

    10) Paddy O'Prado - 7-1 (down from 8-1)

    11) First Dude - 25-1

    12) Dublin - 9-1

    Preakness Odds Update - 5:25 pm

    1) Aikenite - 35-1 (been steady at that #)

    2) Schoolyard Dreams - 13-1 (was as low as 12-1)

    3) Pleasant Prince - 23-1 (was down to 22-1)

    4) Northern Giant - 25-1

    5) Yawanna Twist - 15-1

    6) Jackson Bend - 11-1 (up from 12-1)

    7) Lookin at Lucky - 5-2 (up from 2-1)

    8) Super Saver - 9-5 (down from 2-1)

    9) Caracortado - 18-1 (down from 19-1)

    10) Paddy O'Prado - 8-1 (up from 7-1)

    11) First Dude - 25-1

    12) Dublin - 9-1 (first time in single digits today - could be 3rd choice)

    Preakness Odds Update - 4:55 pm

    1) Aikenite - 35-1

    2) Schoolyard Dreams - 14-1 (bounced between 16 and 14 in the last couple of minutes)

    3) Pleasant Prince - 25-1

    4) Northern Giant - 25-1

    5) Yawanna Twist - 15-1

    6) Jackson Bend - 12-1 (up from 11-1)

    7) Lookin at Lucky - 2-1

    8) Super Saver - 2-1 (up from 9-5)

    9) Caracortado - 19-1

    10) Paddy O'Prado - 7-1

    11) First Dude - 25-1

    12) Dublin - 10-1 (still bouncing between 10-11)

    Preakness Odds Update - 3:50 pm

    1) Aikenite - 35-1

    2) Schoolyard Dreams - 15-1

    3) Pleasant Prince - 25-1

    4) Northern Giant - 25-1

    5) Yawanna Twist - 15-1

    6) Jackson Bend - 11-1

    7) Lookin at Lucky - 2-1

    8) Super Saver - 9-5

    9) Caracortado - 19-1 (down from 20-1)

    10) Paddy O'Prado - 7-1

    11) First Dude - 25-1

    12) Dublin - 11-1 (up from 10-1 - been bouncing between 10-11)

    Horse By Horse Look at the Preakness

    Here's a quick look at the Preakness Dozen.

    1) Aikenite (Career Record 8-1-2-2) - Trainer Todd Pletcher's "other" entrant's only win came last August at Saratoga. He usually puts in a good effort but appears a little overmatched here.

    2) Schoolyard Dreams (Career Record - 6-2-2-1) - Do you remember Musket Man from last year? This horse has the same owner and trainer and should be close to the front. He hasn't run since finishing fourth to Eskendereya in the Wood Memorial but you should expect him to be in the thick of it down the stretch.

    3) Pleasant Prince (Career Record - 9-1-2-2) - Expect him to be last early on and then make one big run as they turn for home. His best effort was a second place finish to Kentucky Derby runner-up Ice Box. If he's too far back, he may not be able to catch up.

    4) Northern Giant (Career Record - 9-1-2-2) - He was on target for a run in the Derby before his last place finish in the Arkansas Derby last month. That effort is a big concern and may just be a little worn down after five races this year.

    5) Yawanna Twist (Career Record - 4-2-2-0) - He has gotten better with each start but failed as the favorite in last month's Illinois Derby. His breeding suggests he won't want to go the Preakness distance but his trainer won this race a couple of years ago with Big Brown. His current odds are a little too short though.

    6) Jackson Bend (Career Record - 10-5-4-0) - You can just throw out his performance in the Kentucky Derby (finished 12th). Now that he's back on a dry track, he should run much better. Not sure he will relish the Preakness distance but should be in the mix coming down the home stretch.

    7) Lookin at Lucky (Career Record - 9-6-1-1) - He has been anything but lucky. The fact that he finished 6th in the Kentucky Derby despite getting bounced around like a pinball early in the race is remarkable. He has a new jockey, 25-year-old Martin Garcia, and that is bit of a concern but there is no questioning the horse's talent. He may be due for smooth sailing.

    8) Super Saver (Career Record - 7-3-2-1) - The Kentucky Derby winner is out to prove to the world that his win two weeks ago wasn't a fluke. He will need to show the world that he can win away from Churchill Downs and also on a dry track. If "rockstar" jockey Calvin Borel can keep him clear of trouble again, he'll have a great shot to keep Triple Crown hopes alive and back up Borel's Triple Crown Guarantee.

    9) Caracortado (Career Record -7-5-0-1) - He was destined to run in the Kentucky Derby until his 4th place finish last month in California. The key for him is to prove he can run on a normal dirt track. His biggest victories have come on the "artificial" dirt in California. If you like him, you will get great odds.

    10) Paddy O'Prado (Career Record - 7-1-2-3) - His 3rd place finish in the Kentucky Derby was the best race of his life but now he has to prove, like Super Saver, that he can run well on a dry track away from Churchill Downs. The big question is whether he will be near the front early or drop back like he did in the Derby.

    11) First Dude (Career Record - 6-1-3-1) - Trainer Dale Romans "other" horse comes off a third place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes last month. He's a horse with a lot of talent and Romans was really hoping he would have enough earnings to get into the Kentucky Derby. Another horse that will be a really good price. He's a live longshot.

    12) Dublin (Career Record - 9-2-1-2) - The D. Wayne Lukas trained colt gets a new rider in Garrett Gomez. Depending on who you talk to, that's either a good or a bad thing. Gomez's experience and winning big races should help as Dublin also got into trouble in the Kentucky Derby. Although he hasn't won a race this year, this horse has been one of the most consistent. Definitely a horse to watch carefully.

    Preakness Odds Update - 3:20 pm

    1) Aikenite - 35-1

    2) Schoolyard Dreams - 15-1

    3) Pleasant Prince - 25-1

    4) Northern Giant - 25-1 (down from 30-1)

    5) Yawanna Twist - 15-1

    6) Jackson Bend - 11-1

    7) Lookin at Lucky - 2-1

    8) Super Saver - 9-5

    9) Caracortado - 20-1

    10) Paddy O'Prado - 7-1 (down from 8-1)

    11) First Dude - 25-1

    12) Dublin - 10-1 (down from 11-1)

    Saturday, September 5, 2009

    Rachel's Biggest Foes

    With the minutes ticking away until Rachel Alexandra goes for the biggest win of her career, I've been looking to see which horse has the best chance to beat the "big girl."

    Every one of them would have to run their career best in order to knock off Rachel but here's a quick look in my preference order of who I think can beat Rachel.

    Macho Again (Overall record 18-6-5-0) - The gray colt will be last in the early part of the race but will make his patented closing move on the turn for him. If the speed up front is quick enough, he'll have a great shot wear down Rachel inside the final furlong. Trainer Dallas Stewart has said that his horse was training great at his home base at Churchill which prompted him to bring the colt back to Saratoga.

    Asiatic Boy (Overall record 17-7-5-2) - The 6-year-old horse has made a lot of money is his international career - $3.27 million. He finished second to Curlin in the 2008 Dubai World Cup but was 12th in the same race this year. He's only been in the U.S. for two starts and has finished second each time. He will eventually break through for a big win and he should be clear of any trouble in today's race. Jockey Alan Garcia and trainer Kiaran McLaughlin have teamed up to win 31% of the time at Saratoga.

    It's a Bird (Overall record 31-10-4-2) - South Florida based trainer Marty Wolfson is ALWAYS dangerous when he ships a horse from his home turf. (He sent Icon Project to Saratoga last week in the Personal Ensign and she won by nearly 14 lengths.) It's a Bird's worst race of the race came last time at Belmont which means he's due for a good outing. He should right near the front the whole way around.

    Bullsbay (Overall record 18-7-5-1) - The Graham Motion-trained horse finally broke through for a big win last time when he won the prestigious Whitney at Saratoga last month. He's won three of his last five and rarely finishes off the board. Expect him to make his move on the far turn. Also, Motion and jockey Jeremy Rose have teamed up to win 3 of 4 at Saratoga.

    Cool Coal Man (Overall record 20-8-3-1) - This is one of two Nick Zito-trained entrants and the biggest threat he will pose if the speed up front. He can ran both on and off the lead but best chance will be if he's close to the front. Zito and jockey John Velazquez have been a great combo at the Spa (winning % - 37). Zito also has a history of pulling big upsets and this would rank right up there.

    Past the Point (Overall record 15-4-4-2) - The west coast based son of Indian Charlie has a great record at Saratoga. He's never been worse than second in four starts (2-2-0) and the Middle East powerhouse ownership group of Darley/Godolphin has been on fire during the Saratoga racing season. It would take his lifetime best effort to knock off Rachel however.

    Da'Tara (Overall record 16-2-5-2) - Can lighting strike twice? Da'Tara knocked off Triple Crown hopeful Big Brown in last year's Belmont Stakes when he went wire-to-wire but has not won a race since. His best hope would have to be another front running effort.