Here are the quotes from the connections of the Derby contenders after the Post Draw....
ALPHA (Post position 11, morning line 15-1) –
Kiaran McLaughlin (trainer) – “We’re first in the gate. But he’s been great. It’s just going to make me more nervous. He’s fine. It’s a good position in gate, No. 11. It’s just that he has to load first. We didn’t really want that. It’s OK. We can’t do anything about it. He’s been great. I’ll just be nervous until they spring the latch.”
BODEMEISTER (Post position 6, morning line 4-1)/LIAISON (Post position 20, morning line 50-1) –
Bob Baffert (trainer) – On Bodemeister: “I was relieved that he didn’t get the one hole. I just didn’t want to be stuck on the rail, like I was with Lookin at Lucky and had that horrible feeling. I think all the good horses drew really well for this race. It’s going to be very competitive.”
On Liaison: “It’s not upsetting. I was hoping for maybe the 16 or something like that. I wanted him on the outside because he doesn’t like to take a lot of dirt. At least he’s going to have a clear shot. He can just take his time with him from there and move down. It’s not the end of the world.”
Mike Smith (jockey, Bodemeister) – “The post is fine. The ideal thing would probably to be to the outside of the other speed, but it is what it is. We’ve all got to get in there and we’ve all got to break well. We’ll play it off the break and see what happens. I think that if he gets away well, like I’ve been saying all along, if he’s given the opportunity, he’s going to run extremely well.”
CREATIVE CAUSE (Post position 8, morning line 12-1) –
Mike Harrington (trainer) – “It’s perfect. The post gives him a chance to get out and get a good stalking position. Depending on the speed, I expect him to three or four lengths off the leaders. That’s the way he runs.”
Was he getting a little edgy over the draw as some inside posts and outside posts were open before his name was drawn? “Yes, I was getting a little worried. I wanted to be somewhere between 7 and 12.”
DADDY NOSE BEST (Post position 10, morning line 15-1)/SABERCAT (Post position 18, morning line 30-1) –
Steve Asmussen (trainer) – “We were extremely fortunate with the draw and love exactly where both of the horses are.
“Both of these horses have acted well so far. Derby Day is a different scenario but I think we’re in great shape with both horses.”
DONE TALKING (Post position 17, morning line 50-1) –
Hamilton Smith (trainer) – “I would have liked to be a little further down inside than 17, but we’ll take it. I’m just glad to have a horse in the post parade. There’s a lot of speed in the middle of the gate that might be out and gone, leaving us a chance to get over some. We’ll let (jockey) Sheldon (Russell) do his best from there.”
DULLAHAN (Post position 5, morning line 8-1) –
Dale Romans (trainer) – “It’s obviously a good spot when the five-hole is one of the winningest post positions in Derby history (eight wins, tied for second-most since 1930). I don’t think the post draw was quite as important to our horse compared to some of the other speed horses, or when we had Shackleford last year. It’s good to be there in post five.”
EL PADRINO (Post position 16, morning line 20-1)/GEMOLOGIST (Post position 15, morning line 6-1) –
Todd Pletcher (trainer) – “Perfect. It worked out perfect. I love the 15, the first one in the auxiliary gate. There’s a little space there. He’s outside all the speed. They’re both together, so it makes it easier in the paddock.”
HANSEN (Post position 14, morning line 10-1) – Mike Maker (trainer) – On the tension of drawing either 1 or 14, the last two positions remaining:
“There’s nothing you can do about it, so I don’t worry about it.
On drawing the 14: “Perfect. We’ve got the little space between the gates. It couldn’t have gone any better.”
I’LL HAVE ANOTHER (Post position 19, morning line 12-1) –
Doug O’Neill (trainer) – “It’s not ideal, but it’s better than being inside. We will get to load late, so that is a plus. We’ll be outside all the speed so we’ll probably have a good chance to get good position. If they go 46 [seconds] or 47 and change for a half [mile], I’ll feel good. That will put him in position to close strongly.”
MY ADONIS (Post Position AE 21, morning line 50-1) –
Kelly Breen (trainer) – “Just knowing that we weren’t going to be the one or the two post, I guess, is nice. Being the 20 is better than being down on the inside. It is what it is and we’ve got to hope that we benefit from someone else’s misfortune and if it wasn’t meant to be then it wasn’t meant to be.
“Last year we actually had Ruler On Ice entered, in case something happened at the last minute, and he didn’t get in, but he went on to win the Belmont. We were happy to enter our horse and if it isn’t meant to be then so be it.”
OPTIMIZER (Post position 2, morning line 50-1) –
D. Wayne Lukas (trainer) – “Not good. Well, it’s not so bad. My horse isn’t going to be that quick. You get down there and you are going to get a lot of dirt. We’ll have to deal with it. I’m in the race, and that’s the main thing.”
PROSPECTIVE (Post position 12, morning line 30-1) –
Mark Casse (trainer) – “Anywhere between 5 and 14 was what I said I wanted, and last I checked, 12 falls between them. It’s kind of a good draw for our style. I see us being mid-pack. We have to have a perfect trip to be a competitor, but our horse is training extremely well.”
ROUSING SERMON (Post position 7, morning line 50-1) –
Jerry Hollendorfer (trainer) – “It’s a good post for us. He should be able to get out of the gate good and get good position. There’s speed inside and outside, so we’re in good shape. I think Trinniberg will make the lead and drag Bodemeister along with him. I’m hoping we will be in mid-pack after a half-mile, but not on the rail.”
Larry D. Williams (co-owner, co-breeder) – If Jerry’s happy, I’m happy.”
TAKE CHARGE INDY (Post position 3, morning line 15-1) –
Trainer Patrick Byrne “I love it. We’re inside. We are going to have an inside trip. Now we’re in the three hole; I’m glad we didn’t get the one. I called (jockey Calvin Borel’s) agent (Jerry Hissam) and to quote Calvin, he said’ dangerous.’ It’s a great spot. Borel wanted three to eight and we got three. We were three in the Florida Derby and he was three the first time he ran.”
TRINNIBERG (Post position 9, morning line 50-1) –
Shivananda Parbhoo (owner) – “I like it. We won’t have to use too much. We can get position where he’s supposed to be.”
UNION RAGS (Post position 4, morning line 9-2) –
Michael Matz (trainer) – “We’re going to have him run out of there a little bit, but that’s not the worst thing in the world. My original thought was that I wasn’t crazy about it, but where everybody is, I don’t think it’s so bad.”
WENT THE DAY WELL (Post position 13, morning line 20-1) –
Graham Motion (trainer): “It’s great. I said before that I’d like 10 through 16, so it’s perfect. The speed seems to be all around us, which is fine. I’m very happy where we are.”
Mike Battaglia, Morning Line Oddsmaker:
Why did you give the edge to Bodemeister and make him the morning line favorite?
“His Arkansas Derby was huge. He got a big number – it was 10 points higher than any other on the Beyer scale – which the bettors look at. It was an impressive performance and he’s one of those horses that is just improving at the right time. He’s really gotten better, so I gave him a little edge over Union Rags, who had the excuse in the Florida Derby – when he could have gotten the job done he didn’t but he did have a legitimate excuse – and he’s trained so well here.
“It was very close. If Bodemeister had drawn the one, or even the two, I would’ve switched them and made Union Rags the favorite.
“I wanted to make them co-favorite. I haven’t had the two favorites this close, actually, since Street Sense and Curlin. I wanted to make them co-favorite and I didn’t and they went off 10 cents apart.”
Wednesday, May 2, 2012
Thursday, April 12, 2012
NYRA Press Release on Injury Dispute
Here is a full copy of the NYRA Press Release disputing the New York Times story...
NYRA CHALLENGES NEW YORK TIMES ANALYSIS OF HORSE INJURIES
OZONE PARK, N.Y. – The New York Racing Association, Inc. (NYRA) challenges the analysis of horse injuries put forth by the New York Times in their front page article published on Sunday, March 25.
The Times developed a metric for the article referred to as an “incident rate,” defined as the number of times a set of terms (see next paragraph) appeared in official data per 1,000 horse starts. Under this metric, for example, Saratoga Race Course was assigned an incident rate of 5.5 for the years 2009 through 2011. It will be demonstrated below why this incident rate is incorrect, why the methodology behind it is faulty, and how that methodology may lead to misleading results.
The Times’ research method was explained in a sidebar entitled “How the Times Analyzed Data on Horse Injuries” published online at nytimes.com. The article stated that, “To assess how often horses break down or get injured, The Times purchased official data covering more than 150,000 race results from 2009 through 2011. The data are compiled by trained ‘chart callers,’ and used to compile results charts that bettors use to evaluate horses. The Times searched the data for terms indicating that a horse encountered a physical problem: broke down, vanned off, injured, lame, euthanized, died, collapsed, bleeding, or went wrong.”
NYRA asserts that it is unreliable and potentially deceptive for the Times to rely on chart callers’ descriptions of the running of a race to estimate how often horses get injured. Chart callers are trained to describe the manner in which a race is run, not to “assess how often horses break down or get injured.” Chart callers do not follow up with trainers or veterinarians to determine whether or not a horse has suffered an injury during a race.
Horses may be vanned off for many reasons that have nothing to do with an injury. For example, a jockey may pull up a horse if he or she believes the horse has taken a bad step. In cases like this, the horse is often vanned off as a precaution. This is a common scenario and often the horse is not found to have any physical problems.
For example, during Race 4 at Saratoga Race Course on August 25, 2010, the chart caller comment for Santo Gato reads, “pulled up, vanned off.” This would therefore be included in the Times report as an “incident.” Following trainer and veterinary examinations, nothing was found to be wrong with Santo Gato. He ran 16 days later at Presque Isle Downs on September 10, 2010 and has run 19 times since, posting three victories.
NYRA’s analysis reveals that of the horses that were vanned off at Saratoga Race Course from 2009 through 2011, 19 came back to race, making a total of 149 starts through the end of March 2012. The Thoroughbred Times, in an article posted online Wednesday, April 4, reported that by subtracting these horses that returned to the races, the New York Times incident rate at Saratoga Race Course drops from 5.5 to 3.23.
NYRA concludes, therefore, that there is plausible cause to regard the New York Times’ incident rate metric as faulty and to consider that its purported goal of assessing “how often horses break down or get injured” leads to misleading and incorrect results.
The Jockey Club released its updated North American fatality rate for thoroughbreds on March 22, based on three years of data collected in the Equine Injury Database, the North American database for racing injuries. For the racing industry as a whole, the prevalence of fatal injury per 1,000 starts was 1.98 for 2009, 1.88 for 2010 and 1.88 for 2011. At Saratoga, the prevalence of fatal injury per 1,000 starts was 0.98 for 2009, 1.52 for 2010, and 0.93 for 2011, among the lowest rates of any race track in North America.
This consistent safety record contributes to Saratoga Race Course’s status as one of the best thoroughbred meets in the country, drawing the best horses, jockeys, trainers, owners, and fans.
NYRA has an extensive list of safety and integrity policies and procedures in place at Aqueduct Racetrack, Belmont Park, and Saratoga Race Course. All three tracks have earned accreditation from the National Thoroughbred Racing Association’s Safety and Integrity Alliance. NYRA is the only jurisdiction in the United States where official racetrack vets administer Lasix, preventing private vets from entering a horse’s stall on race day. NYRA also employs best practices for pre-race exams, during which vets conduct comprehensive exams during the morning on every horse entered to race that day.
NYRA was the first racing jurisdiction to implement a jockey advocate program, designed to assist jockeys taken to area hospitals after an accident. Under the program, a Registered Nurse serving as the jockey advocate is on call during all NYRA races. If a rider is taken to the hospital, the jockey advocate meets the injured rider at the hospital to ensure that he or she is well cared for, and assist both jockey and family members with medical and administrative matters. NYRA also adopted a system originally conceived by Keeneland and created in collaboration with InCompass that uses a secure online database to store jockeys’ updated medical histories and makes it possible for emergency medical personnel at racetracks to instantly access that information.
NYRA has also partnered with the New York Thoroughbred Horsemen's Association (NYTHA), the New York Thoroughbred Breeders Inc. (NYTB) on a number of initiatives aimed at developing second career opportunities for thoroughbreds who have been retired from racing.
The recently-announced TAKE2 program creates new avenues for thoroughbreds after their racing days are over by expanding the demand for the breed in the horse show world. In addition, NYRA and NYTHA, as well as NYTB, have signed on to contribute to the Thoroughbred Retirement Foundation’s new program to retrain and adopt out as many as 100 horses per year retired from NYRA tracks. NYRA and NYTHA’s financial commitment to these efforts totals more than $250,000.
Additionally, NYRA and NYTHA joined a broad-based group of thoroughbred industry stakeholders that recently announced the establishment of the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance (TAA) – an organization designed to serve as both the accrediting body for aftercare facilities that care for thoroughbreds following the conclusion of their racing careers and a fundraising body to support these approved facilities.
NYRA CHALLENGES NEW YORK TIMES ANALYSIS OF HORSE INJURIES
OZONE PARK, N.Y. – The New York Racing Association, Inc. (NYRA) challenges the analysis of horse injuries put forth by the New York Times in their front page article published on Sunday, March 25.
The Times developed a metric for the article referred to as an “incident rate,” defined as the number of times a set of terms (see next paragraph) appeared in official data per 1,000 horse starts. Under this metric, for example, Saratoga Race Course was assigned an incident rate of 5.5 for the years 2009 through 2011. It will be demonstrated below why this incident rate is incorrect, why the methodology behind it is faulty, and how that methodology may lead to misleading results.
The Times’ research method was explained in a sidebar entitled “How the Times Analyzed Data on Horse Injuries” published online at nytimes.com. The article stated that, “To assess how often horses break down or get injured, The Times purchased official data covering more than 150,000 race results from 2009 through 2011. The data are compiled by trained ‘chart callers,’ and used to compile results charts that bettors use to evaluate horses. The Times searched the data for terms indicating that a horse encountered a physical problem: broke down, vanned off, injured, lame, euthanized, died, collapsed, bleeding, or went wrong.”
NYRA asserts that it is unreliable and potentially deceptive for the Times to rely on chart callers’ descriptions of the running of a race to estimate how often horses get injured. Chart callers are trained to describe the manner in which a race is run, not to “assess how often horses break down or get injured.” Chart callers do not follow up with trainers or veterinarians to determine whether or not a horse has suffered an injury during a race.
Horses may be vanned off for many reasons that have nothing to do with an injury. For example, a jockey may pull up a horse if he or she believes the horse has taken a bad step. In cases like this, the horse is often vanned off as a precaution. This is a common scenario and often the horse is not found to have any physical problems.
For example, during Race 4 at Saratoga Race Course on August 25, 2010, the chart caller comment for Santo Gato reads, “pulled up, vanned off.” This would therefore be included in the Times report as an “incident.” Following trainer and veterinary examinations, nothing was found to be wrong with Santo Gato. He ran 16 days later at Presque Isle Downs on September 10, 2010 and has run 19 times since, posting three victories.
NYRA’s analysis reveals that of the horses that were vanned off at Saratoga Race Course from 2009 through 2011, 19 came back to race, making a total of 149 starts through the end of March 2012. The Thoroughbred Times, in an article posted online Wednesday, April 4, reported that by subtracting these horses that returned to the races, the New York Times incident rate at Saratoga Race Course drops from 5.5 to 3.23.
NYRA concludes, therefore, that there is plausible cause to regard the New York Times’ incident rate metric as faulty and to consider that its purported goal of assessing “how often horses break down or get injured” leads to misleading and incorrect results.
The Jockey Club released its updated North American fatality rate for thoroughbreds on March 22, based on three years of data collected in the Equine Injury Database, the North American database for racing injuries. For the racing industry as a whole, the prevalence of fatal injury per 1,000 starts was 1.98 for 2009, 1.88 for 2010 and 1.88 for 2011. At Saratoga, the prevalence of fatal injury per 1,000 starts was 0.98 for 2009, 1.52 for 2010, and 0.93 for 2011, among the lowest rates of any race track in North America.
This consistent safety record contributes to Saratoga Race Course’s status as one of the best thoroughbred meets in the country, drawing the best horses, jockeys, trainers, owners, and fans.
NYRA has an extensive list of safety and integrity policies and procedures in place at Aqueduct Racetrack, Belmont Park, and Saratoga Race Course. All three tracks have earned accreditation from the National Thoroughbred Racing Association’s Safety and Integrity Alliance. NYRA is the only jurisdiction in the United States where official racetrack vets administer Lasix, preventing private vets from entering a horse’s stall on race day. NYRA also employs best practices for pre-race exams, during which vets conduct comprehensive exams during the morning on every horse entered to race that day.
NYRA was the first racing jurisdiction to implement a jockey advocate program, designed to assist jockeys taken to area hospitals after an accident. Under the program, a Registered Nurse serving as the jockey advocate is on call during all NYRA races. If a rider is taken to the hospital, the jockey advocate meets the injured rider at the hospital to ensure that he or she is well cared for, and assist both jockey and family members with medical and administrative matters. NYRA also adopted a system originally conceived by Keeneland and created in collaboration with InCompass that uses a secure online database to store jockeys’ updated medical histories and makes it possible for emergency medical personnel at racetracks to instantly access that information.
NYRA has also partnered with the New York Thoroughbred Horsemen's Association (NYTHA), the New York Thoroughbred Breeders Inc. (NYTB) on a number of initiatives aimed at developing second career opportunities for thoroughbreds who have been retired from racing.
The recently-announced TAKE2 program creates new avenues for thoroughbreds after their racing days are over by expanding the demand for the breed in the horse show world. In addition, NYRA and NYTHA, as well as NYTB, have signed on to contribute to the Thoroughbred Retirement Foundation’s new program to retrain and adopt out as many as 100 horses per year retired from NYRA tracks. NYRA and NYTHA’s financial commitment to these efforts totals more than $250,000.
Additionally, NYRA and NYTHA joined a broad-based group of thoroughbred industry stakeholders that recently announced the establishment of the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance (TAA) – an organization designed to serve as both the accrediting body for aftercare facilities that care for thoroughbreds following the conclusion of their racing careers and a fundraising body to support these approved facilities.
Monday, November 7, 2011
Horse of the Year Clue?
Since the Horse of the Year voting is going to be very close, here is a look at the final NTRA poll which gives us some insight as to how voting might go but the key to remember is that there is a few weeks before the votes must be cast.
Other Horses Receiving Votes: Hansen-27; Union Rags-26; Amazombie-23; Goldikova-18; St. Nicholas Abbey-16; Regally Ready-10; Ruler On Ice-9; Animal Kingdom-8; Blind Luck-8; Turallure-7; Plum Pretty-6; Turbulent Descent-5; Teaks North-4; Court Vision-3; Stephanie's Kitten-3; Musical Romance-2; Stacelita-2; Together-2; Rapid Redux-1; Secret Circle-1.
| HORSE | A-S | STS-1-2-3 | PTS | PVS | ||
| 1. Havre de Grace (15) | 4-F | 7-5-1-0 | 189 | 1 | ||
| 2. Game On Dude (1) | 4-G | 8-3-3-1 | 141 | 4 | ||
| 3. Royal Delta (1) | 3-F | 7-4-1-1 | 135 | - | ||
| 4. Tizway (1) | 6-H | 4-2-0-2 | 122 | 3 | ||
| 5. Drosselmeyer (1) | 4-C | 7-2-2-0 | 111 | - | ||
| 6. Acclamation (2) | 5-H | 7-5-0-0 | 88 | 6 | ||
| 7. Cape Blanco (1) | 4-C | 6-3-0-0 | 71 | 8 | ||
| 8. My Miss Aurelia | 2-F | 4-4-0-0 | 63 | - | ||
| 9. Flat Out | 5-H | 7-2-3-0 | 60 | 2 | ||
| 10. Caleb's Posse | 3-C | 10-5-1-1 | 49 | - | ||
Other Horses Receiving Votes: Hansen-27; Union Rags-26; Amazombie-23; Goldikova-18; St. Nicholas Abbey-16; Regally Ready-10; Ruler On Ice-9; Animal Kingdom-8; Blind Luck-8; Turallure-7; Plum Pretty-6; Turbulent Descent-5; Teaks North-4; Court Vision-3; Stephanie's Kitten-3; Musical Romance-2; Stacelita-2; Together-2; Rapid Redux-1; Secret Circle-1.
Monday, October 31, 2011
Quick Look at the Breeders' Cup Classic
The 28th running of the Breeders’ Cup should culminate with Goldikova going for an unprecedented fourth consecutive Mile victory and the best horses in the world fighting it out for the $5 million Classic.
The Classic is being built up as a potential duel between the talented Uncle Mo and this year’s “super filly” Havre de Grace but the race appears to be deeper than those two.
Here is a quick look at the Classic field:
1 – Prayer for Relief – Trainer Bob Baffert announced on Tuesday that he would scratch his colt because of a fever.
2 – Flat Out – He has been one of the most consistent horses all year and is very familiar with Churchill Downs as he spends part of the year under the Twin Spires. Oddly enough, he has yet to win in two starts at Churchill but will still be formidable if he can break through on Central Avenue.
3 – Drosselmeyer – He is best known for winning the Belmont Stakes in 2010 but has yet to recapture that glory. He has shown flashes this year including his runner up finish to Flat Out last month at Belmont.
4 – Ruler On Ice – This year’s Belmont winner hasn’t repeated his stellar performance when he beat Animal Kingdom and Shackleford in the final leg of the Triple Crown. If the track comes up wet, that might serve as his best chance to upset this field.
5 – So You Think – The most well traveled horse in the field makes his U.S. debut after becoming a racing star in Australia in 2009-2010. His success continued in Europe this year but he will need to prove that he can run on dirt, which he has never done before.
6 – Ice Box – After showing tremendous promise with his 2010 Kentucky Derby runner-up finish, the Nick Zito trained colt returns to Churchill in hopes of showing that same brilliance. The son of Pulpit will need to repeat his Derby effort if he hopes for any chance to win.
7 – Rattlesnake Bridge – The lightly raced 3-year-old colt is improving with each start and his runner-up finish to Stay Thirsty in the Travers was his best effort to date. The question going into the Classic is how big of a step forward will he take when he faces older horses for the first time.
8 – Game on Dude - Trainer Bob Baffert’s best hope to win his first Classic rests with this son of 1998 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Awesome Again. He has two big wins, both in Southern California, and now “the dude” must prove he can win two events like that in a row.
9 – Stay Thirsty – The hottest 3-year-old in the country was a disappointment earlier this year when he 12th in the Kentucky Derby but rebounded with a runner-up finish in the Belmont. After he swept the two big sophomore races at Saratoga (Jim Dandy and Travers) he finished third to Flat Out and Drosselmeyer in his last race. Now, the question will be can he win outside of New York, which he has yet to do.
10 – Havre de Grace – Last year, Zenyatta attempted to beat the boys for the second straight year in the Classic but fell just short to Blame. Now this super filly, who has won 5 of 6 this year, will try to look to become just the second female to win this event. He biggest Achilles heel could simply be the distance of the Classic – 1 ¼ miles. She has lost both times running that far (all against her gender) and now will have to do that against the boys.
11 – Headache – The other “local” horse in the field will need to improve off his fifth place finish in The Whitney to have any shot. He does have two big advantages though – He has three victories at Churchill Downs and has a win at the 1 ¼ miles distance.
12 – Uncle Mo – There were such high hopes for last year’s 2-year-old champion after he cruised to victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He was expected to be the favorite for the Kentucky Derby but a rare liver ailment kept him out of the Triple Crown and away from the races from late April until August. After a runner-up finish at Saratoga in August, he cruised to an easy and impressive win at Belmont last month. His ability has never been in question but can Mo beat the best horses in the world at 1 ¼ miles?
13 – To Honor And Serve – Another colt that was expected to be formidable as 3-year-old but he yet to win a big race this year. His last race was impressive but it wasn’t even close to the level of horses he’s running against on Saturday.
Thursday, October 6, 2011
The Filly In Front
 |
| Havre de Grace cruising to win in Belmont's Beldame |
In what has been a very up and down year with racing’s elite horses, we may have finally seen the best rise to the top this past weekend but we still don’t have a unequivocal “horse to beat.”
A lot of attention, and justifiably so, will be focused on Havre de Grace (right) who not only has emerged as the best filly in the country but perhaps the best horse. She left little doubt about who the top female is after cruising to an easy win in Saturday’s Beldame at Belmont Park. That victory was on the heels of her breakout performance on Labor Day Weekend when she beat males in Saratoga’s Woodward Handicap.
Her trainer, Larry Jones, indicated her next race will be in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and with a victory would lock up Horse of the Year. She would become the third female in a row to capture that title, marking a first in racing.
With her resume and the fact that a girl is racing against the boys, she will likely be the favorite for the Classic at Churchill Downs next month.
Another former star that has returned to some semblance of glory is 2-year-old champion Uncle Mo. He was all set to be racing’s next “big thing” but a mysterious liver infection knocked him out of the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown. The colt didn’t return to the races until late August when he finished second but he rocketed to an impressive victory in the Kelso at Belmont in a very quick final time.
You can certainly make a case, as some have, that Uncle Mo and his late resurgence will make him the favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. There is no question that he does have more mainstream name recognition than all of his potential competitors but it’s hard to see a horse who has yet to beat any of the top caliber athletes become the betting choice next month.
Another horse that will likely take significant money at the betting windows include Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Flat Out (left) who has been finished only worse than second once all year. But, that off the board finish came at Churchill Downs in the June’s Stephen Foster Handicap. What could be more troubling is that he is 0-for-2 at Churchill.
Also Uncle Mo’s stablemate, Stay Thirsty, has improved dramatically since his 12th place finish in the Kentucky Derby. He has racked up wins in the Jim Dandy and Travers and will need to prove to everyone that he can run well and win outside of New York.
The top two horses from the West Coast will be Acclamation and Game on Dude. Both have had up and down years but Acclamation got white hot during the summer as he reeled off four wins in a row including the Pacific Classic. Game on Dude, from the barn of trainer Bob Baffert, has two big wins in ’11 including last weekends Goodwood and the Santa Anita Handicap back in March.
Who will be favored for the Classic will be an interesting story to watch but all signs point to the hottest girl in the country by the name Havre de Grace.
Saturday, June 11, 2011
Fitting Finish
Another Belmont Stakes is in the books and we saw a huge upset with Ruler On Ice easily beating the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner. Was it a total surprise that we saw an upset?
In a word...NO.
This has been an unpredictable Triple Crown as each race saw a surprise but this was the biggest of all them. Most of the fans seemed convinced that one of the horses for the Kentucky Derby would be able to pull out a win on Saturday but the best finish was Brilliant Speed, 3rd.
Plus with the bad weather and sloppy track, it was a perfect storm for an upset.
Right from the start, trouble was brewing as Animal Kingdom, the Derby winner, got into trouble as Mucho Macho Man bumped him a few steps from the starting gate and dropped back to last. Ruler On Ice was tracking Shackleford in second for most of the way and once the Preakness winner began to fade at the top of the stretch, he was home free. The only horse he had to fend off was another longshot, Stay Thirsty.
"At the half-mile pole, I was hearing whips cracking behind me and I could hear guys chirping to their horses, and all I'm doing is picking up the tempo," said Ruler On Ice's jockey Jose Valdivia. "With a half-mile remaining, I still felt like I have a lot of horse under me."
Now, as we head into the summer and start looking ahead towards the Breeders' Cup, who is the best 3-year-old in the country? More than likely the Animal Kingdom and Shackleford will battle for those honors but they may not meet again until the Breeders' Cup Classic in November.
Animal Kingdom's owner, Barry Irwin, indicated he might start the horse back on the Turf which could mean he'll bypass the Haskell and/or Travers.
Shackleford's plans are not known but it is a safe bet, if he comes out of the Belmont in good shape, that he will run in one of the big 3-year-old races left this year.
So with another upset in the book, it completes another disappointing Triple Crown series as we are 33 years without someone sweeping the three races. But the Breeders' Cup awaits and hopefully all the best 3-year-old will reunite to decide who is the best sophomore in the country.
In a word...NO.
This has been an unpredictable Triple Crown as each race saw a surprise but this was the biggest of all them. Most of the fans seemed convinced that one of the horses for the Kentucky Derby would be able to pull out a win on Saturday but the best finish was Brilliant Speed, 3rd.
Plus with the bad weather and sloppy track, it was a perfect storm for an upset.
Right from the start, trouble was brewing as Animal Kingdom, the Derby winner, got into trouble as Mucho Macho Man bumped him a few steps from the starting gate and dropped back to last. Ruler On Ice was tracking Shackleford in second for most of the way and once the Preakness winner began to fade at the top of the stretch, he was home free. The only horse he had to fend off was another longshot, Stay Thirsty.
"At the half-mile pole, I was hearing whips cracking behind me and I could hear guys chirping to their horses, and all I'm doing is picking up the tempo," said Ruler On Ice's jockey Jose Valdivia. "With a half-mile remaining, I still felt like I have a lot of horse under me."
Now, as we head into the summer and start looking ahead towards the Breeders' Cup, who is the best 3-year-old in the country? More than likely the Animal Kingdom and Shackleford will battle for those honors but they may not meet again until the Breeders' Cup Classic in November.
Animal Kingdom's owner, Barry Irwin, indicated he might start the horse back on the Turf which could mean he'll bypass the Haskell and/or Travers.
Shackleford's plans are not known but it is a safe bet, if he comes out of the Belmont in good shape, that he will run in one of the big 3-year-old races left this year.
So with another upset in the book, it completes another disappointing Triple Crown series as we are 33 years without someone sweeping the three races. But the Breeders' Cup awaits and hopefully all the best 3-year-old will reunite to decide who is the best sophomore in the country.
Saturday, May 7, 2011
Odds Update - 4 p.m.
1) Archarcharch - 13-1
2) Brilliant Speed - 26-1
3) Twice The Appeal - 10-1
4) Stay Thirsty - 16-1
5) Decisive Moment - 37-1
6) Comma to The Top - 35-1
7) Pants On Fire - 7-1
8) Dialed In - 5-1
9) Derby Kitten - 34-1
10) Twinspired - 29-1
11) Master of Hounds - 12-1
12) Santiva 35-1
13) Mucho Macho Man - 9-1
14) Shackleford - 24-1
15) Midnight Interlude - 8-1
16) Animal Kingdom - 22-1
17) Soldat 14-1
18) Uncle Mo - SCRATCHED
19) Nehro - 10-1
20) Watch Me Go - 27-1
2) Brilliant Speed - 26-1
3) Twice The Appeal - 10-1
4) Stay Thirsty - 16-1
5) Decisive Moment - 37-1
6) Comma to The Top - 35-1
7) Pants On Fire - 7-1
8) Dialed In - 5-1
9) Derby Kitten - 34-1
10) Twinspired - 29-1
11) Master of Hounds - 12-1
12) Santiva 35-1
13) Mucho Macho Man - 9-1
14) Shackleford - 24-1
15) Midnight Interlude - 8-1
16) Animal Kingdom - 22-1
17) Soldat 14-1
18) Uncle Mo - SCRATCHED
19) Nehro - 10-1
20) Watch Me Go - 27-1
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