Derby Over Analysis, One Step at a Time

With just one Kentucky Derby prep race left, the over analysis of the potential field can really begin and I'll start off with a relatively easy analysis.

Sometimes the simplest way to analyze at a race is to look at the information that is right in front of you. The Daily Racing Form publishes a set of speed figures, Beyers (named for their inventor Andy Beyer), and they give you a quick and easy look at how fast a horse ran in a particular race.

(If you want a little more info on the Beyer Speed Figures click http://drf.com/flash/drf_pp_tutorial.html)

For those who believe in the Beyer Speed Figures, there are only three horses who have broken through the 100 barrier.

Eskendereya, the likely 2-1 favorite, is the number king as he racked up a 109 in last week's Wood Memorial and 106 in the Fountain of Youth back in February.

Next on the list is Santa Anita Derby winner Sidney's Candy. The horse, who is named for weight loss giant Jenny Craig's late husband Sidney, scored a 100 last week.

The only other horse inside the Top 20 who has a landed a triple digit figure might surprise you. (It surprised me.) Endorsement, who won the Sunland Park Derby on March 28, earned a 101. And before you dismiss the Sunland Park Derby, it produced a little horse named Mine That Bird.

The only major horse who hasn't cracked 100 is 2-year-old champion Lookin at Lucky. One would imagine he might have if didn't get sideswiped in the Santa Anita Derby but he is widely considered to be one of the horses to beat in less than three weeks.

What do these numbers mean? Quite possibly nothing but at the very least you see, at a glance, who merits your attention.

There will be plenty of other ways to analyze the field of 20 but we'll take it slow and pass on additional insight as we countdown to the Derby.

Weekend Wrap

Now that we have four Kentucky Derby prep races in the books, the picture for the Derby has gotten a little more cluttered.

No horse was overly impressive but will be curious to see if the Sunland Park Derby first three finishers (Endorsement, Conveyance and Tempted to Tapit) move forward. That race had the fastest time of all the prep races and remember that race produced last year's Derby winner - Mine That Bird (right).

But finishing in the top two in your last prep race before the Derby has been crucial. Since 1988, only five horses finished worse then second in their final race and went on to win the Derby. Those five are (1990 - Unbridled, 3rd Blue Grass; 1993 - Sea Hero, unplaced in Blue Grass; 1995 - Thunder Gulch, 4th Blue Grass; 2005 - Giacomo, 3rd Santa Anita Derby; 2009 - Mine That Bird, 4th Sunland Park Derby.)

Since there hasn't been a dominant 3-year-old this year, it looks like more than 20 will want to start in the Derby. If that holds true, then it will come down to which horses have enough Graded Stakes earnings to get into the Top 20.

After the four races this weekend, there are some bigger names that would be excluded. Among those that are on the "outside looking in" with their position on the list:

24 - Pleasant Prince, winner of the Florida Derby

25 - Tempted to Tapit, 3rd in the Sunland Park Derby

27 - Connemara, 3rd in the Lane's End

28 - Northern Giant, 2nd in the Lane's End

32 - Drosselmeyer - 3rd in the Louisiana Derby

There are still a handful of races to go but the money situation will hold the key for which 20 horses we see on the first Saturday in May.

Photo courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire