Horse of the Year Clue?

Since the Horse of the Year voting is going to be very close, here is a look at the final NTRA poll which gives us some insight as to how voting might go but the key to remember is that there is a few weeks before the votes must be cast.

HORSE			A-S	STS-1-2-3	PTS	PVS
1. Havre de Grace  (15)			4-F	7-5-1-0	189	1
2. Game On Dude (1)			4-G	8-3-3-1	141	4
3. Royal Delta (1)			3-F	7-4-1-1	135	-
4. Tizway (1)			6-H	4-2-0-2	122	3
5. Drosselmeyer (1)			4-C	7-2-2-0	111	-
6. Acclamation (2)			5-H	7-5-0-0	88	6
7. Cape Blanco (1)			4-C	6-3-0-0	71	8
8. My Miss Aurelia			2-F	4-4-0-0	63	-
9. Flat Out			5-H	7-2-3-0	60	2
10. Caleb's Posse			3-C	10-5-1-1	49	-

Other Horses Receiving Votes: Hansen-27; Union Rags-26; Amazombie-23; Goldikova-18; St. Nicholas Abbey-16; Regally Ready-10; Ruler On Ice-9; Animal Kingdom-8; Blind Luck-8; Turallure-7; Plum Pretty-6; Turbulent Descent-5; Teaks North-4; Court Vision-3; Stephanie's Kitten-3; Musical Romance-2; Stacelita-2; Together-2; Rapid Redux-1; Secret Circle-1.    

Quick Look at the Breeders' Cup Classic

The 28^th running of the Breeders’ Cup should culminate with Goldikova going for an unprecedented fourth consecutive Mile victory and the best horses in the world fighting it out for the $5 million Classic.

The Classic is being built up as a potential duel between the talented Uncle Mo and this year’s “super filly” Havre de Grace but the race appears to be deeper than those two.

Here is a quick look at the Classic field:

1 – Prayer for Relief – Trainer Bob Baffert announced on Tuesday that he would scratch his colt because of a fever.

2 – Flat Out – He has been one of the most consistent horses all year and is very familiar with Churchill Downs as he spends part of the year under the Twin Spires. Oddly enough, he has yet to win in two starts at Churchill but will still be formidable if he can break through on Central Avenue.

3 – Drosselmeyer – He is best known for winning the Belmont Stakes in 2010 but has yet to recapture that glory. He has shown flashes this year including his runner up finish to Flat Out last month at Belmont. 

4 – Ruler On Ice – This year’s Belmont winner hasn’t repeated his stellar performance when he beat Animal Kingdom and Shackleford in the final leg of the Triple Crown. If the track comes up wet, that might serve as his best chance to upset this field.

5 – So You Think – The most well traveled horse in the field makes his U.S. debut after becoming a racing star in Australia in 2009-2010. His success continued in Europe this year but he will need to prove that he can run on dirt, which he has never done before.

6 – Ice Box – After showing tremendous promise with his 2010 Kentucky Derby runner-up finish, the Nick Zito trained colt returns to Churchill in hopes of showing that same brilliance. The son of Pulpit will need to repeat his Derby effort if he hopes for any chance to win.

7 – Rattlesnake Bridge – The lightly raced 3-year-old colt is improving with each start and his runner-up finish to Stay Thirsty in the Travers was his best effort to date. The question going into the Classic is how big of a step forward will he take when he faces older horses for the first time.

8 – Game on Dude - Trainer Bob Baffert’s best hope to win his first Classic rests with this son of 1998 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Awesome Again. He has two big wins, both in Southern California, and now “the dude” must prove he can win two events like that in a row.

9 – Stay Thirsty – The hottest 3-year-old in the country was a disappointment earlier this year when he 12^th in the Kentucky Derby but rebounded with a runner-up finish in the Belmont. After he swept the two big sophomore races at Saratoga  (Jim Dandy and Travers) he finished third to Flat Out and Drosselmeyer in his last race. Now, the question will be can he win outside of New York, which he has yet to do.

10 – Havre de Grace – Last year, Zenyatta attempted to beat the boys for the second straight year in the Classic but fell just short to Blame. Now this super filly, who has won 5 of 6 this year, will try to look to become just the second female to win this event. He biggest Achilles heel could simply be the distance of the Classic – 1 ¼ miles. She has lost both times running that far (all against her gender) and now will have to do that against the boys.

11 – Headache – The other “local” horse in the field will need to improve off his fifth place finish in The Whitney to have any shot. He does have two big advantages though – He has three victories at Churchill Downs and has a win at the 1 ¼ miles distance.

12 – Uncle Mo – There were such high hopes for last year’s 2-year-old champion after he cruised to victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He was expected to be the favorite for the Kentucky Derby but a rare liver ailment kept him out of the Triple Crown and away from the races from late April until August. After a runner-up finish at Saratoga in August, he cruised to an easy and impressive win at Belmont last month. His ability has never been in question but can Mo beat the best horses in the world at 1 ¼ miles?

13 – To Honor And Serve – Another colt that was expected to be formidable as 3-year-old but he yet to win a big race this year. His last race was impressive but it wasn’t even close to the level of horses he’s running against on Saturday.

The Filly In Front

Havre de Grace cruising to win in Belmont's Beldame

In what has been a very up and down year with racing’s elite horses, we may have finally seen the best rise to the top this past weekend but we still don’t have a unequivocal “horse to beat.”

A lot of attention, and justifiably so, will be focused on Havre de Grace (right) who not only has emerged as the best filly in the country but perhaps the best horse. She left little doubt about who the top female is after cruising to an easy win in Saturday’s Beldame at Belmont Park. That victory was on the heels of her breakout performance on Labor Day Weekend when she beat males in Saratoga’s Woodward Handicap.

Her trainer, Larry Jones, indicated her next race will be in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and with a victory would lock up Horse of the Year. She would become the third female in a row to capture that title, marking a first in racing.

With her resume and the fact that a girl is racing against the boys, she will likely be the favorite for the Classic at Churchill Downs next month.

Another former star that has returned to some semblance of glory is 2-year-old champion Uncle Mo.  He was all set to be racing’s next “big thing” but a mysterious liver infection knocked him out of the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown. The colt didn’t return to the races until late August when he finished second but  he rocketed to an impressive victory in the Kelso at Belmont in a very quick final time.

You can certainly make a case, as some have, that Uncle Mo and his late resurgence will make him the favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. There is no question that he does have more mainstream name recognition than all of his potential competitors but it’s hard to see a horse who has yet to beat any of the top caliber athletes become the betting choice next month.

Another horse that will likely take significant money at the betting windows include Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Flat Out (left) who has been finished only worse than second once all year. But, that off the board finish came at Churchill Downs in the June’s Stephen Foster Handicap. What could be more troubling is that he is 0-for-2 at Churchill.

Also Uncle Mo’s stablemate, Stay Thirsty, has improved dramatically since his 12^th place finish in the Kentucky Derby. He has racked up wins in the Jim Dandy and Travers and will need to prove to everyone that he can run well and win outside of New York.

The top two horses from the West Coast will be Acclamation and Game on Dude. Both have had up and down years but Acclamation got white hot during the summer as he reeled off four wins in a row including the Pacific Classic. Game on Dude, from the barn of trainer Bob Baffert, has two big wins in ’11 including last weekends Goodwood and the Santa Anita Handicap back in March.

Who will be favored for the Classic will be an interesting story to watch but all signs point to the hottest girl in the country by the name Havre de Grace.

Fitting Finish

Another Belmont Stakes is in the books and we saw a huge upset with Ruler On Ice easily beating the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner. Was it a total surprise that we saw an upset?

In a word...NO.

This has been an unpredictable Triple Crown as each race saw a surprise but this was the biggest of all them. Most of the fans seemed convinced that one of the horses for the Kentucky Derby would be able to pull out a win on Saturday but the best finish was Brilliant Speed, 3rd.

Plus with the bad weather and sloppy track, it was a perfect storm for an upset.

Right from the start, trouble was brewing as Animal Kingdom, the Derby winner, got into trouble as Mucho Macho Man bumped him a few steps from the starting gate and dropped back to last. Ruler On Ice was tracking Shackleford in second for most of the way and once the Preakness winner began to fade at the top of the stretch, he was home free. The only horse he had to fend off was another longshot, Stay Thirsty.

"At the half-mile pole, I was hearing whips cracking behind me and I could hear guys chirping to their horses, and all I'm doing is picking up the tempo," said Ruler On Ice's jockey Jose Valdivia. "With a half-mile remaining, I still felt like I have a lot of horse under me."

Now, as we head into the summer and start looking ahead towards the Breeders' Cup, who is the best 3-year-old in the country? More than likely the Animal Kingdom and Shackleford will battle for those honors but they may not meet again until the Breeders' Cup Classic in November.

Animal Kingdom's owner, Barry Irwin, indicated he might start the horse back on the Turf which could mean he'll bypass the Haskell and/or Travers.

Shackleford's plans are not known but it is a safe bet, if he comes out of the Belmont in good shape, that he will run in one of the big 3-year-old races left this year.

So with another upset in the book, it completes another disappointing Triple Crown series as we are 33 years without someone sweeping the three races. But the Breeders' Cup awaits and hopefully all the best 3-year-old will reunite to decide who is the best sophomore in the country.

Odds Update - 4 p.m.

1) Archarcharch - 13-1
2) Brilliant Speed - 26-1
3) Twice The Appeal - 10-1
4) Stay Thirsty - 16-1
5) Decisive Moment - 37-1
6) Comma to The Top - 35-1
7) Pants On Fire - 7-1
8) Dialed In - 5-1
9) Derby Kitten - 34-1
10) Twinspired - 29-1
11) Master of Hounds - 12-1
12) Santiva 35-1
13) Mucho Macho Man - 9-1
14) Shackleford - 24-1
15) Midnight Interlude - 8-1
16) Animal Kingdom - 22-1
17) Soldat 14-1
18) Uncle Mo - SCRATCHED
19) Nehro - 10-1
20) Watch Me Go - 27-1

12 Noon - Derby Odds Update

1) Archarcharch - 12-1
2) Brilliant Speed - 25-1
3) Twice The Appeal - 9-1
4) Stay Thirsty - 15-1
5) Decisive Moment - 37-1
6) Comma to The Top - 35-1
7) Pants On Fire - 7-1
8) Dialed In -5-1
9) Derby Kitten - 31-1
10) Twinspired - 27-1
11) Master of Hounds - 17-1
12) Santiva 32-1
13) Mucho Macho Man - 9-1
14) Shackleford - 22-1
15) Midnight Interlude - 10-1
16) Animal Kingdom - 20-1
17) Soldat 15-1
18) Uncle Mo - SCRATCHED
19) Nehro - 10-1
20) Watch Me Go - 27-1

First Day Kentucky Derby Day Odds

Now that the first day of wagering is in the books, here is the rundown of the odds of the 19 Derby horses.

1) Archarcharch - 13-1
2) Brilliant Speed - 30-1
3) Twice The Appeal - 7-1
4) Stay Thirsty - 17-1
5) Decisive Moment - 42-1
6) Comma to The Top - 43-1
7) Pants On Fire - 9-1
8) Dialed In - 9-2
9) Derby Kitten - 29-1
10) Twinspired - 21-1
11) Master of Hounds - 18-1
12) Santiva 30-1
13) Mucho Macho Man - 12-1
14) Shackleford - 19-1
15) Midnight Interlude - 10-1
16) Animal Kingdom - 24-1
17) Soldat 17-1
18) Uncle Mo - SCRATCHED
19) Nehro - 7-1
20) Watch Me Go - 29-1

Update Derby Odds - 4 p.m.

Updated Kentucky Derby Odds - 4 p.m.

1) Archarcharch - 13-1
2) Brilliant Speed - 29-1
3) Twice The Appeal - 8-1
4) Stay Thirsty - 16-1
5) Decisive Moment - 39-1
6) Comma to The Top - 42-1
7) Pants On Fire - 9-1
8) Dialed In - 9-2
9) Derby Kitten - 27-1
10) Twinspired - 21-1
11) Master of Hounds - 20-1
12) Santiva 26-1
13) Mucho Macho Man - 11-1
14) Shackleford - 20-1
15) Midnight Interlude - 10-1
16) Animal Kingdom - 23-1
17) Soldat 19-1
18) Uncle Mo - SCRATCHED
19) Nehro - 8-1
20) Watch Me Go - 29-1

First Look at Derby Odds

Now that Uncle Mo is scratched from the Kentucky Derby and the wagering has begun, here is a first look at the odds for the Derby....

1) Archarcharch - 12-1
2) Brilliant Speed - 25-1
3) Twice The Appeal - 10-1
4) Stay Thirsty - 13-1
5) Decisive Moment - 36-1
6) Comma to The Top - 38-1
7) Pants On Fire - 8-1
8) Dialed In - 7-2
9) Derby Kitten - 27-1
10) Twinspired - 22-1
11) Master of Hounds - 99-1
12) Santiva 31-1
13) Mucho Macho Man - 8-1
14) Shackleford - 23-1
15) Midnight Interlude - 15-1
16) Animal Kingdom - 48-1
17) Soldat 21-1
18) Uncle Mo - SCRATCHED
19) Nehro - 10-1
20) Watch Me Go - 20-1

Missing Derby Star

The “Run for the Roses” is rapidly approaching and one of the all-time great Kentucky Derby jockeys may well be on the sidelines this year.

Calvin Borel, who is the only rider in Derby history to have won three times in a four year stretch (2007-2010), does not currently have a horse for this year’s renewal. His best chance, Elite Alex, finished a disappointing ninth in the Arkansas Derby. But all may not be lost for Borel as there are potentially three mounts that could open up in the next few days.

One could be J P’s Gusto, who was a well-beaten eighth in the Arkansas Derby. Right now, the connections are deciding if they want to run their colt in the Derby and if they decide it’s a go, then they may well be in the market for a new jockey.

 Borel aboard Rachel Alexandra in '09 Preakness

Another potential spot for Borel, although less likely, is Arkansas Derby runner-up Nehro.  Jockey Corey Nakatani already has one potential Derby ride with Santa Anita Derby runner-up Comma To The Top and if he sticks to that colt, then trainer Steve Asmussen would need a new jockey. Borel does not ride for Asmussen much but they did team up to win the Preakness in 2009 with the great filly Rachel Alexandra. (pictured right).

Another possible open spot for Borel is if Animal Kingdom commits to the Derby over the next few days. The colt, who won the Spiral Stakes last month, will more than likely need another rider as jockey Alan Garcia has already committed to ride Fountain of Youth winner Soldat. Plus, Animal Kingdom has had a different rider in each of his four starts.

The last open slot could be European based Master of Hounds. Jeff Lowe of Thoroughbred Times reported that Borel's agent Jerry Hissam plans to reach out to trainer Aidan O'Brien to see if he can get his client aboard the colt.

If none of those opportunities comes to pass then the Derby will be without a jockey who has had one of the most remarkable runs in racing history.

(Photo courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire)

Kentucky Derby "Stat of the Day"

With the 137th Kentucky Derby approaching, I have compiled a list of interesting stats and tidbits. I will add at least one per day via Twiiter (@lanegold) and below will be a list of all the nuggets I have posted so far.

If there's a stat you would like to see, please let me know.

• Uncle Mo is the only horse in this year's field with over $1,000,000 in earnings. He has $1,436,000 in earnings. The next closest is Dialed In ($879,206) and Archarcharch ($832,744).

• For those Master of Hounds fans, no horse since 1937 has won the Derby with just one start as a 3-year-old. The best finish was by Challedon (2nd) in 1939.

• Toby's Corner's father (Bellamy Road) and grandfather (Mister Frisky) were beaten Kentucky Derby favorites.

• Only two horses since 1937 have run worse than 4th in last pre-Derby start and went on to win Run for the Roses. Count Turf (5th, Wood Memorial) and Iron Leige - 1957 (5th, Derby Trial.

• There are 18 Derby winners starting with the letter "S", most ever. Of the 18, three won Triple Crown. (Sir Barton, Secretariat and Seattle Slew).

• The Lexington, which is set to run this weekend at Keeneland, has produced two Derby winners - Charismatic, 1999 &; Swale, 1984. Charismatic is the only horse to have won both races. Swale finished 2nd in the Lexington.

• Dialed In is looking to become first post-time favorite to win the Derby with four lifetime starts. The other horses who were favored - Coaltown (1948, 2nd. Note: - He was coupled with Triple Crown Winner Citation) and Indian Charlie (1998, 3rd).

• Dialed In will try to become just the third horse and first since 1918 to win Derby with just four lifetime starts. (Other winners - 1902 - Alan-a-Dale and 1918 - Exterminator)

• The Arkansas Derby has produced five Derby winners (1983, 1992, 1996, 2004, 2010). Only two horses won both.

• The Toyota Blue Grass has produced 23 Derby winners but only one has won both in last 31 years - Strike The Gold - 1991.

• There has been six horses that won the Derby after finishing 3rd in their last pre-Derby start.

A New Derby Favorite

A little over a week ago, it looked like we would have three solid favorites for the Kentucky Derby but now only one horse truly deserves that honor and the other two are questionable to be in the starting gate on May 7.

Dialed In prevailing over Shackleford in the Florida Derby

Dialed In, who won the Florida Derby over two weeks ago, will give trainer Nick Zito his best chance to win the Run for the Roses since his five horse entry back in 2005. The New York native has already won two Derbys (1991 and 1994) and will relish being back in the spotlight.

The son of Mineshaft will try to become just third horse to win the Derby with just four lifetime starts and first since 1918. Despite his statistical impediment, he will be sent off as the Derby favorite.

Meanwhile, Uncle Mo not only suffered his first career defeat in last week's Wood Memorial but his Derby status is still very much up in the air after trainer Todd Pletcher revealed this week that the 2-year-old champion had a GI tract infection. It certainly was questionable if Uncle Mo could have handled the Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles but with this latest malady, it seems that he the Derby odds are now stacked against him.

Trainer Bob Baffert, a Derby regular for a number of years, looked to be in great shape with The Factor going into the Arkansas Derby. Sent off as the prohibitive favorite, the colt uncharacteristically did not take the early lead and faded to seventh down the stretch. Baffert already was quoted as saying that he wasn't sure The Factor wanted to go the 1 1/4 miles so after his dismal performance on Saturday, it appears his Derby winning chances are pretty slim.

Fear not for Baffert as he still has Midnight Interlude and Jaycito as possible Derby starters.

There is a lot that can still happen with less than three weeks until the Run of the Roses but the one thing that does appear certain, Dialed In will be the post-time favorite.

(Photo courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire)

Fountain of Youth Comments

Here are a few comments from trainers and jockeys after the Fountain of Youth

Kiaran McLaughlin, trainer, Soldat - "When he drew the one post we decided he had to go to the lead. That doesn't mean we might not have another strategy in the future (depending on the draw). It's on to the Florida Derby now. He's always done everything right and today we got the fast track we wanted. The timing of the program here is perfect for us - five weeks from now to the Florida Derby (April 3) and another five weeks to the Kentucky Derby (May 7)."

Bill Mott, trainer, To Honor and Serve - "He (jockey John Velazquez) liked his race. He said he did everything he asked until he got to the quarter pole and then he said he got a little flat. I can imagine he might have needed the race. If he got beat I thought he might carry (Velazquez) a little more into the stretch. It looks like he needed the race. John compared him to the horse he rode and won the Davona Dale (R Heat Lightning). The first time down here she was a little flat and she came back and ran big today."

John Velazquez, jockey, To Honor and Serve "I thought he ran very well. He settled in really well going down the backside. He ranged up to the leader on the far turn and finished well, just didn't have the closing kick he usually does. I think, off the layoff, that is to be expected. Overall, I thought he ran terrific."