Preakness Numbers & Thoughts

Here's just a few interesting stats and tidbits from Saturday's middle leg of the Triple Crown.

The Daily Racing Form's Beyer Speed Figures from the Preakness:

Lookin at Lucky 102

First Dude 101

Jackson Bend 101

Yawanna Twist 99

Dublin 93

Paddy O'Prado 85

Caracortado 85

Super Saver 84

Schoolyard Dreams 83

Aikenite 79

Pleasant Prince 73

Northern Giant 68

The horses listed in BOLD FACE are possible for the Belmont Stakes. Of that group, only First Dude is the most likely. The Belmont will have Kentucky Derby runner-up Ice Box and he should be one of the favorites for the 1 1/2 miles marathon.

This will be the second time in five years that neither the Derby or Preakness winner will venture to New York for the final leg of the Triple Crown. In 2006, the ill-fated Derby winner Barbaro, who suffered an near fatal injury in the Preakness before succumbing to his wounds months later, and Preakness winner Bernardini skipped the Belmont.

Trainer Bob Baffert's Preakness win now gives him nine Triple Crown victories which is tied for fifth best all-time. D. Wayne Lukas, who could send Dublin to the Belmont, is tied for the lead with 13.

Baffert tied Lukas for most wins in the Preakness with five. The all-time leader is R. Wyndham Walden with seven victories.

The list of Belmont contenders outside of the Preakness runners: Drosselmeyer, the talented colt who will have a new jockey; Fly Down, the Nick Zito trained winner of the Dwyer; Game on Dude, winner of the Lone Star Derby for Baffert; Make Music For Me, 4th in the Kentucky Derby; New Madrid; Setsuko, who was excluded from the Derby for insufficient Graded Stakes Earnings; Stately Victor; Stay Put; and Uptowncharlybrown, who is now in the barn of trainer Kiaran McLaughlin; 

On the under card, Blame took a big step in becoming one of the top horses in country when he made a successful debut in 2010 in the William Schaefer. His effort yielded him an 101 Beyer Speed Figure. His next race is expect to be the Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs next month.

Finally.....

BALTIMORE - No sport may be more dependent on luck than racing and Lookin at Lucky didn't have much go right for him in the last six weeks. On Saturday, the aptly named horse finally had everything go his way and captured the 135th Preakness Stakes.

Early in the week, trainer Bob Baffert, who now has five Preakness victories, elected to change riders on the Lookin at Lucky for the first time. Garrett Gomez was given the boot and 25-year-old Martin Garcia, a former cook at a Northern California deli, got the assignment.

Garcia looked like a calm, cool veteran as he kept the colt out of trouble the entire race and guided him to the front as they turned for home. Then Garcia kept after "Lucky" nearly the entire stretch run and held off a stubborn pacesetter First Dude.

"He knows I have confidence in him," Baffert said. "I think the jockey knows that a trainer has confidence in him, you click...I think we've been clicking. I sent him all over the States. I just hope he shows up Monday to work my horses."

The irony of the Preakness is that Gomez, who got a new riding assignment aboard Dublin, got into trouble right from the start and dropped back to last. Dublin made a nice run and finished fifth.

As for Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver, it just appeared he was tired. Jockey Calvin Borel kept Super Saver close to the front and the early taxing fractions took their toll as he started to fade before the final run down the home stretch.

"When they went to the far turn, you can see that Calvin was squeezing and asking him to get that horse (First Dude) and just couldn't do it," trainer Todd Pletcher said. "He hung in there. He kept fighting. He tried hard. It was back a little quick for him. Now we've got time to come back for a big summer."

Also, big credit to First Dude as he ran a gutty effort to hold on for second. He set a quick early pace and held off late challenges from Jackson Bend and Yawanna Twist.

The sad part for racing is that the Belmont Stakes will probably not get either Super Saver or Lookin at Lucky as both trainers seemed really uncertain about moving on to the toughest leg of the Triple Crown.

Looks like the most prominent horse at the Belmont will be Derby runner-up Ice Box. First Dude might also move on but that's still up in the air.

But it was great to see the best horse win as Lookin at Lucky proved that he still is one of the best 3-year-olds in the country.

Preakness Odds Update - 5:50 pm

Last update before the race:

1) Aikenite - 30-1 (down from 35-1)

2) Schoolyard Dreams - 14-1 (was as low as 12-1)

3) Pleasant Prince - 22-1 (bouncing between 22-1 and 23-1)

4) Northern Giant - 25-1

5) Yawanna Twist - 15-1

6) Jackson Bend - 11-1

7) Lookin at Lucky - 5-2 (up from 2-1)

8) Super Saver - 9-5 (down from 2-1)

9) Caracortado - 18-1 (down from 19-1)

10) Paddy O'Prado - 7-1 (down from 8-1)

11) First Dude - 25-1

12) Dublin - 9-1

Preakness Odds Update - 5:25 pm

1) Aikenite - 35-1 (been steady at that #)

2) Schoolyard Dreams - 13-1 (was as low as 12-1)

3) Pleasant Prince - 23-1 (was down to 22-1)

4) Northern Giant - 25-1

5) Yawanna Twist - 15-1

6) Jackson Bend - 11-1 (up from 12-1)

7) Lookin at Lucky - 5-2 (up from 2-1)

8) Super Saver - 9-5 (down from 2-1)

9) Caracortado - 18-1 (down from 19-1)

10) Paddy O'Prado - 8-1 (up from 7-1)

11) First Dude - 25-1

12) Dublin - 9-1 (first time in single digits today - could be 3rd choice)

Preakness Odds Update - 4:55 pm

1) Aikenite - 35-1

2) Schoolyard Dreams - 14-1 (bounced between 16 and 14 in the last couple of minutes)

3) Pleasant Prince - 25-1

4) Northern Giant - 25-1

5) Yawanna Twist - 15-1

6) Jackson Bend - 12-1 (up from 11-1)

7) Lookin at Lucky - 2-1

8) Super Saver - 2-1 (up from 9-5)

9) Caracortado - 19-1

10) Paddy O'Prado - 7-1

11) First Dude - 25-1

12) Dublin - 10-1 (still bouncing between 10-11)

Preakness Odds Update - 4:20 pm

1) Aikenite - 35-1

2) Schoolyard Dreams - 15-1

3) Pleasant Prince - 25-1

4) Northern Giant - 25-1

5) Yawanna Twist - 15-1

6) Jackson Bend - 11-1

7) Lookin at Lucky - 2-1

8) Super Saver - 9-5

9) Caracortado - 19-1 (down from 20-1)

10) Paddy O'Prado - 7-1

11) First Dude - 25-1

12) Dublin - 10-1 (down from 11-1 - still bouncing between 10-11)

Preakness Odds Update - 3:50 pm

1) Aikenite - 35-1

2) Schoolyard Dreams - 15-1

3) Pleasant Prince - 25-1

4) Northern Giant - 25-1

5) Yawanna Twist - 15-1

6) Jackson Bend - 11-1

7) Lookin at Lucky - 2-1

8) Super Saver - 9-5

9) Caracortado - 19-1 (down from 20-1)

10) Paddy O'Prado - 7-1

11) First Dude - 25-1

12) Dublin - 11-1 (up from 10-1 - been bouncing between 10-11)

Horse By Horse Look at the Preakness

Here's a quick look at the Preakness Dozen.

1) Aikenite (Career Record 8-1-2-2) - Trainer Todd Pletcher's "other" entrant's only win came last August at Saratoga. He usually puts in a good effort but appears a little overmatched here.

2) Schoolyard Dreams (Career Record - 6-2-2-1) - Do you remember Musket Man from last year? This horse has the same owner and trainer and should be close to the front. He hasn't run since finishing fourth to Eskendereya in the Wood Memorial but you should expect him to be in the thick of it down the stretch.

3) Pleasant Prince (Career Record - 9-1-2-2) - Expect him to be last early on and then make one big run as they turn for home. His best effort was a second place finish to Kentucky Derby runner-up Ice Box. If he's too far back, he may not be able to catch up.

4) Northern Giant (Career Record - 9-1-2-2) - He was on target for a run in the Derby before his last place finish in the Arkansas Derby last month. That effort is a big concern and may just be a little worn down after five races this year.

5) Yawanna Twist (Career Record - 4-2-2-0) - He has gotten better with each start but failed as the favorite in last month's Illinois Derby. His breeding suggests he won't want to go the Preakness distance but his trainer won this race a couple of years ago with Big Brown. His current odds are a little too short though.

6) Jackson Bend (Career Record - 10-5-4-0) - You can just throw out his performance in the Kentucky Derby (finished 12th). Now that he's back on a dry track, he should run much better. Not sure he will relish the Preakness distance but should be in the mix coming down the home stretch.

7) Lookin at Lucky (Career Record - 9-6-1-1) - He has been anything but lucky. The fact that he finished 6th in the Kentucky Derby despite getting bounced around like a pinball early in the race is remarkable. He has a new jockey, 25-year-old Martin Garcia, and that is bit of a concern but there is no questioning the horse's talent. He may be due for smooth sailing.

8) Super Saver (Career Record - 7-3-2-1) - The Kentucky Derby winner is out to prove to the world that his win two weeks ago wasn't a fluke. He will need to show the world that he can win away from Churchill Downs and also on a dry track. If "rockstar" jockey Calvin Borel can keep him clear of trouble again, he'll have a great shot to keep Triple Crown hopes alive and back up Borel's Triple Crown Guarantee.

9) Caracortado (Career Record -7-5-0-1) - He was destined to run in the Kentucky Derby until his 4th place finish last month in California. The key for him is to prove he can run on a normal dirt track. His biggest victories have come on the "artificial" dirt in California. If you like him, you will get great odds.

10) Paddy O'Prado (Career Record - 7-1-2-3) - His 3rd place finish in the Kentucky Derby was the best race of his life but now he has to prove, like Super Saver, that he can run well on a dry track away from Churchill Downs. The big question is whether he will be near the front early or drop back like he did in the Derby.

11) First Dude (Career Record - 6-1-3-1) - Trainer Dale Romans "other" horse comes off a third place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes last month. He's a horse with a lot of talent and Romans was really hoping he would have enough earnings to get into the Kentucky Derby. Another horse that will be a really good price. He's a live longshot.

12) Dublin (Career Record - 9-2-1-2) - The D. Wayne Lukas trained colt gets a new rider in Garrett Gomez. Depending on who you talk to, that's either a good or a bad thing. Gomez's experience and winning big races should help as Dublin also got into trouble in the Kentucky Derby. Although he hasn't won a race this year, this horse has been one of the most consistent. Definitely a horse to watch carefully.

Preakness Odds Update - 3:20 pm

1) Aikenite - 35-1

2) Schoolyard Dreams - 15-1

3) Pleasant Prince - 25-1

4) Northern Giant - 25-1 (down from 30-1)

5) Yawanna Twist - 15-1

6) Jackson Bend - 11-1

7) Lookin at Lucky - 2-1

8) Super Saver - 9-5

9) Caracortado - 20-1

10) Paddy O'Prado - 7-1 (down from 8-1)

11) First Dude - 25-1

12) Dublin - 10-1 (down from 11-1)

Preakness Odds Update - 2:50 pm

1) Aikenite - 35-1

2) Schoolyard Dreams - 15-1 (down from 16-1)

3) Pleasant Prince - 25-1

4) Northern Giant - 30-1 (up from 25-1)

5) Yawanna Twist - 15-1

6) Jackson Bend - 11-1

7) Lookin at Lucky - 2-1

8) Super Saver - 9-5

9) Caracortado - 20-1

10) Paddy O'Prado - 8-1

11) First Dude - 25-1

12) Dublin - 11-1 (up from 10-1)

Preakness Odds Update - 2:20 pm

1) Aikenite - 35-1

2) Schoolyard Dreams - 16-1

3) Pleasant Prince - 25-1

4) Northern Giant - 25-1

5) Yawanna Twist - 15-1

6) Jackson Bend - 11-1

7) Lookin at Lucky - 2-1

8) Super Saver - 9-5

9) Caracortado - 20-1

10) Paddy O'Prado - 8-1

11) First Dude - 25-1

12) Dublin - 10-1

Preakness Odds Update - 1:45 pm

1) Aikenite - 25-1

2) Schoolyard Dreams - 16-1

3) Pleasant Prince - 24-1

4) Northern Giant - 25-1

5) Yawanna Twist - 15-1

6) Jackson Bend - 11-1

7) Lookin at Lucky - 2-1

8) Super Saver - 9-5

9) Caracortado - 20-1

10) Paddy O'Prado - 8-1

11) First Dude - 25-1

12) Dublin - 11-1

In A World By Himself

Simply put, jockey Calvin Borel has become one of the greatest riders in Kentucky Derby history.

After another brilliant rail skimming ride nearly the entire race, Borel guided Super Saver to a 2 1/2 length victory over a fast closing Ice Box.

There's nothing fancy or difficult about what Borel does. He just puts his horse on the rail and saves as much ground as possible. And, despite his nickname of Calvin Bo-Rail, other jockeys are powerless to stop him in the "Run for the Roses."

To put into perspective of his accomplishments, here are some stats to ponder:

• His three Derby wins puts him in a tie for fourth all-time. (Five other jockey have three wins).

• He has three wins from his last four appearances is a streak only bested by Bill Hartack's three consecutive wins (1960-62-64).

• Borel's has three wins from just eight starts (.375 winning percentage). Earl Sande is the only other rider to have the 3-for-8 record.

• If you wagered $2 across the board (Win-Place-Show) on Borel in the last four years, you have turned a profit of $226.20 (thanks to ESPN's Pat Forde).

• He now only trails Hall of Fame riders Eddie Arcaro (5), Bill Hartack (5) and Bill Shoemaker (4) on the all-time wins list.

It remains to be seen if Super Saver is a Triple Crown quality horse but one thing we know for certain, Borel is one an elite category and we should expect him to add to that total for years to come.

Photo courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire