Some quick thoughts right before boarding a plane to Louisville:
The forecast for gloomy skies and rain for the next two days will radically alter a lot of the great racing that's on tap. It will be a shame if the track is sloppy on both days as we may not see the best effort of all the horses and/or having horses scratch due to off track conditions.
One of those horses is Zenyatta, the filly who was Horse of the Year runner-up last year. That would be such a shame as it would provide one of the greatest stages for the 5-year-old mare to make her 2009 debut and deprive the fans from seeing a special horse.
If the track is sloppy for the Kentucky Derby, my prediction is that Friesan Fire will become the post-time favorite as he won his last race very impressively in the slop.
After looking at the Ragozin Sheets for the Kentucky Oaks last night, Rachel Alexandra is not the lock I suspected she would have been. Could be a great race with Justwhistledixie.
They are boarding my flight. I am outta here. Next report will be from the Derby City. Doesn't get much better than that!!!
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Derby Draw Analysis - Winners & Losers
Even with the late defection of Win Willy due to a leg injury Wednesday morning, the Kentucky Derby field still reached 20 with the late addition of Nowhere to Hide. Now with the Post Position Draw complete, let's take a look at the winners and losers during the draw.
WINNERS
15 - Dunkirk- The highly touted and talented colt will need a lot of breaks to go his way and his starting spot is a good start. The 15 post is great because this is the first gate in the Auxiliary Starting Gate. (The main starting gate holds just 14 horses.) As a result there is a nice space to his left that will give crucial room to maneuver early in the race. He will likely drop back early but it's good to have a little cushion right after the start.
16 - Pioneerof the Nile - Leave it to three-time Derby winning trainer Bob Baffert to put his colt (right) in spot that been successful over the last few years. As Dunkirk is likely to take advantage of the extra space to his left, Pioneer should benefit from that and stay outside and away from a lot of the traditional bumping that goes on at the start of the race. The key will be not getting pushed to far outside on the first turn.
6 - Friesan Fire - Although it isn't a tremendous victory for him, trainer Larry Jones put his horse in a pretty solid starting position. With his tactical speed, the colt should be able to get near the early lead and settle in a good spot to make his run around the far turn. The only danger for him could be is if he is squeezed by another horse to his inside. With the forecast for rain and his love for a sloppy track, this spot could win up being a huge plus in the end.
LOSERS
19 - Desert Party - A horse that appeared to be powerhouse owner Godolphin's best shot to win the Derby, drew the "short straw" by having a late selection. The result left him in a slot that no horse has won from in the 135-year history of the Derby. Since Desert Party likes to be near the lead, jockey Ramon Dominguez will have a tough decision to make: push his horse early to be near the lead and potentially use up some "gas" or take a chance in not pushing the pedal but could be pushed out wide on the first turn.
1 - West Side Bernie - A lot of times, being on the rail, in the No. 1 starting gate is a good thing. In the Derby, it's usually a death knell. Only one horse (Ferdinand, 1986) in the last 46 years has won for this spot. The inside spot will probably make West Side Bernie get near the lead early which is contrary to his running style of dropping back. If he doesn't move up early, he could get shut off and lose all chance early on.
20 - Flying Private - D. Wayne Lukas (right), a Hall of Famer and four-time Derby winning trainer, has been a master of getting a horse ready for a big race. But this 50-1 shot already had his work cut out for him but drawing the outside post might have sealed his fate. Only Big Brown, the 2008 Derby winner, has won from the starting position, and this horse is no Big Brown. He will be pushed outside on both turns which will likely use up most of his energy.
CAUTION
13 - I Want Revenge - Although the 3-1 Derby favorite isn't in a bad starting position, he has the potential of getting squeezed by General Quarters and Atomic Rain. The big advantage for I Want Revenge is that he overcame plenty of trouble in the Wood Memorial and has a very versatile running style. Young jockey Joe Talamo will be tested once again.
Photos courtesy of Eclipse Sports Wire
WINNERS
15 - Dunkirk- The highly touted and talented colt will need a lot of breaks to go his way and his starting spot is a good start. The 15 post is great because this is the first gate in the Auxiliary Starting Gate. (The main starting gate holds just 14 horses.) As a result there is a nice space to his left that will give crucial room to maneuver early in the race. He will likely drop back early but it's good to have a little cushion right after the start.
16 - Pioneerof the Nile - Leave it to three-time Derby winning trainer Bob Baffert to put his colt (right) in spot that been successful over the last few years. As Dunkirk is likely to take advantage of the extra space to his left, Pioneer should benefit from that and stay outside and away from a lot of the traditional bumping that goes on at the start of the race. The key will be not getting pushed to far outside on the first turn.
6 - Friesan Fire - Although it isn't a tremendous victory for him, trainer Larry Jones put his horse in a pretty solid starting position. With his tactical speed, the colt should be able to get near the early lead and settle in a good spot to make his run around the far turn. The only danger for him could be is if he is squeezed by another horse to his inside. With the forecast for rain and his love for a sloppy track, this spot could win up being a huge plus in the end.
LOSERS
19 - Desert Party - A horse that appeared to be powerhouse owner Godolphin's best shot to win the Derby, drew the "short straw" by having a late selection. The result left him in a slot that no horse has won from in the 135-year history of the Derby. Since Desert Party likes to be near the lead, jockey Ramon Dominguez will have a tough decision to make: push his horse early to be near the lead and potentially use up some "gas" or take a chance in not pushing the pedal but could be pushed out wide on the first turn.
1 - West Side Bernie - A lot of times, being on the rail, in the No. 1 starting gate is a good thing. In the Derby, it's usually a death knell. Only one horse (Ferdinand, 1986) in the last 46 years has won for this spot. The inside spot will probably make West Side Bernie get near the lead early which is contrary to his running style of dropping back. If he doesn't move up early, he could get shut off and lose all chance early on.
20 - Flying Private - D. Wayne Lukas (right), a Hall of Famer and four-time Derby winning trainer, has been a master of getting a horse ready for a big race. But this 50-1 shot already had his work cut out for him but drawing the outside post might have sealed his fate. Only Big Brown, the 2008 Derby winner, has won from the starting position, and this horse is no Big Brown. He will be pushed outside on both turns which will likely use up most of his energy.
CAUTION
13 - I Want Revenge - Although the 3-1 Derby favorite isn't in a bad starting position, he has the potential of getting squeezed by General Quarters and Atomic Rain. The big advantage for I Want Revenge is that he overcame plenty of trouble in the Wood Memorial and has a very versatile running style. Young jockey Joe Talamo will be tested once again.
Photos courtesy of Eclipse Sports Wire
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Tuesday Morning News
So much for being done with Derby horses being injured.
Square Eddie, one of the better 2-year-olds from last year, was pulled from the Kentucky Derby by trainer Doug O'Neill this morning after re-aggravating a shin injury that kept him on the sidelines most of the winter. The latest ailment doesn't appear to be serious but it certainly ends his hope for wearing roses on Saturday.
The workout of the morning came from Wood Memorial winner and likely Derby favorite I Want Revenge. With his regular jockey (and now TV star) Joe Talamo aboard, the son of Stephen Got Even, worked a half mile in :47.20 (fractional splits - 11.40 (1/8 mile), 23.20 (1/4 mile), 35 2/5 (3/8 mile) and finished out the work going 5/8 mile in 1:00. 80.
Most of the attention over the past few days had shifted away from I Want Revenge to other major contenders like Friesan Fire, Dunkirk and Pioneerof the Nile. But after his work on Tuesday morning, that should erase a lot of doubts if the Jeff Mullins-trained colt can handle the Churchill Downs surface.
Let's hope that Mullins' troubles are behind him for now and the attention does stay focused on the horse the rest of the week.
The other big news on Tuesday is that we will have the field for the Kentucky Oaks, the sister race to the Derby. Rachel Alexandra, who has been nearly untouchable this year, will be the prohibitive favorite.
There are also some great races slated for the race preceding the Oaks and we'll dive more into those later.
Square Eddie, one of the better 2-year-olds from last year, was pulled from the Kentucky Derby by trainer Doug O'Neill this morning after re-aggravating a shin injury that kept him on the sidelines most of the winter. The latest ailment doesn't appear to be serious but it certainly ends his hope for wearing roses on Saturday.
The workout of the morning came from Wood Memorial winner and likely Derby favorite I Want Revenge. With his regular jockey (and now TV star) Joe Talamo aboard, the son of Stephen Got Even, worked a half mile in :47.20 (fractional splits - 11.40 (1/8 mile), 23.20 (1/4 mile), 35 2/5 (3/8 mile) and finished out the work going 5/8 mile in 1:00. 80.
Most of the attention over the past few days had shifted away from I Want Revenge to other major contenders like Friesan Fire, Dunkirk and Pioneerof the Nile. But after his work on Tuesday morning, that should erase a lot of doubts if the Jeff Mullins-trained colt can handle the Churchill Downs surface.
Let's hope that Mullins' troubles are behind him for now and the attention does stay focused on the horse the rest of the week.
The other big news on Tuesday is that we will have the field for the Kentucky Oaks, the sister race to the Derby. Rachel Alexandra, who has been nearly untouchable this year, will be the prohibitive favorite.
There are also some great races slated for the race preceding the Oaks and we'll dive more into those later.
Monday, April 27, 2009
Quality Road OUT & Other Notes
The inevitable finally happened on Monday morning as Quality Road was officially taken out of the consideration for the Kentucky Derby.
Trainer Jimmy Jerkens did the right thing and lived up to his word by ending his Derby dream. The horse was supposed to work in New York and board a plane for Louisville on Tuesday but the horse was a little sore this morning and that was the final nail in his Derby coffin.
Jerkens indicated that the Preakness and Belmont are still possible. The Preakness might a great race for him as it is a little shorter than the Derby and horses with tactical speed seem to thrive in the Preakness.
Other Monday headlines included an extremely busy morning with final workouts with one horse blazing down the stretch.
Friesan Fire - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) :57.80 (Fastest of 26 horses)
The remarkable thing about this workout is that was about a second and a half faster than everyone else. At first blush, I am concerned that this fast work might take something out of the horse. But two things there are in Friesan Fire's favor: 1) He hasn't run since March 14 so a fast workout is something he probably needed. 2) Hard Spun had a similarly fast workout and he seemed just fine come Derby Day - he ran 2nd.
Other Workouts (trainer):
Advice (Todd Pletcher) - 4 furlongs (1/2 mile) 47.20 (3rd of 26 horses)
Chocolate Candy (Jerry Hollendorfer) - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) :59.20 (2nd of 26 horses)
Flying Private (D. Wayne Lukas) - 4 furlongs (1/2 mile) 47.40 (4th of 26 horses)
Join in the Dance (Todd Pletcher) - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) 1:00.20 (5th of 26 horses)
Mine That Bird (Bennie Woolley) - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) 1:02 (19th of 26 horses)
Pioneerof the Nile (Bob Baffert) - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) 1:01 (11th of 26 horses)
Take the Points (Todd Pletcher) - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) 1:00.20 (5th of 26 horses)
Win Willy (McLean Robertson) - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) 1:02.40 (20th of 26 horses)
Only one major horse left to work - Wood Memorial winner I Want Revenge.
Trainer Jimmy Jerkens did the right thing and lived up to his word by ending his Derby dream. The horse was supposed to work in New York and board a plane for Louisville on Tuesday but the horse was a little sore this morning and that was the final nail in his Derby coffin.
Jerkens indicated that the Preakness and Belmont are still possible. The Preakness might a great race for him as it is a little shorter than the Derby and horses with tactical speed seem to thrive in the Preakness.
Other Monday headlines included an extremely busy morning with final workouts with one horse blazing down the stretch.
Friesan Fire - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) :57.80 (Fastest of 26 horses)
The remarkable thing about this workout is that was about a second and a half faster than everyone else. At first blush, I am concerned that this fast work might take something out of the horse. But two things there are in Friesan Fire's favor: 1) He hasn't run since March 14 so a fast workout is something he probably needed. 2) Hard Spun had a similarly fast workout and he seemed just fine come Derby Day - he ran 2nd.
Other Workouts (trainer):
Advice (Todd Pletcher) - 4 furlongs (1/2 mile) 47.20 (3rd of 26 horses)
Chocolate Candy (Jerry Hollendorfer) - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) :59.20 (2nd of 26 horses)
Flying Private (D. Wayne Lukas) - 4 furlongs (1/2 mile) 47.40 (4th of 26 horses)
Join in the Dance (Todd Pletcher) - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) 1:00.20 (5th of 26 horses)
Mine That Bird (Bennie Woolley) - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) 1:02 (19th of 26 horses)
Pioneerof the Nile (Bob Baffert) - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) 1:01 (11th of 26 horses)
Take the Points (Todd Pletcher) - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) 1:00.20 (5th of 26 horses)
Win Willy (McLean Robertson) - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) 1:02.40 (20th of 26 horses)
Only one major horse left to work - Wood Memorial winner I Want Revenge.
Sunday, April 26, 2009
Not Top Quality
With just six days until the Kentucky Derby, every piece of news on the contenders is analyzed and then over analyzed by handicappers and fans alike. But one piece of news is tough to ignore no matter how many times it is brought up in the precious few days left before the race.
The quarter crack issue of Quality Road was a huge story a couple of weeks ago when the world learned he developed a quarter crack. Although it sounds relatively innocent, the malady can be painful and has been to known to put horses on the sidelines for weeks.
Trained Jimmy Jerkens (left), the son of Hall of Famer H. Allen Jerkens, called in one of the best in the racing business, Dr. Ian McKinlay, to deal with the initial quarter crack. After days of treatment and cautious training, Quality Road seemed to have left the problem behind and was back on target to run in the Derby. Low and behold, another crack developed on Friday and Jerkens called McKinlay back to perform his magic again.
On Sunday, there was a little optimism in the Quality Road camp but the damage already may have been done.
"If he takes one bad step anywhere, forget it." Jerkens said.
In my mind, his Derby chances are compromised and Jerkens should look to the Preakness and Belmont. Having a chance to run in the Derby can be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity but if you are going win America's greatest race, the horse needs to be 100 percent.
Jerkens is a good horseman and hopefully logic will prevail and the talented colt will be on the sidelines on Saturday. If he does run and you choose to bet him, just know you are getting damaged goods.
Monday, April 20, 2009
What You Might Have Missed Monday....
On a rainy day in Louisville, there wasn't a lot of Kentucky Derby news but there were a few highlights.
The field of horses wanting to run in the Derby shrunk to 23 but for those in the Top 20, now all but one is "definite."
The only horse that is on the fence is Advice, the Todd Pletcher-trained winner of Saturday's Coolmore Lexington at Keeneland. It would be surprising if the horse didn't run but a two week turn around is a little short. Pletcher pulled Take the Points from Derby consideration and is now likely to run in the Lone Star Derby.
The Derby jockey shuffle continued as Robby Albarado took the mount on the D. Wayne Lukas trained Flying Private.
Calvin Borel, who captured the 2007 Derby aboard Street Sense, picked up Mine That Bird.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Square Eddie is without a jockey after Edgar Prado chose Dunkirk and Rafael Bejarano stayed with Arkansas Derby winner Papa Clem. The best available riders that trainer Doug O'Neill could chose are: Alex Solis, Tyler Baze, David Flores and Javier Castellano. (My prediction - Baze).
Alan Garcia and Ramon Dominguez are slated to ride the Godolphin-owned duo of Desert Party and Regal Ransom. What hasn't been decided is which jockey will ride which horse. Frankie Dettori, who rode Desert Party in Dubai is not coming over for the Derby. Not a big vote of confidence.
As many as six Derby contenders are slated to work on Tuesday:
Pioneerof the Nile, I Want Revenge, Chocolate Candy, Win Willy, Mine That Bird and Atomic Rain.
The field of horses wanting to run in the Derby shrunk to 23 but for those in the Top 20, now all but one is "definite."
The only horse that is on the fence is Advice, the Todd Pletcher-trained winner of Saturday's Coolmore Lexington at Keeneland. It would be surprising if the horse didn't run but a two week turn around is a little short. Pletcher pulled Take the Points from Derby consideration and is now likely to run in the Lone Star Derby.
The Derby jockey shuffle continued as Robby Albarado took the mount on the D. Wayne Lukas trained Flying Private.
Calvin Borel, who captured the 2007 Derby aboard Street Sense, picked up Mine That Bird.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Square Eddie is without a jockey after Edgar Prado chose Dunkirk and Rafael Bejarano stayed with Arkansas Derby winner Papa Clem. The best available riders that trainer Doug O'Neill could chose are: Alex Solis, Tyler Baze, David Flores and Javier Castellano. (My prediction - Baze).
Alan Garcia and Ramon Dominguez are slated to ride the Godolphin-owned duo of Desert Party and Regal Ransom. What hasn't been decided is which jockey will ride which horse. Frankie Dettori, who rode Desert Party in Dubai is not coming over for the Derby. Not a big vote of confidence.
As many as six Derby contenders are slated to work on Tuesday:
Pioneerof the Nile, I Want Revenge, Chocolate Candy, Win Willy, Mine That Bird and Atomic Rain.
Monday News/Weekend Review
As of Monday morning, we now sit at 25 horses that want to run in the Kentucky Derby. As we all know, there's a small problem....there are only 20 spots available.
The list got a little smaller on Monday afternoon when trainer Chris Block officially declared Giant Oak out of Derby consideration. Not that this was a big surprise. He was off the Derby trail after his two sub-par efforts at the Fair Grounds during the winter but there was a faint hope after running second in the Illinois Derby. After deliberating for a couple of weeks, Block pulled the plug Monday. With his defection, Summer Bird becomes #2o on the Graded Stakes earnings list.
Other still waiting for defections: Join in the Dance, Take the Points, Atomic Rain, Just a Coincidence and Flat Out.
The others that are not definite yet (with their money rank): Regal Ransom (1), Square Eddie (3), Win Willy (14), and Advice (15). My hunch is that all of these horse will run.
The weekend highlights include:
Workouts on Sunday:
The list got a little smaller on Monday afternoon when trainer Chris Block officially declared Giant Oak out of Derby consideration. Not that this was a big surprise. He was off the Derby trail after his two sub-par efforts at the Fair Grounds during the winter but there was a faint hope after running second in the Illinois Derby. After deliberating for a couple of weeks, Block pulled the plug Monday. With his defection, Summer Bird becomes #2o on the Graded Stakes earnings list.
Other still waiting for defections: Join in the Dance, Take the Points, Atomic Rain, Just a Coincidence and Flat Out.
The others that are not definite yet (with their money rank): Regal Ransom (1), Square Eddie (3), Win Willy (14), and Advice (15). My hunch is that all of these horse will run.
The weekend highlights include:
- Advice winning Saturday's Coolmore Lexington Stakes at Keeneland in a last-to-first move that gives trainer Todd Pletcher three Derby contenders (Dunkirk (17th in earnings) and Take the Points (23rd in earnings). One big strike against Advice - all but one race has been on "artificial" dirt. The race on the dirt was a fifth place finish in the Sunland Park Derby.
- Square Eddie, already with plenty of money to get in the Derby, ran third in the Lexington and appears he's a "go".
- Jockey Garrett Gomez, weighing which of two Derby heavyweights to ride, chose Pioneerof the Nile. Pletcher then reached out to Edgar Prado to fill the void on Dunkirk. That's a pretty good "bench player."
Workouts on Sunday:
- Papa Clem - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) at Churchill in 1:04.60
- Friesan Fire - 6 furlongs (3/4 mile) at Keeneland in 1:39.60
- Mine That Bird - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) at Churchill in 1:01
- Take The Points - 4 furlongs (1/2 mile) at Churchill in :47.40
Saturday, April 18, 2009
Saturday News
Here is the report of the Kentucky Derby contender workouts this morning.
At Churchill Downs:
The Godolphin owned and Saeed bin Suroor trained duo:
Regal Ransom - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) in :59.80. The fourth fastest of 28.
Desert Party - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile in 1:00.20. The sixth best of 28
"Both of them seemed to grab the track really good," said assistant trainer Rick Mettee.
Word is that Desert Party has looked tremendous since shipping back to the United State from the Middle East last week. Suroor was quoted yesterday in Ireland that he believes Desert Party is best chance ever to win the Derby.
Both horses aren't definite for the Derby but it would be a surprise to see one sit on the sideline.
The other horse to work out at Churchill:
Musket Man - 6 furlongs (3/4 mile) in 1:13. Fastest of three.
This was the first workout since he won the Illinois Derby and moved his overall record to five wins in six starts. Trained Derek Ryan was thrilled afterward
"It went very well - it couldn't have been a better work," he said.
The other big workout occurred in South Florida.
Dunkirk - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) in 59.90. The fastest of 12.
The $3.7 million auction purchase, trained by Todd Pletcher, will not arrive at Churchill Downs until April 28.
Expected to workout on Sunday is Arkansas Derby winner Papa Clem (7 furlongs) as well as Take The Points. Pletcher said Take The Points , currently 24th on the Graded Stakes Earnings List, is still not definite to run in the Derby but any defections could change that.
At Churchill Downs:
The Godolphin owned and Saeed bin Suroor trained duo:
Regal Ransom - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) in :59.80. The fourth fastest of 28.
Desert Party - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile in 1:00.20. The sixth best of 28
"Both of them seemed to grab the track really good," said assistant trainer Rick Mettee.
Word is that Desert Party has looked tremendous since shipping back to the United State from the Middle East last week. Suroor was quoted yesterday in Ireland that he believes Desert Party is best chance ever to win the Derby.
Both horses aren't definite for the Derby but it would be a surprise to see one sit on the sideline.
The other horse to work out at Churchill:
Musket Man - 6 furlongs (3/4 mile) in 1:13. Fastest of three.
This was the first workout since he won the Illinois Derby and moved his overall record to five wins in six starts. Trained Derek Ryan was thrilled afterward
"It went very well - it couldn't have been a better work," he said.
The other big workout occurred in South Florida.
Dunkirk - 5 furlongs (5/8 mile) in 59.90. The fastest of 12.
The $3.7 million auction purchase, trained by Todd Pletcher, will not arrive at Churchill Downs until April 28.
Expected to workout on Sunday is Arkansas Derby winner Papa Clem (7 furlongs) as well as Take The Points. Pletcher said Take The Points , currently 24th on the Graded Stakes Earnings List, is still not definite to run in the Derby but any defections could change that.
Friday, April 17, 2009
Send in The Clowns or Birds
The ever changing Kentucky Derby field fluctuated again on Friday as two horses that were on the fence are going to fly to Louisville and jump into the fray. But these might be more gate fillers than legitimate contenders.
Mine That Bird and Summer Bird, both sons of 2004 Belmont Stakes winner Birdstone, are the latest to join the crowded field but the weakest of the two is the only one guaranteed a spot in the 20-horse starting gate.
Mine That Bird (overall record, 8-4-1-0, "real dirt" record, 2-0-1-0,
18th on Graded Earnings List) -
The colt has yet to win this year in two starts and has faced sub par competition at Sunland Park in New Mexico. Last year, while racing in Canada on the "artificial" dirt (Polytrack), he won four of five starts but ran last in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in October.
The trainer, Bennie Woolley, told The Blood-Horse that this was "their one shot at the Derby." No one can blame them for that. Having a chance to run in the Kentucky Derby is an experience that's hard to pass up but don't waste your money at the betting windows on him.
Summer Bird,(overall record, 3-1-0-1, "real dirt" record, 3-1-0-1,
21st on Graded Earnings List) -
Here is a colt that's getting better and better with each start. He was third in the Arkansas Derby behind Papa Clem after dropping way behind early in the race. But he has just three career races and it's a lot to ask a young inexperienced horse to run well, let alone win, the Derby. He might be a horse to watch as the year unfolds.
Mine That Bird and Summer Bird, both sons of 2004 Belmont Stakes winner Birdstone, are the latest to join the crowded field but the weakest of the two is the only one guaranteed a spot in the 20-horse starting gate.
Mine That Bird (overall record, 8-4-1-0, "real dirt" record, 2-0-1-0,
18th on Graded Earnings List) -
The colt has yet to win this year in two starts and has faced sub par competition at Sunland Park in New Mexico. Last year, while racing in Canada on the "artificial" dirt (Polytrack), he won four of five starts but ran last in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in October.
The trainer, Bennie Woolley, told The Blood-Horse that this was "their one shot at the Derby." No one can blame them for that. Having a chance to run in the Kentucky Derby is an experience that's hard to pass up but don't waste your money at the betting windows on him.
Summer Bird,(overall record, 3-1-0-1, "real dirt" record, 3-1-0-1,
21st on Graded Earnings List) -
Here is a colt that's getting better and better with each start. He was third in the Arkansas Derby behind Papa Clem after dropping way behind early in the race. But he has just three career races and it's a lot to ask a young inexperienced horse to run well, let alone win, the Derby. He might be a horse to watch as the year unfolds.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Analyzing the Top Contenders
With a little over two weeks before the 135th Kentucky Derby, I thought I would take a quick look at some of the top contenders are expected to run Churchill Downs.
And, of course, just when you think you've got the field of 20 horses for the Derby all figured out, something comes out of nowhere to change it.
Joining the Derby fray on Thursday was Flat Out who was 6th in the Arkansas Derby but currently is 28th on the Graded Stakes Earnings list. Bailing on the Derby was Mafaaz, the European based horse that flopped in the Toyota Blue Grass on Saturday. The owners also moved the horse to the barn of NY-based trainer Kiaran McLaughlin so perhaps a run in the Belmont Stakes?
Now, here's a look in earnings order (as well as their record on "conventional" dirt) at the leading contenders for the "Run for the Roses":
(record - starts-wins-second-third)
Regal Ransom (Overall Record 5-2-2-0, "Real Dirt" record 1-1-0-0) -
One of two Godolphin owned horses in the Derby. The tough part for them is they run against suspect competition in Dubai and they've never come close to winning the Derby. Don't think this one will be the one to change that.
Pioneerof the Nile (Overall Record 8-5-0-1, "Real Dirt" record 0-0-0-0) -
The best from California and the horses from the West Coast have been doing great when they've come East (see I Want Revenge and Papa Clem.) Won four straight since moving to trainer Bob Baffert in the winter. Never run on "conventional" dirt but his parents both ran well at Churchill Downs. A major contender and trained by a guy who has won three Derbys. Not bad.
Square Eddie (Overall Record 7-2-3-1, "Real Dirt" record 0-0-0-0) -
Former European took the world by storm when he won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in October but was injured in January and presumed out of the Derby. Low and behold, he's back and running this weekend at Keeneland. Could be a lot to ask him to win the Derby with just one race in the last 3 1/2 months.
I Want Revenge (Overall Record 8-3-1-4, "Real Dirt" record 2-2-0-0) -
The "hot" horse on the Derby trail. His two East Coast races have been super impressive and has taken a liking to life away from the artificial dirt. If his star crossed trainer, Jeff Mullins, can stay out of trouble (which has been difficult since winning the Gotham), he is the horse to beat.
Papa Clem (Overall Record 6-2-2-0, "Real Dirt" record 2-1-1-0) -
Yet another West Coast who become a major contender. He won the Arkansas Derby last weekend and was narrowly beaten by Pioneerof the Nile in February. Big problem though is not sure he wants to go the Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles.
Desert Party (Overall Record 6-4-1-0, "Real Dirt" record 2-1-0-0) -
The best of the Middle East horses was beaten by stablemate Regal Ransom last time. The $2.1 million auction purchase has loads of talent and is their owners' best chance to win the Derby in years but the Middle East to US experiment has been a failure to date. Don't think he wins but maybe somewhere in the Top 5.
Quality Road (Overall Record 4-3-1-0, "Real Dirt" Record 4-3-1-0) -
RED FLAG WARNING - Was a major contender after winning the Florida Derby last month but a quarter crack was found in his foot last week. The crack usually is painful but had a nice workout this week in New York. Watch this very carefully.
General Quarters (Overall Record 11-3-3-1, "Real Dirt" Record 7-2-2-1)
By far the best story of the Kentucky Derby. Owned and trained by a 75-year-old former high school principal with just one horse in his stable, the gray colt (right) has won two of his last three including the Blue Grass Stakes. Can he overcome the curse of winning the Blue Grass? Only two horses in the last 36 years have won both (Strike the Gold, 1991 & Spectacular Bid. 1979).
Friesan Fire (Overall Record 7-4-1-1, "Real Dirt" Record 7-4-1-1)
On paper, he looks like one of the best horses in the race but when you a look a little closer, there are a couple of concerns. Chief among them is that he has not run since March 14 and that gives him seven weeks between starts. No horse has won the Derby with that much time between races since Needles in 1956. The other concern is that his best race came on a wet track. Watch how he trains the next two weeks. (This is trainer Larry Jones only horse left after Old Fashioned retired this week.)
Musket Man (Overall Record 6-5-0-1, "Real Dirt" Record 6-5-0-1)
He might be the most underrated horse in the field considering his lofty record. He beat a poor field in the Illinois Derby but he defeated General Quarters in the Tampa Bay Derby last month. The big concern is his bloodlines as there doesn't appear to be stamina in his family.
Hold Me Back (Overall Record 5-3-0-1, "Real Dirt" Record 1-0-0-0)
Another horse with a very nice record but appears to be an "artificial" dirt specialist. His only real dirt race was a distance fifth place finish last November. He has the benefit of trainer Bill Mott, one of the all-time best, but he needs to prove he can duplicate his artificial dirt form on the Churchill Downs surface.
West Side Bernie (Overall Record 7-2-2-1, "Real Dirt" Record 4-1-2-1)
A hard trying horse that does not have a marquee win but always seems to give an honest effort each time. Another big plus for him is that he has never run a race shorter than 1 mile and 70 yards which could prove to be beneficial when running 1 1/4 miles in the Derby. Could be a nice longshot to run second or third.
Chocolate Candy (Overall Record 9-4-2-1, "Real Dirt" Record 0-0-0-0)
WISE GUY ALERT - After knocking off the best 3-year-olds in Northern California, the horse, owned by Sid & Jenny Craig, ran a close second to Pioneerof the Nile in early April. He is definitely one to watch but will probably be a "wise guy" horse because of good runner-up finish last time. As a result, he might over bet.
Dunkirk (Overall Record 3-2-1-0, "Real Dirt" Record 3-2-1-0)
WISE GUY ALERT - The most expensive and perhaps most talented horse in the field. His regal breeding (his mom, Secret Status, won the Kentucky Oaks) fetched $3.7 million at public auction and could be the next big star in racing. But, he only has three lifetime starts and only one horse in Derby history has won the "Run for the Roses" with just three outings (Regret, 1915). Curlin tried it a couple of years ago and ran third. Be careful if you bet him.
All photos courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire
And, of course, just when you think you've got the field of 20 horses for the Derby all figured out, something comes out of nowhere to change it.
Joining the Derby fray on Thursday was Flat Out who was 6th in the Arkansas Derby but currently is 28th on the Graded Stakes Earnings list. Bailing on the Derby was Mafaaz, the European based horse that flopped in the Toyota Blue Grass on Saturday. The owners also moved the horse to the barn of NY-based trainer Kiaran McLaughlin so perhaps a run in the Belmont Stakes?
Now, here's a look in earnings order (as well as their record on "conventional" dirt) at the leading contenders for the "Run for the Roses":
(record - starts-wins-second-third)
Regal Ransom (Overall Record 5-2-2-0, "Real Dirt" record 1-1-0-0) -
One of two Godolphin owned horses in the Derby. The tough part for them is they run against suspect competition in Dubai and they've never come close to winning the Derby. Don't think this one will be the one to change that.
Pioneerof the Nile (Overall Record 8-5-0-1, "Real Dirt" record 0-0-0-0) -
The best from California and the horses from the West Coast have been doing great when they've come East (see I Want Revenge and Papa Clem.) Won four straight since moving to trainer Bob Baffert in the winter. Never run on "conventional" dirt but his parents both ran well at Churchill Downs. A major contender and trained by a guy who has won three Derbys. Not bad.
Square Eddie (Overall Record 7-2-3-1, "Real Dirt" record 0-0-0-0) -
Former European took the world by storm when he won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in October but was injured in January and presumed out of the Derby. Low and behold, he's back and running this weekend at Keeneland. Could be a lot to ask him to win the Derby with just one race in the last 3 1/2 months.
I Want Revenge (Overall Record 8-3-1-4, "Real Dirt" record 2-2-0-0) -
The "hot" horse on the Derby trail. His two East Coast races have been super impressive and has taken a liking to life away from the artificial dirt. If his star crossed trainer, Jeff Mullins, can stay out of trouble (which has been difficult since winning the Gotham), he is the horse to beat.
Papa Clem (Overall Record 6-2-2-0, "Real Dirt" record 2-1-1-0) -
Yet another West Coast who become a major contender. He won the Arkansas Derby last weekend and was narrowly beaten by Pioneerof the Nile in February. Big problem though is not sure he wants to go the Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles.
Desert Party (Overall Record 6-4-1-0, "Real Dirt" record 2-1-0-0) -
The best of the Middle East horses was beaten by stablemate Regal Ransom last time. The $2.1 million auction purchase has loads of talent and is their owners' best chance to win the Derby in years but the Middle East to US experiment has been a failure to date. Don't think he wins but maybe somewhere in the Top 5.
Quality Road (Overall Record 4-3-1-0, "Real Dirt" Record 4-3-1-0) -
RED FLAG WARNING - Was a major contender after winning the Florida Derby last month but a quarter crack was found in his foot last week. The crack usually is painful but had a nice workout this week in New York. Watch this very carefully.
General Quarters (Overall Record 11-3-3-1, "Real Dirt" Record 7-2-2-1)
By far the best story of the Kentucky Derby. Owned and trained by a 75-year-old former high school principal with just one horse in his stable, the gray colt (right) has won two of his last three including the Blue Grass Stakes. Can he overcome the curse of winning the Blue Grass? Only two horses in the last 36 years have won both (Strike the Gold, 1991 & Spectacular Bid. 1979).
Friesan Fire (Overall Record 7-4-1-1, "Real Dirt" Record 7-4-1-1)
On paper, he looks like one of the best horses in the race but when you a look a little closer, there are a couple of concerns. Chief among them is that he has not run since March 14 and that gives him seven weeks between starts. No horse has won the Derby with that much time between races since Needles in 1956. The other concern is that his best race came on a wet track. Watch how he trains the next two weeks. (This is trainer Larry Jones only horse left after Old Fashioned retired this week.)
Musket Man (Overall Record 6-5-0-1, "Real Dirt" Record 6-5-0-1)
He might be the most underrated horse in the field considering his lofty record. He beat a poor field in the Illinois Derby but he defeated General Quarters in the Tampa Bay Derby last month. The big concern is his bloodlines as there doesn't appear to be stamina in his family.
Hold Me Back (Overall Record 5-3-0-1, "Real Dirt" Record 1-0-0-0)
Another horse with a very nice record but appears to be an "artificial" dirt specialist. His only real dirt race was a distance fifth place finish last November. He has the benefit of trainer Bill Mott, one of the all-time best, but he needs to prove he can duplicate his artificial dirt form on the Churchill Downs surface.
West Side Bernie (Overall Record 7-2-2-1, "Real Dirt" Record 4-1-2-1)
A hard trying horse that does not have a marquee win but always seems to give an honest effort each time. Another big plus for him is that he has never run a race shorter than 1 mile and 70 yards which could prove to be beneficial when running 1 1/4 miles in the Derby. Could be a nice longshot to run second or third.
Chocolate Candy (Overall Record 9-4-2-1, "Real Dirt" Record 0-0-0-0)
WISE GUY ALERT - After knocking off the best 3-year-olds in Northern California, the horse, owned by Sid & Jenny Craig, ran a close second to Pioneerof the Nile in early April. He is definitely one to watch but will probably be a "wise guy" horse because of good runner-up finish last time. As a result, he might over bet.
Dunkirk (Overall Record 3-2-1-0, "Real Dirt" Record 3-2-1-0)
WISE GUY ALERT - The most expensive and perhaps most talented horse in the field. His regal breeding (his mom, Secret Status, won the Kentucky Oaks) fetched $3.7 million at public auction and could be the next big star in racing. But, he only has three lifetime starts and only one horse in Derby history has won the "Run for the Roses" with just three outings (Regret, 1915). Curlin tried it a couple of years ago and ran third. Be careful if you bet him.
All photos courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire
Sunday, April 12, 2009
Tough Break for Larry Jones
Trainer Larry Jones, who earlier this year had two of the top contenders for the Kentucky Derby, lost one of his stars Saturday night as Old Fashioned suffered a fractured right knee according to the Daily Racing Form.
The DRF story reported that the horse is expected to be sent to Lexington, Kentucky on Monday for further evaluation.
If he does not race again, Old Fashioned finished with an impressive record of four wins and two second place finishes in six starts. He ran second in his last two races, including Saturday's tough loss in the Arkansas Derby to Papa Clem.
It's a shame that Larry Jones lost a horse that showed so much promise just a few weeks ago. Jones is one of the "good guys" in the sport and in what is supposed to have been his final year as a trainer, winning the Kentucky Derby would be a fitting race to add to his resume.
His lone Derby hopeful is now Friesan Fire who won the Louisiana Derby on March 14. The horse will not race again until the Derby which means he will attempt to become the first horse since Needles (1956) to win the "Run for the Roses" off a 7-week layoff.
The DRF story reported that the horse is expected to be sent to Lexington, Kentucky on Monday for further evaluation.
If he does not race again, Old Fashioned finished with an impressive record of four wins and two second place finishes in six starts. He ran second in his last two races, including Saturday's tough loss in the Arkansas Derby to Papa Clem.
It's a shame that Larry Jones lost a horse that showed so much promise just a few weeks ago. Jones is one of the "good guys" in the sport and in what is supposed to have been his final year as a trainer, winning the Kentucky Derby would be a fitting race to add to his resume.
His lone Derby hopeful is now Friesan Fire who won the Louisiana Derby on March 14. The horse will not race again until the Derby which means he will attempt to become the first horse since Needles (1956) to win the "Run for the Roses" off a 7-week layoff.
Saturday, April 11, 2009
One Trick Pony
Horse racing was searching for a good and heartwarming story after Jeff Mullins, who trains likely Kentucky Derby favorite I Want Revenge, was caught by New York racing officials giving a horse cough medicine. The search ended in Lexington as a man with just one horse, General Quarters, in his barn captured the $750,000 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland.
Tom McCarthy, a 75-year-old retired high school principal, acquired General Quarters for just $20,000 out of race at Churchill Downs last May. After a very ordinary 2008, the gray colt gave his owner/trainer the ultimate lottery ticket in 2009 - winning two of four starts including two major Kentucky Derby prep races.
And, oh by the way, the horse was earned $641,375 in his career. Not bad.
The racing world was introduced earlier this year to McCarthy when he won the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa on Valentine's Day. Now McCarthy and his one horse will take center stage in Louisville as one of the major contenders for the Run for the Roses.
The Blue Grass served another important purpose - eliminating some of the Derby pretenders. Looks like only three horses will move on to Louisville: General Quarters, Hold Me Back and Terrain. The big question mark is European import Mafaaz. He ran 8th but the owner and trainer were non-committal as to his next race. (Mafaaz has a guaranteed spot in the Derby as he won the Kentucky Derby Challenge Stakes in England last month.)
The Arkansas Derby proved to be a weak race as Old Fashioned, once on top of many Derby contender lists, couldn't hold off Papa Clem. The loss marked the second straight defeat for Old Fashioned after being rattling off four straights wins to begin his career.
The interesting side note to Papa Clem beat I Want Revenge in February at Santa Anita. Papa Clem is the second high profile Southern California based horse to make a successful transition from the artificial "pro ride" surface to conventional dirt.
Only one more prep race to go - The Coolmore Lexington next Saturday at Keeneland. A full field is expected headed by Derby contender Square Eddie.
Tom McCarthy, a 75-year-old retired high school principal, acquired General Quarters for just $20,000 out of race at Churchill Downs last May. After a very ordinary 2008, the gray colt gave his owner/trainer the ultimate lottery ticket in 2009 - winning two of four starts including two major Kentucky Derby prep races.
And, oh by the way, the horse was earned $641,375 in his career. Not bad.
The racing world was introduced earlier this year to McCarthy when he won the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa on Valentine's Day. Now McCarthy and his one horse will take center stage in Louisville as one of the major contenders for the Run for the Roses.
The Blue Grass served another important purpose - eliminating some of the Derby pretenders. Looks like only three horses will move on to Louisville: General Quarters, Hold Me Back and Terrain. The big question mark is European import Mafaaz. He ran 8th but the owner and trainer were non-committal as to his next race. (Mafaaz has a guaranteed spot in the Derby as he won the Kentucky Derby Challenge Stakes in England last month.)
The Arkansas Derby proved to be a weak race as Old Fashioned, once on top of many Derby contender lists, couldn't hold off Papa Clem. The loss marked the second straight defeat for Old Fashioned after being rattling off four straights wins to begin his career.
The interesting side note to Papa Clem beat I Want Revenge in February at Santa Anita. Papa Clem is the second high profile Southern California based horse to make a successful transition from the artificial "pro ride" surface to conventional dirt.
Only one more prep race to go - The Coolmore Lexington next Saturday at Keeneland. A full field is expected headed by Derby contender Square Eddie.
Many Questions but any answers?
As the "Road to the Kentucky Derby" winds down, we have a solid group of five or six favorites led by Wood Memorial winner I Want Revenge. But will today's two major prep races, the Toyota Blue Grass and the Arkansas Derby help clear up the rest of potential field for the Derby?
The Blue Grass has always been good barometer of who is going to win the Kentucky Derby. The race has produced 23 winners but the caveat is that only two winners of the Blue Grass in the past 37 years have gone on to win the "Run for the Roses." It is important to note that Street Sense (2nd, 2007) and Thunder Gulch (1995, 4th) have gone on to the win Derby despite not winning the Blue Grass in the last 14 years.
Fast forward to this afternoon and is there a Derby winner amongst the field of 11? Hold Me Back is the legitimate early favorite as he has won three of four starts and never lost on the "artificial" dirt known as Polytrack. Keeneland has that same type of surface. But even if Hold Me Back wins today, does that make him a legitimate contender for the Derby?
Then, what do you with the horses who don't win the Blue Grass? A lot of them have an built-in excuse if they don't like the Polytrack.
In the Arkansas Derby, trainer Larry Jones tries to get Old Fashioned back into the winners' circle after his defeat at the hands of 56-1 longshot Win Willy. If Old Fashioned wins, then he jumps back into the uppper echelon of Derby contenders.
Jumping back into the Derby picture yesterday was Square Eddie. He was dismissed as a candidate for the Derby in January when he was injured but is expected to return to the races next Saturday at Keeneland in the Lexington Stakes, the final Derby prep.
So even though last week, it looked like we settled a solid top five or six horses for the Derby, today can muddy the waters quite a bit.
The Blue Grass has always been good barometer of who is going to win the Kentucky Derby. The race has produced 23 winners but the caveat is that only two winners of the Blue Grass in the past 37 years have gone on to win the "Run for the Roses." It is important to note that Street Sense (2nd, 2007) and Thunder Gulch (1995, 4th) have gone on to the win Derby despite not winning the Blue Grass in the last 14 years.
Fast forward to this afternoon and is there a Derby winner amongst the field of 11? Hold Me Back is the legitimate early favorite as he has won three of four starts and never lost on the "artificial" dirt known as Polytrack. Keeneland has that same type of surface. But even if Hold Me Back wins today, does that make him a legitimate contender for the Derby?
Then, what do you with the horses who don't win the Blue Grass? A lot of them have an built-in excuse if they don't like the Polytrack.
In the Arkansas Derby, trainer Larry Jones tries to get Old Fashioned back into the winners' circle after his defeat at the hands of 56-1 longshot Win Willy. If Old Fashioned wins, then he jumps back into the uppper echelon of Derby contenders.
Jumping back into the Derby picture yesterday was Square Eddie. He was dismissed as a candidate for the Derby in January when he was injured but is expected to return to the races next Saturday at Keeneland in the Lexington Stakes, the final Derby prep.
So even though last week, it looked like we settled a solid top five or six horses for the Derby, today can muddy the waters quite a bit.
Bluegrass Bound
Heading out the door to attend one of the greatest days in racing...The Toyota Blue Grass.
By no means does it compare to the Breeders' Cup, Kentucky Oaks or Derby but to see a racetrack full of people is a wonderful sight. When you walk through the gates at Keeenland, especially on a day like today, it's like going back in time. People dressed well, a large crowd and the people in Kentucky really appreciate horse racing for more than just the gambling aspect.
More from Keeneland shortly.
By no means does it compare to the Breeders' Cup, Kentucky Oaks or Derby but to see a racetrack full of people is a wonderful sight. When you walk through the gates at Keeenland, especially on a day like today, it's like going back in time. People dressed well, a large crowd and the people in Kentucky really appreciate horse racing for more than just the gambling aspect.
More from Keeneland shortly.
Sunday, April 5, 2009
Derby Trainer in Trouble?
Ed DeRosa at Thoroughbred Times wrote a story on trainer Jeff Mullins (pictured on far right) Sunday afternoon which alleges that Mullins attempted to administer an over-the-counter cough suppressant called Air Power to Gato Go Win. The horse was slated to run in the Bay Shore Stakes, part of the Wood Memorial Day card on Saturday at Aqueduct.
Giving a horse cough medicine certainly seems fairly innocuous and the story might be a little overblown. But if proved true by the New York Racing Stewards, shame on Mullins for being stupid enough to walk into a barn under surveillance with a syringe.
The Thoroughbred Times story was clear to point out that I Want Revenge, the likely Kentucky Derby favorite after winning the Wood Memorial, was not administered any medication on race day so he would appear to be in the clear.
The simple fact is that the last thing Thoroughbred Racing needs is another black eye. Racing has had a knack over the last few years to "take one step forward and then two steps back."
Mullins may have simply tried to give Gato Go Win cough medicine if he came down with an ailment. Let's hope that's the case.
The Derby is less than a month away and it's the one time of year where non-racing fans pay attention to the sport and a chance to garner more fans which the sport desperately needs. The last thing you want in the days and weeks leading up to the "Run for the Roses" are more and more questions about illegal medication and the perception that most trainers in the game cheat to win.
Those questions hounded Richard Dutrow, Jr. through the Triple Crown run of Big Brown last year as he's had a checkered reputation over the years. Now it appears that Mullins maybe in the media bulls eye if the allegations prove true.
Mullins, who has been busted in the past for equine drug positives needs to come out and tackle the issue head on. Anything short of that will leave a potential black cloud hanging over one of the greatest sporting events in the world.
(photo courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire)
Sunday Follow-up
The racing world is abuzz about I Want Revenge's win in Saturday's Wood Memorial. The visually impressive performance will make him the Kentucky Derby favorite pending a blowout by someone in next week's Toyota Blue Grass at Keeneland or the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn.
I Want Revenge (shown on far right) will get plenty of time to adjust to life under the Twin Spires as he leaves for Churchill Downs on Monday. Not that spending nearly a month training at Churchill Downs guarantees a victory but trainer Jeff Mullins is doing the right thing.
I Want Revenge has already made two round trips from Los Angeles to New York so limiting his travel is a smart move for a young horse. Be curious how many days trainer Jeff Mullins will spend in Louisville but he is not a Derby rookie.
"He came out of the race real well," Mullins said from Aqueduct this mornning. "We had him out this morning, went over him from head to toe and everything looks good."
For those who love numbers (like me), the Daily Racing Form has their trademarked Beyer Speed Figures. There haven't been many 3-year-olds on the Road the Derby with Beyer Figures over 100.
I Want Revenge ran a 113 in the Gotham last month so I wondered if he could top that lofty figure. Meanwhile, Pioneerof the Nile, who won Saturday's Santa Anita Derby, had never broken 100 in any race. After going to drf.com, here are the Beyer numbers for yesterday.
I Want Revenge's - 103
Pioneerof the Nile - 96
That's good news for both horses. The 96 for Pioneerof the Nile is his career best and I Want Revenge dropped 10 points from his Gotham victory but that should bode well for him in the Derby.
The interesting part to keep in mind is that Pioneerof the Nile and I Want Revenge went head-to-head twice in California and Pioneerof the Nile won both matchups. Keep in mind the racetracks in California are the artificial kind while Aqueduct and Churchill Downs have the
"traditional dirt."
When Pioneerof the Nile starts in the Derby, it will be his first start on "traditional dirt." That will bear close watching.
The mystery race of Saturday was Musket Man in the Illinois Derby. He is getting hot at the right time and quietly has posted an impressive career record of five wins in six starts. Win or lose in the Kentucky Derby, their owners got a bargain when they bought the colt at auction at Keeneland for just $17,000.
(Photo Courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire)
Saturday, April 4, 2009
Super Impressive Win For I Want Revenge
Every once in a while at the track, you see a performance that takes your breath away and leaves you shaking your head saying to yourself "how did he do that?" Saturday at Aqueduct, I saw one of those incredible feats in horse racing.
I Want Revenge, the big favorite in the Wood Memorial, gave the field a nice head start as the race began but overcame the adversity at the starting gate (on the far right) and through a rough stretch run to win the $750,000 Kentucky Derby prep race in New York.
Most times when a horse is "left at the gate", the horse gets discouraged and doesn't run or the horse make his or her run and then tires. I Want Revenge's trainer, Jeff Mullins, summed it up perfectly.
"When he missed the break, I was already heading back to the barn at that point....I thought we were done. I didn't know we had a chance."
When you see the final margin of victory of 1 1/2 lengths and the final time of 1:49.49, it doesn't seem very impressive. But, much like a box score of a basketball game when a player doesn't score a lot of points but did all the intangibles to help the team win, jockey Joe Talamo and I Want Revenge did what they had to do to win and then some.
After falling behind at the start, Talamo guided I Want To Revenge along the inside and started to make up ground slowly and steadily. Then, as the field began its turn for home, I Want Revenge made his way to fifth and then had to wait for the wall of horses in front of him to clear. Once the hole opened, Talamo bulled his way through and took the lead just before the finish line.
An impressive win to be sure.
"He had every trouble you could have in a race and still overcome it," Mullins said. "It tells me he's a pretty nice horse. That's as good as it gets right there. We've got one more show to go and if he can win that one, he's a pretty special animal."
Also smiling after the race were owners David Lanzman and IEAH Stables. IEAH just purchased 50% of the horse earlier in the week and must have had a little "deja vu." IEAH was one of the owners of 2008 Kentucky Derby winner Big Brown when the colt overcame starting in the 20th position in the gate to post one of the most impressive wins in the Derby.
Oh by the way, in case you care, the complete order of finish for the Wood was: I Want Revenge, West Side Bernie, Just a Conicidence, Atomic Rain, Imperial Council, Cellar Dweller, Lord Justice and Lime Rickey.
The biggest disappointment of the day was Imperial Council's fifth place finish. Although the horse flipped over in the paddock before the race, trainer Shug McGaughey made no excuses and said "There's no chance he's going to the Kentucky Derby."
Looking at the overall Kentucky Derby picture, the list of legitimate contenders is shrinking rapidly. Pioneerof the Nile won the Santa Anita Derby but was not impressive. Musket Man captured the Illinois Derby but beat a very, very weak field.
This day belonged to I Want Revenge and he will be your Kentucky Derby favorite and my choice for the "Run for the Roses."
(photo courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire)
Countdown to the Wood Memorial
As we count down to the final minutes before the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, the paddock is chock full of people.
Imperial Council, the second betting choice in the race, has been very hard to handle by his people and seems really keyed up today.
The rest of the horses seem very calm and not bothered by the extra attention before the race.
Horses also that are close to the lead seem to have an advantage so watch closely as the Wood Memorial gets rolling
Imperial Council, the second betting choice in the race, has been very hard to handle by his people and seems really keyed up today.
The rest of the horses seem very calm and not bothered by the extra attention before the race.
Horses also that are close to the lead seem to have an advantage so watch closely as the Wood Memorial gets rolling
Bay Shore - Sweet Victory for the Candyman
The first big race of the day at Aqueduct is in the books just as the sun is trying to break through.
Capt. Candyman Can, a horse that was once considered a major contender for the Kentucky Derby, rolled to an easy victory 3 3/4-length win over another former Derby hopeful Taqarub.
Trainer Ian Wilkes, who worked for many years for Carl Nafzger, will bring the horse right back to Churchill Downs and run him in the Matt Winn Stakes on May 16. Looks like "Derby fever" will not affect the "Candyman crew" as they are ultimately are shooting for the King's Bishop at Saratoga in August.
Capt. Candyman Can, a horse that was once considered a major contender for the Kentucky Derby, rolled to an easy victory 3 3/4-length win over another former Derby hopeful Taqarub.
Trainer Ian Wilkes, who worked for many years for Carl Nafzger, will bring the horse right back to Churchill Downs and run him in the Matt Winn Stakes on May 16. Looks like "Derby fever" will not affect the "Candyman crew" as they are ultimately are shooting for the King's Bishop at Saratoga in August.
BIG UPDATE - One Contender Out
One of major Derby contenders was scratched from the Santa Anita Derby.
The Pamplemousse, who had won three in a row, was scratched by track veterinarian Dr. Jill Bailey according to the Daily Racing Form.
That leaves the Bob Baffert-trained Pioneerof the Nile as the standout in the nine-horse field.
The Pamplemousse, who had won three in a row, was scratched by track veterinarian Dr. Jill Bailey according to the Daily Racing Form.
That leaves the Bob Baffert-trained Pioneerof the Nile as the standout in the nine-horse field.
Saturday 1:00 p.m.
In the Aqueduct Press Box for Wood Memorial Day....a Press Box that is about three-quarters full in a nice and rare site. Normally, there is just a small group of people here.
Plus the dulcet tones of track announcer Tom Durkin, the best in the game, are back from his winter hiatus. New York racing is not the same without Durkin.
It is a windy day and the clouds do not appear to want to go away. But, after a cold winter, it's in the 50's so not a bad day.
All the horses in the big races around the country are still slated to run including the four stakes races here at Aqueduct.
Will be back later as the big races get rolling.
Plus the dulcet tones of track announcer Tom Durkin, the best in the game, are back from his winter hiatus. New York racing is not the same without Durkin.
It is a windy day and the clouds do not appear to want to go away. But, after a cold winter, it's in the 50's so not a bad day.
All the horses in the big races around the country are still slated to run including the four stakes races here at Aqueduct.
Will be back later as the big races get rolling.
Friday Night
On the eve of the one of the biggest pre-Derby racing days, here's some things to look forward to tomorrow.
On my radio show (The Kentucky Winner's Circle with E.J. Clark and Molly Rosen), we will have Daily Racing Form's David Grening to talk about the Road to the Kentucky Derby and a close look at the horses running in the Wood Memorial in New York. If you are in Louisville, the show is this and every Saturday from 11:00 a.m. - 12 Noon and WKJK- AM (1080). Tune in.
All horses are a go for the big three races (Wood Memorial, Illinois Derby and Santa Anita Derby). The horses to watch in those races.
Wood Memorial - I Want Revenge and Imperial Council. For those betting on the race, don't take a very short price on I Want Revenge. He may well "bounce" after his dazzling win last month in the Gotham Stakes and Imperial Council needs the victory to assure himself a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate.
Illinois Derby - The whole field. Although Musket Man won the Tampa Derby last month, this group of 11 horses is very evenly matched and is not a very strong field. An upset here is likely and be wary of any horse who wins this race.
Santa Anita Derby - Pioneerof the Nile and The Pamplemousse. The two West Coast heavyweights have yet to meet head-to-head but they both have swept all the major 3-year-old races in Southern California. This should be a great race and a lot of people have knocked these horses in part because their times haven't been that fast and they are running on an "artificial surface" in SoCal .They should be taken seriously for the Derby if they live up to their billing Saturday.
And for those who following the road to the Kentucky Oaks, the sister race to the Derby, two of the big favorites are running this weekend.
Stardom Bound, the reigning 2-year-old champion, is the big favorite in Saturday's Ashland Stakes at Keeneland. Meanwhile, the white hot Rachel Alexandra scared off a lot her rivals as she only faces four others in the Apple Blossom at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas on Sunday. Not worth betting those races but should be fun to watch.
I will be at Aqueduct tomorrow and will be writing updates throughout the day.
Good night and "May the Horse Be With You."
On my radio show (The Kentucky Winner's Circle with E.J. Clark and Molly Rosen), we will have Daily Racing Form's David Grening to talk about the Road to the Kentucky Derby and a close look at the horses running in the Wood Memorial in New York. If you are in Louisville, the show is this and every Saturday from 11:00 a.m. - 12 Noon and WKJK- AM (1080). Tune in.
All horses are a go for the big three races (Wood Memorial, Illinois Derby and Santa Anita Derby). The horses to watch in those races.
Wood Memorial - I Want Revenge and Imperial Council. For those betting on the race, don't take a very short price on I Want Revenge. He may well "bounce" after his dazzling win last month in the Gotham Stakes and Imperial Council needs the victory to assure himself a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate.
Illinois Derby - The whole field. Although Musket Man won the Tampa Derby last month, this group of 11 horses is very evenly matched and is not a very strong field. An upset here is likely and be wary of any horse who wins this race.
Santa Anita Derby - Pioneerof the Nile and The Pamplemousse. The two West Coast heavyweights have yet to meet head-to-head but they both have swept all the major 3-year-old races in Southern California. This should be a great race and a lot of people have knocked these horses in part because their times haven't been that fast and they are running on an "artificial surface" in SoCal .They should be taken seriously for the Derby if they live up to their billing Saturday.
And for those who following the road to the Kentucky Oaks, the sister race to the Derby, two of the big favorites are running this weekend.
Stardom Bound, the reigning 2-year-old champion, is the big favorite in Saturday's Ashland Stakes at Keeneland. Meanwhile, the white hot Rachel Alexandra scared off a lot her rivals as she only faces four others in the Apple Blossom at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas on Sunday. Not worth betting those races but should be fun to watch.
I will be at Aqueduct tomorrow and will be writing updates throughout the day.
Good night and "May the Horse Be With You."
Thursday, April 2, 2009
Thursday Night - Derby Future Wager
All is relatively quiet in the racing world. But since the final Kentucky Derby Future Wager is open, let's take a quick look at that.
The wager is open until Sunday night and you can be sure the odds will swing after Saturday's big races.
As of Thursday night, Quality Road is the 5-1 favorite. He's been running great but stay away if the odds remain close to that. You might be able to do better on Derby Day.
The horses to watch closely in the future wager are Pioneerof the Nile (currently 22-1), Imperial Council (currently 19-1) and I Want Revenge (currently 11-1).
A few horses that I would stay away from are the Dubai based colts (Regal Ransom and Desert Party) as well as Mafaaz, the British horse who run in the Toyota Blue Grass next week. Foreign horses notoriously have not run well in the Kentucky Derby so betting the horse now isn't worth the risk.
Good night and "May the horse be with you."
The wager is open until Sunday night and you can be sure the odds will swing after Saturday's big races.
As of Thursday night, Quality Road is the 5-1 favorite. He's been running great but stay away if the odds remain close to that. You might be able to do better on Derby Day.
The horses to watch closely in the future wager are Pioneerof the Nile (currently 22-1), Imperial Council (currently 19-1) and I Want Revenge (currently 11-1).
A few horses that I would stay away from are the Dubai based colts (Regal Ransom and Desert Party) as well as Mafaaz, the British horse who run in the Toyota Blue Grass next week. Foreign horses notoriously have not run well in the Kentucky Derby so betting the horse now isn't worth the risk.
Good night and "May the horse be with you."
Mid-Day Thursday - Mambo & Broadway
Here a few nuggets that emerged mid-day Thursday:
- Hello Broadway, conditioned by 2003 Kentucky Derby winning trainer Barclay Tagg (Funny Cide) was a strong contender for this year's Derby until finishing seventh last month in Tampa. Tagg indicated that Hello Broadway will likely run in an allowance race on April 10 but left open the possibility of running the Toyota Blue Grass the following day. He is currently 30th on the Kentucky Derby Graded Earnings list.
- Former 3-year-old star Mambo in Seattle tries to regain some his luster as he runs in the featured 8th race. The regally bred colt, who is trained by Neil Howard, was runner-up to Colonel John in last year's Travers Stakes but not won in his last four starts.
- Thoroughbred Times is reporting that last year's Kentucky Oaks winner Proud Spell is taking some time off after having swelling in her back (hind) ankle. Trainer Larry Jones is having a great year as he has two Derby contenders in Old Fashioned and Friesan Fire but his female star won't make a return trip to Churchill in the near future. It's too bad.
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
Maiden Voyage
Welcome to my new blog. Before we get this race started, a quick introduction is in order for those who don't me. (If you already know me, please skip ahead a couple of paragraphs.)
My love of horse racing started when I was a kid watching racing at Aqueduct and Belmont in New York. I then moved my tack to Louisville to attend the University of Louisville's Equine Administration program. While finishing up my degree in 1996, I began an internship at Churchill Downs and landed a full-time job there upon graduation in 1997. While rounding the final turn of my Churchill tenure (ok, 2003), I began co-hosting the Kentucky Winners Circle Radio Show with E.J. Clark (for those in Louisville: Saturdays, 11am, WKJK-1080 on your AM dial).
I moved back to New York in November 2004 but my love of racing has endured. I still co-host the radio show and attend the races frequently.
Now that we've crossed the finish line on my bio to-date, it's on to the blog. It is my sincerest hope that the perspective and insights I have into the racing world are both informative and intriguing (and perhaps find you a winner for the betting windows).
To say this weekend is incredibly important for the Kentucky Derby contenders, is an understatement. The potential field is starting to take shape but it looks like more than 20 want to be in the starting gate.
And what complicates it even more is that one spot is already reserved for Mafaaz, the winner of the Kentucky Derby Challenge Stakes in England last month. So with only 19 spots left, and six major races before the Derby, the scramble for cash is on.
This week's race to keep a close eye on are:
Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in NY
Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita in Los Angeles
Illinois Derby at Hawthorne in Chicago
I will update the horses to watch and the crucial money chase on Thursday.
Stay tuned!
My love of horse racing started when I was a kid watching racing at Aqueduct and Belmont in New York. I then moved my tack to Louisville to attend the University of Louisville's Equine Administration program. While finishing up my degree in 1996, I began an internship at Churchill Downs and landed a full-time job there upon graduation in 1997. While rounding the final turn of my Churchill tenure (ok, 2003), I began co-hosting the Kentucky Winners Circle Radio Show with E.J. Clark (for those in Louisville: Saturdays, 11am, WKJK-1080 on your AM dial).
I moved back to New York in November 2004 but my love of racing has endured. I still co-host the radio show and attend the races frequently.
Now that we've crossed the finish line on my bio to-date, it's on to the blog. It is my sincerest hope that the perspective and insights I have into the racing world are both informative and intriguing (and perhaps find you a winner for the betting windows).
To say this weekend is incredibly important for the Kentucky Derby contenders, is an understatement. The potential field is starting to take shape but it looks like more than 20 want to be in the starting gate.
And what complicates it even more is that one spot is already reserved for Mafaaz, the winner of the Kentucky Derby Challenge Stakes in England last month. So with only 19 spots left, and six major races before the Derby, the scramble for cash is on.
This week's race to keep a close eye on are:
Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in NY
Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita in Los Angeles
Illinois Derby at Hawthorne in Chicago
I will update the horses to watch and the crucial money chase on Thursday.
Stay tuned!
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